We have an unusual split of games in Week 10, where there are more in the late afternoon slate than the early window. This offers a few opportunities to mix-and-match contests, as well as an intriguing pair of night games to target in Showdown and Primetime lineups.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 10 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There have been few quarterbacks that have been playing as well as Deshaun Watson lately. He has this Texans offense ranked sixth in the league in passing yards despite being 24th in the league in pass attempts, good for third in the league in net yards per pass attempt. The Brown defense can apply pressure, but it is hard to imagine them slowing down Watson this week. The Browns offense is going to be welcoming back Nick Chubb this week, and against this Texans defense that cannot stop anyone, the Browns should enjoy plenty of success on the ground this week.
Targets: Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller V, Brandin Cooks, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Between the ineffectiveness of both teams’ defenses and the success each offense has had in recent weeks, the game between the Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns should be one of the best for fantasy purposes. Cleveland is also expected to get running back Nick Chubb back in the lineup, which raises the amount of viable options even higher. I never like to dig through a game and find the select players who could explode, so the good news is that a game stack from here is completely acceptable.
Targets: Everyone
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None, but Duke Johnson is probably a ‘must-play’ at his price if David Johnson is out
Washington Football Team at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Thanks to poor offensive play and very good defensive play, Washington has seen just two of their eight games exceed 45 total points. In today’s high scoring NFL, 45 points is not a high total for a game, so to only have two games break that number tells you all you need to know about the Football Team. There is enough isolated volume within both offenses to make some players viable targets, but this is not a game worth having much fantasy expectations on.
Targets: Antonio Gibson, J.D. McKissic, Terry McLaurin, Danny Amendola and T.J. Hockenson
Fades: Alex Smith and Matthew Stafford
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As of now, I am proceeding with the expectation that Matthew Stafford and Alex Smith are the quarterbacks on Sunday for the Detroit Lions and Washington Football Team. Things might change, but everything is trending in that direction. The reality is that it wouldn’t make a tremendous difference in either direction if one of the two were to miss the game, only because the targets are more of the skill position players than the quarterbacks — the exception might be someone like wide receiver Danny Amendola losing targets if Stafford is out. Ultimately, I’m not looking for too much offense from this matchup anyway, and the defenses are arguably the better play.
Targets: Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, Danny Amendola, and Detroit’s defense
Fades: Both quarterbacks
Must-Owns: None
Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Jake Luton was surprisingly effective last week and gave the Jaguars a chance to win. With that said, playing against the Packers is a different animal, and with how bad the Jaguars defense has been, the Packers should be playing with a massive lead throughout. Luton showed he can keep this offense viable, but given the massive deficit he is likely to be facing, I think it may be smart to back off this week. After last week’s showing, and his cheap price, Luton may be a popular play in this positive game script. Playing a popular, cheap, rookie late round pick quarterback who is making just his career start doesn’t seem like a smart play to me.
Targets: DJ Chark Jr., Chris Conley, Aaron Rodgers, Jamaal Williams and Davante Adams
Fades: Jake Luton
Must-Owns: Aaron Jones
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The obvious storyline of the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Green Bay Packers is the second act of rookie quarterback Jake Luton. Simply put, if you expect him to repeat his performance on Sunday, then most of the Jaguars’ offense is in-play — which it might be anyway because of the game script that forces it to throw often. Otherwise, the obvious target is Green Bay’s running back, Aaron Jones, as his team expects to be leading and running out the clock from the opening kickoff. More importantly, if the game is tight, Jones sees plenty of volume out of the backfield to remain viable.
Targets: James Robinson, D.J. Chark, Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, and Robert Tonyan
Fades: Jake Luton
Must-Owns: Aaron Jones
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In what is a shockingly important game for the NFC East, it is hard to have a ton of fantasy excitement. The strength of both of these teams has been their defenses, and they have really been the only reason these teams have the few wins they do have. The Eagles offense has the sixth fewest yards this season while the Giants offense has the second fewest yards. In their previous meeting, the offenses were actually productive by their own standards, but with the game behind them, these defenses should have a better idea how to handle the opposing offense.
