With three games already played – on Thanksgiving – to kick off Week 12, we are presented with a slightly smaller slate of games, despite no teams on bye weeks. There does appear to exist a common thread throughout the matchups, as we could be in store for a high number of close games and back-and-forth matchups.
As always, the game flow projections tend to favor the side of the game most likely to be attempting to keep pace with the other. This leads to an inflated number of targets across-the-board, as the passing game – in the form of quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends – favors the team expected to be trailing while running backs come from the teams most likely to be protecting late leads.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 12 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears
Luke’s DFS Take: We begin this week’s column with my easiest decision of the week: avoid the Chicago Bears like the plague. They were already going to be without Alshon Jeffery for four weeks, then Zach Miller and Jay Cutler joined Brian Hoyer on the injured list. The Bears’ offense has not been good, in general and, with this many people missing, it might get ugly on Sunday. As a result, the Titans’ defense may be a must-start this week. Assuming Tennessee takes care of business, this could quickly develop into DeMarco Murray getting extra carries as the Titans try to run the clock out relatively early. The Bears’ defense has not been terrible enough that an all-out high-scoring affair develops, but Murray is still the player in best position to succeed.
Mario’s DFS Take: It was not a good week for the Chicago Bears. After falling short of pulling off the ‘upset’ against the Giants – without wide receiver Alshon Jeffery – they then lost Jay Cutler and Zach Miller. With so many injuries piling up on an already-poor squad, this appears to be too much for Chicago to handle. Now, both the Titans’ defense and offense are filled with potential, but mainly through the running game as it is both the team’s lifeblood and the area of attack that works best with the expected game flow. DeMarco Murray is, therefore, a potential must-play in a game that should remain one-sided, with the usual duo of Marcus Mariota and Delanie Walker in play, as well.
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