We lose a few games from the main slate to Saturday’s schedule, but we still have 13 matchups ahead of us between Sunday and Monday. The good news is that we have found plenty with a game flow that is primed to deliver for our fantasy lineups.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 15 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As much as many people (myself included) like to target Falcons games on a weekly basis, this game doesn’t feel like the one to be excited about. The Falcons offense hasn’t been nearly as good as we expect it to be having scored 17 or fewer points in three of their last four games. In a matchup against a tough Buccaneers defense, I don’t have high expectations for this Falcons offense to turn things around. The Bucs offense was good last week, although not nearly as good as I had hoped for. Overall, the Bucs just have not been explosive enough to warrant a ton of attention, and even when they do play well, the ball is usually spread around so much that it is nearly impossible to rely on any one player. The only real target will come in the shape of a rested Leonard Fournette if Ronald Jones II is inactive.
Targets: Leonard Fournette and Buccaneers defense
Fades: Falcons offense
Must-Owns: None (but Fournette is close at his price if Jones is out)
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I always try to find the path of least resistance in a game, but it looks like we might have two forces clashing on Sunday. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a boatload of skill position players who are always worth considering for a fantasy lineup, but the Falcons have actually played well defensively. Their numbers are still negatively impacted by a terrible start to the season in which the team allowed at least 30 points in four consecutive weeks, but Atlanta has allowed no more than 24 points since its Week 10 bye and fewer than 30 points in every game since Week 4. The flip-side of this is Tampa Bay’s uncanny ability to thrive in most standard afternoon games on Sundays. The Buccaneers are averaging 35.3 points-per-game in the early window and 33.2 points-per-game in all non-Primetime contests. The opposite side of the matchup is much more straightforward, where Tampa Bay’s defense remains stout and Atlanta’s offense hasn’t topped 340 yards since Week 9.
Targets: Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, Calvin Ridley, and Hayden Hurst
Fades: Todd Gurley
Must-Owns: None
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game features one of my most confident picks of the week. The 49ers are a strong run team with a strong defense, and those are two things that this Cowboys team is simply not capable of handling. The Cowboys’ defense is historically bad against the run, and their offense has shown very little over the past two months to give me much confidence against this 49ers defense. Do not let the results of last week’s games persuade you into thinking otherwise, the 49ers should cruise this week.
Targets: Raheem Mostert and 49ers defense
Fades: Cowboys offense
Must-Owns: Jeff Wilson Jr.
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: For the majority of the season, I have had no problem mercilessly attaching the Dallas Cowboys’ pitiful defense. That slowed down in the middle portion of the year where it finally played to a level that wasn’t completely embarrassing. Now that we have 13 games to use a source for our expectations, it’s not difficult to connect the dots and see that the Cowboys can still limit pathetic offenses but struggle against everyone else. The San Francisco 49ers may not be the most powerful offense, but they do have a clear desire to run the football wherever possible. That should work well against Dallas, and it makes the 49ers’ run game the clear target in the matchup — even though it’s always frustrating how many players from San Francisco touch the ball in a given game.
Targets: Nick Mullens, Jeff Wilson, Jr., Raheem Mostert, Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers Defense, and Dalton Schultz
Fades: The rest of Dallas’ offense
Must-Owns: None
Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Derrick Henry continued his domination of the league last week, and given the matchup this week, and likely game flow, it is hard to see him not having another huge game this week. Normally, I am willing to roll the dice on Matthew Stafford and the Lions keeping things interesting, but given his significant rib injury, he will either be playing through a very painful injury, or he will be handing the reins over to Chase Daniel. Neither of those situations are one I’m comfortable betting on, so I don’t see how I can suggest anything other than a comfortable Titans win in which Derrick Henry is the star once again.
