Welcome to the Wednesday edition of the daily fantasy hockey morning coffee. We have another small four-game slate to work with for our DFS needs tonight.
Tonight’s Slate:
Calgary Flames @ Toronto Maple Leafs (Toronto, -150, 6 over/under)
Chicago Blackhawks @ Washington Capitals (Washington, -135, 5.5 over/under)
Philadelphia Flyers @ Edmonton Oilers (Edmonton, -125, 5.5 over/under)
Ottawa Senators @ Anaheim Ducks (Anaheim, -115, 5.5 over/under)
The team I want to go heavy with tonight is the Toronto Maple Leafs. Tonight the Leafs get a Calgary team that just allowed five goals to the lowly Philadelphia Flyers on Monday night and have allowed 12 goals over their past two games. Additionally, Calgary lost 4-1 to Toronto on Nov. 28 and were only able to muster 20 shots on goal. I really thought Calgary was poised to have a big game against a Philadelphia team that had lost 10 straight but Calgary’s shoddy defense and goaltending proved too much to overcome. Against a more offensively potent team we could see another crooked number on the board tonight. Toronto’s xGF/60 of 2.76 is the second highest in the league in 5v5 situations. But power play stacks are also an option for Toronto as Calgary’s penalty kill rate in November was an NHL second-worst 71.4 percent.
Toronto has scored an NHL third-best 3.50 goals for per on the season and averaged 3.33 goals for in November. Calgary allowed an NHL-worst 3.31 goals against last month and on the season have averaged a league eighth-worst 3.26 goals against per game. On the season Toronto has a SCF/60 of 31.65 — second-best in the league. Their HDCF/60 of 12.05 is the fourth-highest in the NHL. Over their past 10 games Calgary has a league third-worst GA/60 of 3.17 while Toronto has a ninth-best GF/60 of 2.64 over that same time frame. Over Calgary’s past 10 games they have a team save percentage of just 89.58 — third-worst in the NHL.
What’s interesting is Calgary’s CF% of 53.23 is actually the sixth-best in the NHL over the past 10 games and their SCA/60 of 27.28 is average for the league (over that 10-game time frame). These numbers, in addition to their league seventh-best 3.38 goals for per game in November, led me to believe they could put up nice numbers against Philadelphia on Monday night — even with some numbers stacked against them. But tonight we’ll stack against Calgary …
Our Toronto Snapshot
| Scor | Scor | Scor | Scor | Goal | Goal | Goal | Assi | Assi | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | EV | PP | GW | EV | PP | S | BLK |
| Auston Matthews | C | 24 | 13 | 13 | 26 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 78 | 23 |
| Nazem Kadri | C | 28 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 64 | 9 |
| James van Riemsdyk | LW | 27 | 13 | 7 | 20 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 78 | 9 |
| William Nylander | C | 28 | 5 | 15 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 70 | 1 |
| Morgan Rielly | D | 28 | 3 | 15 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 68 | 33 |
| Patrick Marleau | LW | 28 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 70 | 4 |
| Mitch Marner | C | 28 | 2 | 14 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 53 | 11 |
| Zach Hyman | C | 28 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 54 | 15 |
| Connor Brown | RW | 28 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 33 | 12 |
| Jake Gardiner | D | 28 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 34 | 37 |
| Ron Hainsey | D | 28 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 29 | 51 |
| Tyler Bozak | C | 27 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 39 | 6 |
| Nikita Zaitsev | D | 28 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 32 | 80 |
| Dominic Moore | C | 19 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 9 |
| Matt Martin | LW | 26 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 23 | 7 |
| Leo Komarov | C | 28 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 46 | 23 |
| Andreas Borgman | D | 26 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 29 | 17 |
| Connor Carrick | D | 17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 20 |
| Team Total | 28 | 98 | 155 | 253 | 79 | 19 | 16 | 119 | 36 | 872 | 386 |
Line One Stack
ZACH HYMAN $3.9K
AUSTON MATTHEWS $7.9K
CONNOR BROWN $3.4K
It’s risky but the second team I have interest in tonight is the