Targets: Travis Fulgham, Sterling Shepard and both defenses
Fades: Carson Wentz and Daniel Jones
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While I eventually came around to liking this game for my against-the-spread picks, I don’t see any particular value for fantasy. I’m sure there are some one-offs that can be used in the likes of a pass-catcher from either team, but the reality is that the defenses should keep either offense from outright exploding.
Targets: Travis Fulgham, Jalen Reagor, Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, and Evan Engram
Fades: Both quarterbacks
Must-Owns: None
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It feels a bit unfair for the Panthers who have to face the Buccaneers for a second time this season directly after the Bucs got beat up by the Saints. In Week 2, the Bucs piled up 31 points, and I have to imagine after the major dud last week, they rebound once again. Speaking of unfair, it is seeming likely that after finally returning from injury, Christian McCaffrey is trending towards missing this week’s contest. Even without McCaffrey, this Panthers offense has been somewhat surprisingly effective all season, and I like their odds to move the ball enough to keep this game moderately close.
Targets: Entire Buccaneers offense, Mike Davis, Robby Anderson, DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel
Fades: Buccaneers defense
Must-Owns: None (Although I am leaning towards forcing Ronald Jones into my lineups this week)
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Because I trust the trend so much, I ultimately wanted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to get shutout instead of scoring an obligatory three points and preventing said shutout. Had Tampa Bay gone sixty minutes without putting a point on the board, we could have looked for a big explosion in the encore. As it stands, the team will still come out firing and look to grab an early lead, but we just don’t have the trend to support it. The main storyline for the Carolina Panthers is, as it has been lately, the health of running back Christian McCaffrey. We all saw how effective Mike Davis can be if he slides into the starting lineup again, but I’m hesitant to roll him out against Tampa Bay’s defense, as the team just allowed a season-high 38 points.
Targets: Mike Davis — although he is not a ‘must-play’ for me — Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel, Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, and Ronald Jones
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Broncos were exactly what we expected last week, and it pretty much sums up who they are as a team. They struggle early and dig themselves a hole before piling up garbage time yards and points and mounting some sort of comeback. Against an efficient Raiders offense, and a poor Raiders defense, it feels pretty safe to expect a pretty similar outcome this week. The major difference between this game and last week’s game against the Falcons is that once the Raiders have their lead, they should be able to hammer Josh Jacobs and control the ball enough to limit the upside of the Broncos offense in their garbage time comeback.
Targets: Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, Derek Carr and Darren Waller
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Josh Jacobs
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Have we seen anything new from the Las Vegas Raiders to make us think that they will do anything other than spread the ball around through the air and run endlessly with Josh Jacobs? No? Okay, then. We have our gameplan from one side of the matchup. For the Denver Broncos, the team finally insisted on getting rookie wide receiver Jerry Jeudy more touches, and we, as fantasy owners, should be grateful. If he can continue seeing a high level of looks from his quarterback, we can continue leaning on him.
Targets: Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller, and Jerry Jeudy
Fades: None, but I’m hesitant to pick between the Raiders’ wide receivers and Broncos’ running backs
Must-Owns: None
Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It is truly amazing that the Chargers have lost six games this season — there is nothing more to say about it. It is hard to really place blame anywhere considering the offense has been elite all season and the defense has been at least average. The Chargers are significantly out-losing their actual performance while the Dolphins continue to find amazing ways to win games. Eventually, I have to think that the football gods will be fair to the Chargers, and against this Dolphins team, it feels like the perfect time to give both teams what they deserve.
Targets: Justin Herbert, Mike Williams, Chargers defense and Mike Gesicki
Fades: Tua Tagovailoa and both teams murky running back situations
Must-Owns: Keenan Allen
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I know that the Miami Dolphins are currently allowing the fourth-fewest points-per-game, but the defense actually ranks 22nd in yards-per-game. The Los Angeles Chargers are tallying the second-most yards-per-game. Los Angeles’ offense is, once again, in-play. The Dolphins have remained effective, and rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa performed much better in his second game than first, but I’m not going too overboard with Miami’s skill position players.