Targets: D’Andre Swift, A.J. Brown and Titans defense
Fades: The rest of the Lions offense
Must-Owns: Derrick Henry
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We have a ‘good-news-bad-news’ situation with the Detroit Lions and Tennessee Titans. The bad news? We don’t know if quarterback Matthew Stafford will be healthy enough to play — and perform — for the Detroit Lions, and the offense’s success largely hinges on his availability. The good news? We do know that Titans running back Derrick Henry has an ideal matchup against a Lions defense that has allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns and fourth-most rushing yards in the league.
Targets: Ryan Tannehill, A.J. Brown, D’Andre Swift, and Danny Amendola
Fades: Most of Detroit’s offense
Must-Owns: Derrick Henry
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Texans are fresh off one of the worst games we’ve seen from them in a very long time, and just two weeks removed from nearly upsetting this very same Colts team, I think they bounce back this week and exact their revenge. We saw two weeks ago that the Texans offense was able to move the ball against this Colts defense, and Deshaun Watson has not had consecutive games with fewer than 20 fantasy points since Weeks 2 and 3. The Colts offense may be infuriating to us as fantasy players, but we have to admit that they have been very productive of late. They have totaled at least 26 points in each of their last five games and have easily surpassed 300 total yards in each of those while exceeding 400 yards in three of those five games. They have another very soft matchup ahead of them, so there is no reason to think they won’t continue to roll on offense.
Targets: Brandin Cooks (if active), Keke Coutee, Jordan Akins, Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines and T.Y. Hilton
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Deshaun Watson
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It looks like the gradual decrease of offensive talent over the weeks for the Houston Texans has finally caught up to the team. The matchup against a solid Indianapolis Colts defense doesn’t help, either. Still, we’ve seen Houston play well in division games, and it almost completed the ‘upset’ over the Colts just two weeks ago. I’d have no problem or hesitation turning to the Texans to fill a spot in my roster, as they put up nearly 400 yards of offense in their last meeting with Indianapolis. The Colts’ offense is, as usual, too spread out for us to comfortably use anyone, but both running backs continue to get enough volume to produce on a regular basis.
Targets: Both offenses
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Deshaun Watson and possibly Nyheim Hines
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Patriots season may be all but lost at this point, but they reminded us two weeks ago that Bill Belichick does not lose to rookie quarterbacks. The Patriots are technically playing under a small amount of hope of making the playoffs, but more than anything, this game has spoiler written all over it. A win this week would go a long way towards knocking the Dolphins out of a potential playoff spot, and while that’s an unfamiliar position for Belichick and the Patriots, I get the feeling Belichick would love to find another way to stick it to a divisional opponent. I am expecting very little offense in this game as the Dolphins defense should be able to handle Cam Newton and the Patriots, and the Dolphins offense, which I’ve found to be largely unimpressive under Tua Tagovailoa so far, is unlikely to get much going this week.
Targets: Damien Harris (or Sony Michel if Harris is out), Patriots defense and Dolphins defense
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While it is easily one of the more fascinating football games of the weekend, I’m not sure we can derive much fantasy value from the matchup between the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots. New England is famous for doing two things defensively: taking away an opponent’s best player and shutting down rookie quarterbacks. Doesn’t that make the entire Dolphins’ offense unplayable? It does for me. On the other side of the matchup, we have a scuffling Patriots’ offense that seemingly can only get the ball into the endzone if quarterback Cam Newton is running with it inside the five-yard line. I’m sure there will be some hidden gems in this game, but it’s hard to look anywhere besides both defenses.
Targets: Both defenses and Damien Harris (if healthy)
Fades: Most other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is both the most intriguing and worst game of the entire week. You have division rivals, playing a late season game in which both teams are in complete desperation mode as they fight for a playoff spot. We have seen extreme highs from both of these teams, and we have seen extreme lows from both of these teams, so there is really no scenario that is out of the question for this matchup. The Bears defense is coming off their best game of the season, but the two games before that saw them allow a total of 75 points to the other two teams in the division. The Vikings defense has been an issue all season long, and the Bears offense could be in position to take advantage after one of their most impressive games of the season last week. The last time these teams met, a total of 32 points were scored, but everything about this game is making me feel like this game is going to be a high-scoring battle which is absolutely crazy considering my usual feelings towards these teams.
