There’s already been some shuffling in the schedule, this week, as the game between the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers was moved to Sunday. It’s currently not included in this writeup — mainly because of concerns that it won’t be played — but we will update the column accordingly upon news that it will be included in the main slate.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 12 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Las Vegas Raiders at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It is clear that playing the Chiefs brings out the very best in the Raiders, but it is also clear that their defense is a major liability. I have no doubt that Derek Carr and the Raiders offense will be effective against this Falcons defense that has allowed over 300 yards of offense in every game this season. With that said, coming off a terrible showing last week, I am even more confident in a bounce back showing from Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense.
Targets: Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, Nelson Agholor, Henry Ruggs III, Darren Waller, Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage and Hayden Hurst
Fades: Julio Jones (even if he plays it is impossible to trust his hamstring right now)
Must-Owns: Matt Ryan
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While I try to never be too reactionary or aggressive, I find it hard to think that offense won’t be the answer in the game between the Atlanta Falcons and Las Vegas Raiders. Both teams have been quite bad defensively at various times throughout the year, and each offense has had its moments of brilliance. The real key is the game flow — and it’s one of the best of the week. The Raiders will want to run the ball with-or-without a lead, which makes them one of the more reliable offenses of the slate. The real beauty comes from Atlanta’s passing game, where the Falcons will either establish a lead by taking to the air against a terrible Las Vegas pass defense — fifth-most passing-yards-allowed-per-game — or will need to throw to keep pace.
Targets: Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, Henry Ruggs III, Darren Waller, Calvin Ridley, and Todd Gurley
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Matt Ryan
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Knowing what we know about both of these teams, this feels like probably the most predictable game of the entire week. The Chargers offense will play great for most of the game, and give them a legitimate chance to win. The Bills offense will play well enough to keep the game close throughout the whole game, but never look great. In the fourth quarter, one way or another, the Chargers will collapse and find a way to lose a close game to a Bills team that probably didn’t deserve the win. All in all, there should be a good amount of offense in this game.
Targets: Justin Herbert, Kalen Ballage (unless Austin Ekeler returns), Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley
Fades: Devin Singletary
Must-Owns: Keenan Allen
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: At this point, I don’t know how we can expect anything other than an offensive-heavy, competitive game. Both the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Chargers move the ball well, and neither commits a large amount of turnovers — so, even if targeting a lower-scoring game, I’m not sure a defense works here. Stefon Diggs and Keenan Allen remain consistent and nearly unstoppable producers, so I’m starting there and building outward as I see fit.
Targets: Justin Herbert, Kalen Ballage (or Austin Ekeler if he plays), Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, Stefon Diggs, and Cole Beasley
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
New York Giants at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As crazy as it sounds, the Giants are potentially going to find themselves in first place after this game if they are able to manage a victory. That seems likely given the absolute deflation the Bengals are going to be feeling in the immediate aftermath of the Joe Burrow injury. Burrow has had his ups and downs throughout this season, but he is clearly better than Ryan Finley, and with Burrow out long term, potentially including some of next season, it is hard to see how this Bengals team brings forth a great effort this week.
Targets: Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton and Giants defense
Fades: Bengals offense
Must-Owns: Wayne Gallman
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The obvious starting point for the game between the New York Giants and Cincinnati Bengals is New York’s defense. It’s not a ‘lock,’ per se, but it has an outstanding matchup against quarterback Brandon Allen in his first start since the injury to Joe Burrow. Otherwise, we should expect a rather methodical, risk-averse offensive gameplan from the Giants, where quarterback Daniel Jones is likely to use his legs more often than his arm — comparatively speaking.
Targets: Wayne Gallman, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, and New York’s Defense
Fades: Cincinnati Bengals
Must-Owns: None
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game is undeniably one of the most important matchups of the week, and my money has to be on the Titans. These two teams met just two weeks ago for a Thursday night game in which the Colts totally dominated. The interesting component here is that both teams are going off major victories, against strong opponents, in overtime. To me, that points towards this game being kind of a let down from a general performance stance, and if these teams aren’t at their best, I like the odds of Derrick Henry making something happen over anybody else in this game.
