While it might be the first full 16-game schedule in weeks, we still have a lighter slate of DFS action, as three games were already played on Thanksgiving. But, we also have a high number of potentially lopsided games that can lead to a clear game flow by the end. In addition, this might be the first time in weeks that we haven’t constantly pointed to defenses as the only play from a particular game. There will be points scored in Week 12.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 12 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take: After an exciting win in Seattle, there is reason to think that Atlanta may finally be turning the corner and getting back to the type of play we got used to seeing last season. The matchup this week certainly allows for them to continue rolling, as the Buccaneers defense is allowing the second most passing yards per game in the league. Matt Ryan‘s yardage has been down recently, but he has thrown for two touchdowns in four consecutive games, and his yardage should come back up in this favorable matchup. Both he and the up-and-down Julio Jones are strong options this week. If Devonta Freeman were to be out again, Tevin Coleman is a strong play as he figures to keep seeing a heavy workload after back-to-back weeks of 20 carries. The game flow also likely plays into Coleman’s hands as his team should have a lead for most of this game. Mike Evans had a solid return last week, and the 10 targets that he saw from the still-starting quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick, were promising. This week, as his team is likely to fall behind, he could see an increase in targets as the Buccaneers may be forced to throw more often. Evans still has to break 100 yards in a game this season, but with Fitzpatrick likely to be force feeding him in an attempt to come from behind, he has a decent chance to break that streak this week.
Mario’s DFS Take: That Ryan Fitzpatrick sure knows how to win football games! After all, he is undefeated in 2017. Even Tom Brady has two losses to his name. Not Fitzpatrick. He’s perfect. Of course, it helps that he played only two games on the year and both were against now-4-6 squads, but that is neither here-nor-there. Then again, if it does matter, we can’t take his output seriously. But, we can absolutely buy into Fitzpatrick’s self-assessment that he loves to throw to his favorite receiver. With Mike Evans back from his one-game suspension, Fitzpatrick tossed eleven passes in his direction. Expect more of the same on Sunday, especially as the Buccaneers try to keep pace with the Falcons by throwing the ball. Throwing will also benefit Atlanta, as Tampa Bay has allowed the second-most passing yards and third-most net-yards-per-pass-attempt in the league. Julio Jones is a great option, as always.