Targets: Pretty much any regular offensive players for either team
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None yet, but this game will be one I target heavily
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: One of the reasons we write this column is to identify where a matchup is potentially going to steer people in the wrong direction. Such is the case with the Minnesota Vikings against the Chicago Bears. Chicago’s defense always carries the reputation of being one of the better squads in the league, but it only ranks 13th in yards allowed. It is also better against the run than the pass, which plays well with another misconception. That is, that the Vikings exclusively try to run the football. Minnesota certainly wants to lean on its rushing attack — it has the eighth-most carries and fourth-fewest pass attempts — but the reality is that the Vikings thrive when throwing the ball. Despite the low volume, Minnesota ranks eighth in the league in touchdown receptions. Don’t be afraid to lean on the Vikings’ aerial attack on Sunday.
Targets: All the usual suspects from the Vikings and David Montgomery
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None, but I will definitely be owning someone from this game
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: You have to admire what this Washington team has been able to do, and how Alex Smith has been able to aid in the massive turn around they’ve experienced. With that said, I can’t count on them to continue to beat teams that are simply better than they are, and with an injured Alex Smith (he may or may not play still), I can’t count on them whatsoever with Dwayne Haskins Jr. potentially back under center. The Seahawks offense seemed to reclaim some of their confidence last week, and even though scoring a lot against the Jets doesn’t mean much, it could have been the positive showing that got them back on track. I don’t love any offense against this Washington defense, but they should have enough talent and opportunity this week to make some plays.
Targets: Russell Wilson, Chris Carson, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, J.D. McKissic and Terry McLaurin
Fades: Alex Smith/Dwayne Haskins Jr.
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I was admittedly low on the Seattle Seahawks’ offense entering last week, and it was clearly a mistake. Now, against a far better defense in the Washington Football Team — actually, defense is its calling care — I’m buying into Seattle. Carefully. I don’t want to disrespect a Washington squad that has surged to the top of the defensive standings — and NFC East in the process — so I won’t fill my lineup with players from Seattle. I simply won’t avoid them altogether. I probably have to stay away from Washington’s offense, as the Seahawks’ defense is no longer the sieve that we saw in the beginning of the year. They become completely off-limits if Dwayne Haskins starts as the team’s quarterback.
Targets: Russell Wilson, Chris Carson, Carlos Hyde (who might be a nice lesser expensive and, thus, less risky option), D.K. Metcalf, J.D. McKissic, Terry McLaurin, and Seattle’s defense
Fades: Everyone else on Washington’s offense
Must-Owns: None
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m hesitant to say the Ravens are back to the team we saw all of last year, but their last two games have at least reminded us how dominant they can be running the ball as they have accumulated 425 rushing yards in those two games. In a matchup with one of the very worst teams in the league, their offense should be able to run all game long, so it could very easily be another 200 yard rushing effort from the Ravens. The Jaguars are turning back to Gardner Minshew II this week, and it seems funny it took this long considering the fact that he is clearly a vastly superior quarterback than anyone else they’ve had this season (not that that is saying all that much). In a game that means nothing to the team, but potentially a lot to Minshew II and his future, I like his odds to take his positive game flow and have a productive game.
Targets: Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Gardner Minshew II, James Robinson, DJ Chark Jr. and Keelan Cole Sr.
Fades: Ravens pass catchers
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Say what you will about the Jacksonville Jaguars and their pathetic one-win season, but they actually carry extreme value on Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens. It’s not in the sense that they will actually win the game, but they get a large offensive boost with the return of quarterback Gardner Minshew on Sunday. He is far-from-great, but he has shown that he can use increased volume well and deliver fantasy performances that make him worth a look. Otherwise, it’s the multi-faceted run game of the Ravens that will march all over a weak Jaguars defense, where we might get an even more successful Lamar Jackson as the Ravens’ quarterback tries to piggyback last week’s outstanding rushing attack into another.