Targets: Derrick Henry and Titans defense
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It was just two short weeks ago when the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans played against each other, and it was basically the tale of two halves. The Titans dominated immediately, slowed down, and then fell apart after halftime. Don’t think that Tennessee’s coaching staff will ignore the fact that the offense was doing well against an excellent Colts defense. Indianapolis also shredded Tennessee with Nyheim Hines and Michael Pittman, Jr., so we’ll have to gauge if the Titans can shut down either or if the Colts lean on them in the rematch. Personally, I’ll be careful and possibly only use one in a tournament.
Targets: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Jr., Trey Burton, Derrick Henry, and A.J. Browns
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None, but A.J. Brown is close
Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Panthers are coming off a 20-0 dominant victory against a four win Lions team, and the Vikings are coming off a loss against a two win Cowboys team. The fact that the Vikings are the favorite in this game is extremely telling, and I am not missing out on that fact this week. The Vikings are going to win, and I think they are going to win handedly. Whether it is Teddy Bridgewater or P.J. Walker, I fully expect that VIkings to control this game from start to finish. With that said, given that game flow, and the positive matchup, a Panthers receiver is definitely a viable option even if the offense isn’t great as a whole
Targets: D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel, Adam Thielen (if cleared to play) and Justin Jefferson (a near must if Thielen is out)
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Dalvin Cook
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As of this writing, it appears as if quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will be back under center for the Carolina Panthers. This doesn’t do much for my expectation of the game, personally, but it probably leads to a more efficient passing game in which there’s an increase of catches that will help in point-per-reception formats. For the Minnesota Vikings, it’s the same story as always. Dalvin Cook is the main target with Adam Thielen’s fantasy status based directly on his injury status.
Targets: Mike Davis, Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore, Adam Thielen (if healthy), and Justin Jefferson
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Dalvin Cook
Arizona Cardinals at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Assuming Kyler Murray’s shoulder injury is nothing to worry about, I am having a hard time seeing how the Cardinals offense is slowed down this week. They have surpassed 400 yards of offense in all but three games this season, and they are coming off their worst showing of the season with ten days to prepare for this game. I talked a lot about the Patriots defense struggling against the pass last week, and after being torched by Deshaun Watson, they now rank dead last in net yards allowed per pass attempt. The game script, and decent matchup, should lead to a fairly productive showing for Cam Newton and the entire Patriots offense once again.
Targets: Pretty much all offensive players
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: James White
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Sunday’s matchup between the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots is one of the more unstable of the group. We have two teams with similar offensive mindsets — they both love to run the ball — but completely opposite approaches — Arizona wants a fast-paced game, while the Patriots want to slowly and methodically march down the field. One of the two competing strategies will obviously win out, and the Cardinals are the team that will be most impacted. If New England can simply slow down Arizona’s frenetic pace, it limits what the Cardinals’ fantasy players can do. Otherwise, the key players from Arizona will continue to get touches at a high rate.
Targets: Kyler Murray, Kenyan Drake, DeAndre Hopkins (although carefully), Damien Harris, and Jakobi Meyers
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Dolphins are apparently intent on making constant detrimental decisions at quarterback, and it is absolutely astounding. With that said, Tua Tagovailoa will start this week, and given the matchup, he will certainly garner people’s attention. I cannot even consider playing him because at any moment if the Dolphins are struggling, the idea of putting Ryan Fitzpatrick in has to cross their mind. This game is largely impossible for me to have any interest in from a fantasy perspective.
Targets: Salvon Ahmed, DeVante Parker, Dolphins defense and Denzel Mims
Fades: Tua Tagovailoa
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: With the New York Jets showing absolutely no intention of winning games, it’s hard to think they will be too successful on offense. We have seen them score at least 27 points in back-to-back outings, but they’ve had no problem giving up at least 30 points in three consecutive games. I don’t see this changing, but the ceiling should be lowered against the Miami Dolphins’ defense. New York has stepped up and competed against division opponents throughout the season, so I wouldn’t be too aggressive with Miami’s players, but the Dolphins’ offense has to be used in some capacity.