Targets: Chargers offense
Fades: Most of Miami’s defense
Must-Owns: None
Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The immediate reaction to seeing this game is that it has to be high-scoring. Now it may seem strange considering how high I was on them last week, but I don’t love the Bills this week. That win against Seattle was essentially the perfect football game from start to finish. That is something we really have not seen from the Bills, and I’m not sure I can expect them to make that happen again. The Bills have talent, but I don’t see them beating two NFC West teams in a row, and after last week, I see a let down coming.
Targets: Stefon Diggs, Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins
Fades: The rest of the Bills offense
Must-Owns: Chase Edmonds
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I keep writing about the Arizona Cardinals playing in games that drift toward the lower-end of the scoring scale — at least, lower than many would expect — but the matchup with the Buffalo Bills pushes the ceiling higher. Buffalo’s defense has not been good, and the Cardinals just lost a tough game after scoring more than 30 points. That’s actually the first time it’s happened, all season, and it should further lean on Arizona trying to outpace Buffalo instead of winning a slow, grinding game. Buffalo would likely agree, as it is still an impressive 4-1 when allowing at least 380 yards of total offense to an opponent.
Targets: Everyone from both teams
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None, but it will be a ‘must’ to own someone from this matchup
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Rams are coming off a bye week which followed their most embarrassing game of the season. Their offense had four turnovers against the Dolphins in a game they completely gave away. The Rams are a well coached team with plenty of talent, and I fully expect them to bounce back against this pathetic Seahawks defense. No matter what happens in any game, it is all but a certainty that the Seahawks offense will be productive. They have scored at least 27 points in every game while surpassing 300 yards of offense in each as well. I don’t see any outcome in this NFC West battle that doesn’t involve both teams putting up tons of points.
Targets: All offensive players
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None, but this game is a must target
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I am thoroughly excited for the NFC West showdown between the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks, but more as a football fan than a fantasy owner. The reality is that we should see a tight game in which one drive after another is matched. That likely leads to offense thriving — which is basically how the Seahawks operate on a given week. The problem is that the divisional familiarity between the teams might lead to some strengths being limited, in which case I won’t overly target this game for more than a mini-stack.
Targets: Everyone from both offenses
Fades: Both defense
Must-Owns: Cooper Kupp
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The New Orleans Saints have played five of their eight games as one possession games, and all of their wins (excluding the two against the Buccaneers) have been by six or fewer points. Considering how well coached the 49ers are, and the fact that they should be getting reinforcements this week, I completely expect them to be competitive. The Saints offense has put up at least 24 points in every game, so in order for the 49ers to be competitive, their offense is going to have to be effective, and I believe they will be.
Targets: Nick Mullens, Jerick McKinnon, Richie James, Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Brandon Aiyuk
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’ve written about this in the past, but San Francisco 49ers quarterback Nick Mullens has had his moments of brilliance. Surely, it isn’t often, but that’s the point. He isn’t great because his big games aren’t sustainable nor consistent, but they do happen. I won’t shy away from him and his offense as they try to avoid the disaster we saw last Thursday night. There should also be some more healthy options on the 49ers’ offense that I would be willing to target. Of course, the usual suspects from the New Orleans Saints are worth a look, where I will now lean on Michael Thomas as he is clearly a major force on the field.
Targets: Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, Nick Mullens, Jerick McKinnon, and Brandon Aiyuk
Fades: Saints defense
Must-Owns: None
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I am disappointed in the injury/COVID news for the Steelers because I was already planning on saying the Bengals were going to win this game. The Steelers may be undefeated, but their journey to getting there has been far less impressive than the actual record. The Steelers have narrowly avoided defeat, or held on to slim leads, against a slew of mediocre opponents. The Bengals themselves have been up and down throughout the season, but they are an up and coming team with talent playing an undeserving undefeated team, and they are coming off a bye week. This game had all the makings of an upset, and that was without all of the major question marks surrounding the Steelers. With this Steelers defense, I can’t see the Bengals winning a shootout, so I’m expecting a lower scoring upset victory here.