Targets: Gardner Minshew, James Robinson, Keelan Cole, Sr., Laviska Shenault, Jr., Lamar Jackson, and J.K. Dobbins
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
New York Jets at Los Angeles Rams
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The New York Jets managed to score just three points last week against the Seahawks defense. I don’t like to be dramatic, but that seems like basically the maximum points they can score this week against an infinitely tougher Rams defense. The entire Rams offense should be in play, but you have to figure they will look to continue leaning on the running game in a game which they should be controlling throughout. Cam Akers has fully emerged as the guy to own in the Rams backfield, but there could be enough volume for this week to keep Darrell Henderson Jr. viable for just one more game.
Targets: Darrell Henderson Jr., Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods
Fades: Jets offense
Must-Owns: Cam Akers and Rams defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Yikes. I always look for the avenue through which my first read on a team or game could be wrong, but it’s hard to find a way that the New York Jets move the ball against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. As always, I never consider anything ‘impossible’ in the world of sports, but we saw that New York couldn’t even use a large deficit to rack up volume statistics when it scored just three points against the Seahawks, last week. Unless looking strictly for a point-per-reception target in someone like Jamison Crowder, no one on the Jets is playable. This also makes the Rams’ defense the obvious choice from this matchup, and it may be worth paying a premium. The Rams will obviously have some offensive talent perform, but we are faced with the age-old problem of a widespread distribution of offensive touches. Still, the running game should thrive late in the matchup, where we could even target one of the less expensive options.
Targets: The Los Angeles Rams
Fades: The New York Jets
Must-Owns: Rams defense and one running back from the Rams
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The presence of Jalen Hurts clearly sparked the Eagles offense last week, but let’s also acknowledge the fact that he threw 30 passes for a total of just 167 yards. He showed he has potential to be a dynamic presence, much like this week’s opponent Kyler Murray, but if those kinds of struggles as a passer continue, the fantasy appeal of the rest of this Eagles offense is very limited. This game is a near must win for both of these teams, and as we see every year, teams in big games look to their playmakers to win games, and that should mean the ball is not leaving either quarterbacks hands very often. I’m expecting a lot of running in this game from both teams especially considering it is the weaker part of both defenses.
Targets: Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, Kyler Murray, Kenyan Drake and DeAndre Hopkins
Fades: All other pass catchers
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The obvious storyline in last week’s game is the obvious storyline in this week’s games. That is, the Philadelphia Eagles have turned to quarterback Jalen Hurts. As I wrote in multiple places, last week, Hurts presence on the field is easily enough to change the nature of the Eagles’ offense, but he took it a step further by actually delivering an outright ‘upset’ win. The immediate reaction will be that Philadelphia over-performed and will now go back into a shell. Not so fast. There’s another opportunity here with the Eagles’ offense, and I’d like some exposure to it. I also wrote about how much I was buying into Arizona Cardinals and, while their touchdown totals were a slight disappointment, their overall performance was not. We can see how the Cardinals’ potential is sometimes capped, so I would proceed with some caution when looking at Arizona’s players against an Eagles defense that ranks eighth in net-yards-per-pass-attempt and 12th in yards-per-rush.
Targets: Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, Jalen Reager, Dallas Goedert, Kyler Murray, and Kenyan Drake
Fades: None, but I don’t want too much exposure to this game
Must-Owns: None
Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The only big question for this game is will Drew Brees play, and if so, how effective will he be? As we continue to see each and every week, the Chiefs’ offense is all but unstoppable. Even last week, playing a good Dolphins defense that created multiple turnovers, the Chiefs are simply too dynamic to stop throughout a whole game. So again, my only question is can the Saints possibly keep up with the Chiefs, and I’m leaning towards yes (at least for the sake of being fantasy viable, not necessarily winning the game). Brees will not play unless he is truly healthy, and if he is healthy, this passing game should be able to make plays against this Chiefs defense. The biggest boost will go to Alvin Kamara who will see his passing game usage skyrocket again with Brees under center.
Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Drew Brees, Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook
Fades: Latavius Murray
Must-Owns: Alvin Kamara
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The football-watching world may be robbed of a potentially historic matchup between quarterbacks Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes, and it also throws off the balance of the game. The New Orleans Saints will likely now lean on their rushing attack with Brees potentially playing through an injury and their defense — which has been outstanding and now ranks second in the league in yards allowed. It might be enough, but it’s also difficult to expect Mahomes to be limited in a dome and coming off a three-interception performance.
Targets: All of the usual suspects from Kansas City
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Patrick Mahomes and Alvin Kamara
Cleveland Browns at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Of every game this week, this is one of the ones that I have the least confidence in. The Browns offense has three straight games of over 450 yards of offense, but that doesn’t feel like a trend that is likely to continue, and the Giants defense has quietly been a top ten defense all season long. On the other side of the field, the Giants offense has been largely terrible all season, and they are coming off of their worst game of the season in which they totaled just 159 of offense. Nothing about either team’s recent performance should indicate a Giants victory, yet that is kind of what I see happening here. No matter what the outcome, I’m not expecting this game to see a ton of offense, but rather two teams that look to establish the run throughout and play good defense.
Targets: Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Wayne Gallman Jr. and Darius Slayton
Fades: Baker Mayfield and Daniel Jones
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I keep going back to the same thought regarding the New York Giants: they aren’t particularly good. A decent stretch in which the defense delivered has helped the record plummet further, but we are still looking at a team three games under .500 with three games to go in the season. At best, they’d be 8-8. Regardless, the Giants will have to stop the running back duo from the Cleveland Browns if New York has any hope of pulling off the outright ‘upset.’ It’s definitely possible, as the Giants are better against the run than the pass — and, again, the defense has been playing well. The problem is that this is only one piece of the ‘upset’ equation. The other is that New York’s offense needs to do something. Cleveland’s defense isn’t terrorizing — it isn’t even good — but the Giants’ offense is so bad that it needs an uncharacteristic performance in order to win. There’s your decision point, where you can target New York’s offense if expecting a victory or the Browns’ defense if not.
Targets: Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, and Cleveland’s defense
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Nick Chubb
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The final game of the week is set to be possibly the least exciting game of the week. The Bengals offense has been a complete and total mess without Joe Burrow, and they are fresh off a seven point, three turnover game against the Cowboys. If that was what they were capable of against possibly the worst defense in the league, I’m nervous to think about what happens against this Steelers defense. The Steelers offense has been struggling lately, but between the likely turnovers their defense creates, and the soft matchup, the offense should be able to do more than enough to aid the Steelers in a much needed easy victory.
Targets: Steelers offense
Fades: Bengals offense
Must-Owns: Steelers defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m going to start this writeup completely backwards and proclaim that I want to own the Cincinnati Bengals’ defense and special teams on Monday night. Why? Because it’s probably the only manner in which the team competes and, if it does, it’s a great opportunity to be ‘contrarian.’ The Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense is outstanding, and it has already shut down Cincinnati, this season. It’s likely that it happens again. But, if the Bengals were to avoid embarrassment, they would need something else that can get around this metaphorical brick wall. Since we’d get points for either a special teams or defensive touchdown, I’m making sure that’s part of my Showdown lineup. Otherwise, it’s all of Pittsburgh’s pass catchers. I’d love to think the Steelers might try to actually get a running game going against a terrible rush defense in the Bengals, but Pittsburgh refuses to run, even in big wins.
Targets: Whichever Bengals running back is healthy and starting, Tyler Boyd, Eric Ebron, and Diontae Johnson
Fades: James Conner
Must-Owns: Bengals defense