Targets: Jamison Crowder and Salvon Ahmed
Fades: All quarterbacks
Must-Owns: DeVante Parker
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It feels wrong and impossible that the Browns are about to be 8-3, but it feels even more impossible to see how they lose this game. The Jaguars are completely devoid of hope basically everywhere except for at running back thanks to the play of James Robinson. The Browns are going to play their ideal game where they run the ball endlessly and let their defense take advantage of a soft matchup.
Targets: Kareem Hunt, Browns defense and James Robinson
Fades: Everyone except the running backs
Must-Owns: Nick Chubb
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I could basically copy-and-paste everything that I wrote about the Giants and Bengals and apply it to the Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars, respectively. That is, we have a game in which the home team is turning to another quarterback and is essentially devoid of both talent and real expectations. The Browns are rarely in the position to bury a team, but their relentless running attack works well in both the game script and the direct matchup.
Targets: James Robinson, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and Cleveland’s defense
Fades: Mostly everyone else on both offenses
Must-Owns: None
New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: After a somewhat shaky start to the season, this Saints’ defense is really hitting its stride as they have allowed a measly 25 points over its past three games. The Denver offense has some talent, but they have been hard to trust all year long, and given the matchup, there is really no reason to expect much from them this week. The Saints should win this game easily because they are simply better at every single aspect of the game. The only real question mark is how the offense will operate this week after Taysom Hill all but destroyed Alvin Kamara’s value last week. Given the game script, the Saints should be able to run the ball plenty throughout the game, but how those carries get divided between Hill, Kamara and Latavius Murray is hard to gauge.
Targets: Taysom Hill and Michael Thomas
Fades: Broncos offense
Must-Owns: Saints defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The fantasy football world was sent into a tailspin as Taysom Hill started at quarterback in last week’s game for the New Orleans Saints and delivered a solid point total — in some formats, for positions other than quarterback. He gets the nod again, and it’s time to decide if he’s worth buying into now at a reasonable price or if the moment of value has passed. Personally, I can’t see using him at his newly-updated salary. The other key takeaway from last week was the sudden decline of running back Alvin Kamara’s production. Ultimately, Kamara’s touches were given to Hill, himself, and it has now resulted in a price decrease and a buying opportunity. I’m in. The Saints’ defense has also started to shut down opponents, but I can justify the use of at least one player from the Denver Broncos in a matchup in which they will have to find ways to generate offense.
Targets: Drew Lock with one pass-catcher (they all contribute, but I wouldn’t do a full stack), and Michael Thomas
Fades: None, but I’m probably not owning Tayson Hill or Latavius Murray anywhere
Must-Owns: Alvin Kamara
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It almost feels unfair to say it because almost the identical situation has already played out earlier this year, but against all odds, the 49ers are probably going to beat the Rams this week. The Rams are coming off a massive victory on a Monday night game against the Buccaneers, and now get to play the deflated 49ers, so this is a prime let down spot. The 49ers on the other hand, are coming off a bye week, and are playing a must win game against a division rival they are chasing in the standings. This game means everything to the 49ers, and we know Kyle Shanahan has a way to make his team significantly overachieve. I don’t have a ton of faith in this group of offensive players for the 49eres against this Rams defense, but I believe their defense is going to play great and allow their offense to do just enough to get by this week.
Targets: Someone on the 49ers, but with so much uncertainty about who will be playing, it is hard to say right now, 49ers defense and Cooper Kupp
Fades: Most offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s amazing what perception and expectations do. I almost never buy into the San Francisco 49ers when Jimmy Garoppolo is healthy largely because the hype and prices are so inflated. Without Garoppolo, the discounts are excellent, and people tend to forget that the 49ers’ offense is built to survive with-or-without Garoppolo. I may not use Nick Mullens directly — although I might — but I have no problem leaning on some skill position players from San Francisco. The Los Angeles Rams continue to quietly march along as one of the best teams in the league, and their offense will be fine on Sunday. The problem is that the Rams are now the team that will cost too much to target, and there’s a good chance they don’t meet their high bar.
Targets: Robert Woods, Brandon Aiyuk, and whichever 49ers’ running back is starting and highest on the depth chart
Fades: None, but I would be careful targeting the Rams too heavily
Must-Owns: None
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Once again the Buccaneers, predictably, struggled in a Primetime game, but this is a new week. Looking at this week, they are playing an important game, not in Primetime, and looking to rebound from one of their worst games of the season. All of that points to the near certainty that their offense comes out and has a great game. I’m not sure if the Buccaneers will have enough to beat this Chiefs team, but they are going to make it interesting. The only hard part is trying to decide which Buccaneers players are worth owning, because they have an endless arsenal of skill position players that can all have an impact.
Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and the entire Buccaneers offense.
Fades: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If nothing else, we have to take seriously the struggles that we’ve seen from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Primetime. Specifically, from the offensive side of the ball, where the Buccaneers have scored an average of 17.8 points-per-game and no more than 25 points in their four night contests. That’s compared to scoring no fewer than 28 points and an average of 41.5 points-per-game in the other six. Seriously, it’s that extreme. The obvious question we need to ask next is, “Will Tampa Bay play like it’s a night game or will it deliver one of its high-end Sunday afternoon performances?” The Kansas City Chiefs’ defense has slipped in recent weeks, and the team just allowed 31 points to each of its last two opponents. There is a path to a big offensive day for the Buccaneers. On the other side of the matchup, we have the unstoppable force of the Chiefs’ offense — which now ranks second in yards-per-game — and the immovable object of Tampa Bay’s defense — sixth-best in yards. We have seen the Buccaneers’ defense stumble against some of the league’s better offenses, so the Chiefs, as usual, are in-play.
Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, and Rob Gronkowski
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: No matter how you look at it, the Chicago Bears offense is not good. They were not good with Mitchell Trubisky, and they have gotten worse with Nick Foles. The fact that both quarterbacks are dealing with injuries, and the Bears are undecided on who the starter is is just another strike against them. I don’t see how the offense is able to do anywhere near enough to hold up against this Packers team. The Packers offense has a tough test against a solid Bears defense, but they have the talent to make enough plays to win this game fairly easily.
Targets: David Montgomery, Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones and Davante Adams
Fades: The rest of the Bears offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The current reports suggest that we might see Mitchell Trubisky under center for the Chicago Bears, but I’m not sure if this has any real impact on the Bears’ offense from a fantasy standpoint. If anything, Trubisky slides in as a better play over Nick Foles because Trubisky is more likely to find the endzone with his legs. Otherwise, it doesn’t change much from my standpoint. The real targets obviously come from the Green Bay Packers, unless you want a ‘contrarian’ lineup in which you would own Chicago’s defense and limit your exposure to Green Bay’s offense.
Targets: Either defense based on which team you expect to win, Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, Mitchell Trubisky (if he starts), Allen Robinson, and Anthony Miller
Fades: None in particular, but I wouldn’t want too much exposure to Chicago’s offense unless you’re picking the outright ‘upset’
Must-Owns: None
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Carson Wentz has been nothing short of bad this season, but all indications are that his job is safe, and if there were ever a game to right the ship offensively, it is a game against the Seahawks. The Seahawks defense is allowing over 350 passing yards per game, and I simply cannot play a quarterback and his offense against a defense that is that terrible. It also helps that on the other side the Seahawks offense basically always puts up points because Russell Wilson is nearly impossible to shut down. The Seahawks have only played in two games that have had less than 50 total points, so I can’t expect anything other than a high scoring game.
Targets: Russell Wilson, Chris Carson, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Miles Sanders, Travis Fulgham, Jalen Reagor and Dallas Goedert
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Carson Wentz
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Monday Night Football has the potential for fireworks. We’re about to see two teams heading in completely opposite directions fight for their respective divisions in which the matchup actually favors the underdog. That’s right, the Philadelphia Eagles have the edge over the Seattle Seahawks. That doesn’t necessarily mean they win the game, nor does it even mean they will compete. The key is simply that the Eagles have a path to offense by playing against a horrifically bad Seahawks defense, and Philadelphia does have a good enough defense to potentially limit Seattle’s incredible offense. I won’t worry too much about the latter — I would still use some players from the Seahawks in a lineup — but the former is where I want to focus. That is, everyone from Philadelphia is in-play against Seattle’s defense.
Targets: Honestly, everyone — Richard Rodgers and David Moore are two cheap options, if necessary
Fades: Both defenses unless you are going completely contrarian
Must-Owns: Carson Wentz