Welcome to the Wednesday edition of the daily fantasy hockey morning coffee. We have another small four-game slate to work with for our DFS needs tonight.
Calgary Flames @ Toronto Maple Leafs (Toronto, -150, 6 over/under)
Chicago Blackhawks @ Washington Capitals (Washington, -135, 5.5 over/under)
Philadelphia Flyers @ Edmonton Oilers (Edmonton, -125, 5.5 over/under)
Ottawa Senators @ Anaheim Ducks (Anaheim, -115, 5.5 over/under)
The team I want to go heavy with tonight is the Toronto Maple Leafs. Tonight the Leafs get a Calgary team that just allowed five goals to the lowly Philadelphia Flyers on Monday night and have allowed 12 goals over their past two games. Additionally, Calgary lost 4-1 to Toronto on Nov. 28 and were only able to muster 20 shots on goal. I really thought Calgary was poised to have a big game against a Philadelphia team that had lost 10 straight but Calgary’s shoddy defense and goaltending proved too much to overcome. Against a more offensively potent team we could see another crooked number on the board tonight. Toronto’s xGF/60 of 2.76 is the second highest in the league in 5v5 situations. But power play stacks are also an option for Toronto as Calgary’s penalty kill rate in November was an NHL second-worst 71.4 percent.
Toronto has scored an NHL third-best 3.50 goals for per on the season and averaged 3.33 goals for in November. Calgary allowed an NHL-worst 3.31 goals against last month and on the season have averaged a league eighth-worst 3.26 goals against per game. On the season Toronto has a SCF/60 of 31.65 — second-best in the league. Their HDCF/60 of 12.05 is the fourth-highest in the NHL. Over their past 10 games Calgary has a league third-worst GA/60 of 3.17 while Toronto has a ninth-best GF/60 of 2.64 over that same time frame. Over Calgary’s past 10 games they have a team save percentage of just 89.58 — third-worst in the NHL.
What’s interesting is Calgary’s CF% of 53.23 is actually the sixth-best in the NHL over the past 10 games and their SCA/60 of 27.28 is average for the league (over that 10-game time frame). These numbers, in addition to their league seventh-best 3.38 goals for per game in November, led me to believe they could put up nice numbers against Philadelphia on Monday night — even with some numbers stacked against them. But tonight we’ll stack against Calgary …
Our Toronto Snapshot
|James van Riemsdyk||LW||27||13||7||20||8||5||1||4||3||78||9|
Line One Stack
ZACH HYMAN $3.9K
AUSTON MATTHEWS $7.9K
CONNOR BROWN $3.4K
It’s risky but the second team I have interest in tonight is the