NFL Picks: 2026 NFC Full Season Predictions

Turnover. It’s the name of the game in the National Football League. And I even wrote about it in last year’s introduction.

Why am I leading with it again?

Because, in addition to the changes in the standings that are so inherent to how the sport is built, we enter 2026 with ten head new head coaches — some are returning veterans, but new to their respective teams. That’s basically one-third of the league, and it is tied for the most in an offseason — it happened four other times, and most recently in 2022.

What’s most interesting about this massive shift is that, in a league where stability is rewarded, the metaphorical door is wide open for plenty of teams to take advantage simply based on their own continuity.

If they actually will take advantage of that is a completely different story.

Below are the full season predictions for the 2026 National Football Conference, with top over/under win-total plays highlighted where applicable. Over/under win-totals were taken as advertised from DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and Caesers Sportsbook. In the event that different win totals were shown across the Sportsbook by a half-game, the win total up to -160 was used. In the past, -140 was the limit, but Sportsbooks have since adjusted their numbers.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys – 6-11 – 4th in NFC East – UNDER 9.5 Wins (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

I had to reread what I wrote about the Dallas Cowboys last year because I had left myself a note that contained just two words: Brian Schottenheimer. I have absolutely no confidence in his ability to lead a team to victories, but I found that, as much as I prepared myself to stay away from Dallas altogether last year, I pulled back slightly because the Cowboys seemed so overlooked. In the end, I should have stuck with my original read. The longtime offensive coordinator who now enters his second year as a head coach has done nothing to force me to pivot off my initial stance, and I won’t make the same mistake twice.

New York Giants – 7-10 – 3rd in NFC East

It doesn’t take much for me to stay away from a team that has gained any sort of hype, but the New York Giants were even easier to avoid than the rest. For starters, I do love the hiring of head coach John Harbaugh, and I fully expect him to have a positive impact on the team. How positive remains to be seen, and that’s where I hesitate. Much of the buzz around New York has also emerged from the expectation that second-year quarterback Jaxson Dart will take a major step forward — that, and fan-favorite Cam Skattebo will return to the backfield after having his season cut short due to injury. But, none of those factors are guaranteed, and it is genuinely risky to lean on a running back that has already gotten hurt and a quarterback who plays a reckless brand of football. We also shouldn’t overlook that Dart was 4-8 as a starter last year, so it’s not like the team is building on an excellent foundation in terms of success. It also doesn’t help that New York has one of the worst offensive lines in football.

Philadelphia Eagles – 10-7 – 2nd in NFC East, Wild Card Berth

I feel like I am about to copy-and-paste what I wrote in the AFC Prediction’s version of the East division. That is, my expectation that at least two other division teams are going to struggle means that, by default, at least one other will rise to the top. Unlike the Bills in the AFC East, I’m not seeing as much love for the Philadelphia Eagles as there has been in the past. And I’m not entirely sure why. Perhaps the football-watching world is starting to sour on quarterback Jalen Hurts, but that’s likely because it anointed him as one of the league’s best so early — which is not completely outrageous seeing as he has already won a Super Bowl. It does seem like the loss of top wide receiver A.J. Brown is also driving some of the negativity, but Philadelphia easily has one of the best offensive lines in the league — according to most sources, too — and it finished 2025 with a top-five defense in terms of scoring. There is some concern for regression, but it shouldn’t be enough to knock the Eagles out of the playoffs without too many other division rivals rising to the top.

Washington Commanders – 11-6 – NFC East Winner – OVER 7.5 Wins (+105 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

There is one, however, that should push past all other opponents in the division, and it’s the team I hesitatingly targeted last year. I’m almost always worried about second-year quarterbacks, but I fought the urge to bail on Jayden Daniels of the Washington Commanders heading into last season. Shame on me. I was rewarded for my loyalty with only seven starts and a 2-5 record in those games. But the same reason why I supported Daniels last year is exactly why I want to turn to him again. That is, he protects the football quite well. In fact, in his seven starts, Daniels threw eight touchdowns and only three interceptions, and his interception percentage was even lower than in his rookie year. Washington had quite a fall from one year ago — truly flipping its record around in the wrong direction from 12-5 to 5-12 and ranking dead last in yards allowed — but the door is open for the Commanders to walk through it, and they will.

NFC South