Targets: Giovanni Bernard, Tyler Boyd, Bengals defense, and Juju Smith-Schuster
Fades: Joe Burrow and Ben Roethlisberger
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The news about the Pittsburgh Steelers’ players dealing with possible quarantines due to the coronavirus could lead to fantasy owners shying away from the team. The reality is that the Cincinnati Bengals’ defense has not been good — especially against the run, where it ranks dead last in yards-per-carry — and we can’t possibly avoid players from Pittsburgh altogether. The good news for Cincinnati is that the Steelers’ defense has weakened, of late, and the team has allowed at least 21 points in five-of-its-eight games. The Bengals’ offense has not been efficient, but it has continued to produce points and yards via volume. That should remain the case on Sunday.
Targets: James Conner, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Joe Burrow, and Tyler Boyd
Fades: Mostly everyone else
Must-Owns: None, but James Conner is close
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I have been down on the Ravens all season, and the numbers support that thinking — at least, for the offense. With that said, this Patriots team is wildly unimpressive right now. Their defense is fresh off a game in which Joe Flacco and the Jets just tore them apart. Their offense is down to spare parts, and Cam Newton is struggling to complete passes thrown under any bit of pressure. The Ravens defense should be able to absolutely eat this Patriots offense alive. With the defense controlling the game, the Ravens offense should be put in position to score enough points to put this game out of question early.
Targets: Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards (both if Mark Ingram is out again), Mark Andrews and Jakobi Meyers
Fades: The rest of the Patriots offense
Must-Owns: Ravens defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Thinking strictly along the lines of a Primetime or ‘contrarian’ lineup, I feel like owning players from the New England Patriots is a must. We’ve seen wide receiver Jakobi Meyers blossom and develop a rapport with quarterback Cam Newton, and that’s a good starting point for a lineup. Otherwise, we turn to the Baltimore Ravens and, of course, Lamar Jackson — who probably a must-own in any Showdown lineup. Of course, both defenses are an option.
Targets: Cam Newton, Jakobi Meyers, J.K. Dobbins, Marquise Brown, and both defenses
Fades: Too much exposure to either offense
Must-Owns: Lamar Jackson in a Showdown lineup
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: You can make a very easy argument that these two teams deserve to have each other’s records, but no matter what the records say, the Vikings clearly look like the better team right now. A large part of that is the fact that Dalvin Cook is playing impossibly good football at the moment. The Bears defense is good, but it is hard to imagine them having the key to slowing down Cook and the Vikings offense right now. With that said, the Bears simply never go away or let a game get too out of hand. Of their nine games, all but one game has been decided by eight or fewer points. Their offense will do just enough to make the game seem closer than it ever really was.
Targets: Adam Thielen, Nick Foles, Allen Robinson II, Darnell Mooney and Anthony Miler
Fades: Kirk Cousins
Must-Owns: Dalvin Cook
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We have to start off with recognizing how dominant Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook has been, and it means that he is the focal point of a solid Chicago Bears defense. There’s the first decision to be made with a Primetime or Showdown lineup: how to handle Cook. I’m sure I’ll own him in one format, but I definitely want exposure to quarterback Kirk Cousins and wide receiver Adam Thielen, both of whom have been relatively quiet in recent weeks. We can’t overlook the Bears’ offense, however, as it will go against a Vikings defense that is allowing the fourth-most yards-per-game. It has done a better job of keeping opponents out of the endzone, of late, but it is still weak overall.
Targets: Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, Nick Foles, Allen Robinson, and Darnell Mooney
Fades: Chicago’s running backs
Must-Owns: None