Once again, a handful of games played before Sunday leaves us with a slightly smaller main slate, but it’s no different than what we had done in the middle of the year with a few teams on their byes. Now, with only two weeks left in the regular season, we have to gauge both how a team has been playing and what is likely for the closeout of the season.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 16 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: At first glance, this game is easy to get excited about, but the Atlanta Falcons haven’t been the guaranteed high-scoring offense we’re used to. Last week’s game against the Buccaneers was their first game to go over 50 points since Week 9. That game also saw them blow yet another big lead, and nearing the end of the season, with nothing left to play for, my expectations for the Falcons are very low. They get even lower when I consider the fact that the Chiefs will secure the first round bye in the playoffs with a win this week. The Chiefs are a much better team with much more to play for, and I expect that to show this week.
Targets: Calvin Ridley, Patrick Mahomes, Le’Veon Bell, Tyreek Hill (assuming he is indeed active) and Travis Kelce
Fades: The rest of the Falcons offense
Must-Owns: None (but Bell seems close to a must play with Clyde Edwards-Helaire out)
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Simply put, I will almost never expect the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense to go cold, and we have now seem them play well against the Buccaneers and Saints — two of the best defenses in the league. The Atlanta Falcons are actually quietly improving in the defensive department, so the most I will do is avoid a tremendous amount of exposure to Kansas City’s offense, just to avoid a disaster in case Atlanta does slow down the Chiefs. The other side of the matchup is probably more intriguing, as the Falcons will undoubtedly have to throw the ball to keep pace with the Chiefs.
Targets: Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill (if healthy), and Travis Kelce
Fades: Both teams’ running game
Must-Owns: None, but Calvin Ridley is close
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The New York Jets pulled off possibly the most shocking victory I can remember, but I am not going to expect them to make that miracle — or misfortune depending on how you look at it — happen again. The Browns have been playing great football lately, and the Jets cannot possibly compete after last week’s surprise win. Look for the Browns to take a lead and run the ball all game long.
Targets: Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry and Browns defense
Fades: The Jets
Must-Owns: Nick Chubb
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: How can we ask anything of the New York Jets at this point? Indeed, they won a game, but we can’t act like they did anything particularly well, nor can we expect it to continue. The Cleveland Browns are actually within striking distance of the AFC North for the first time in ages, and they have a running game that should march all over the Jets’ defense. Between game flow and gameplan, I don’t know if the Browns will reach double-digit pass attempts on the day. The opposite should be true for the Jets’ offense, as it will almost certainly be trailing at one point.
Targets: Browns’ running backs
Fades: Jets’ offense
Must-Owns: None, but Nick Chubb is close
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Pittsburgh Steelers are beginning to look like a major liability after starting the season 11-0. They have lost three games in a row now, two of which were to teams with losing records, and their offense has failed to score 20 points in four straight games now. The offensive woes are especially concerning, and with their general inability to run the ball, I don’t see how they can be corrected easily. I especially don’t love their odds to turn it around against a Colts defense that is still seventh in total yards allowed despite a few poor games recently. With all of that said, I still think the Steelers find a way to win this game, and if that is going to be the case, it is going to have to be their defense that leads the way. This game doesn’t seem particularly appealing to me from a fantasy perspective.
Targets: Nyheim Hines and Diontae Johnson
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: Steelers defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There might not be a team that looked worse on offense in Week 15 than the Pittsburgh Steelers — at least, not a team with any expectations. They have an impossibly difficult task against an Indianapolis Colts defense that has been quite good throughout the year. Still, there is some sneaky value, as Pittsburgh clearly has some playmakers and will need to lean on them again if it has any chance of stopping the sudden losing streak. That, or the defense leads the way, in which case the Colts’ offense becomes a risky target.
Targets: Steelers’ wide receivers, Nyheim Hines, and T.Y. Hilton
Fades: Steelers’ running backs
Must-Owns: None, but I do want to own at least one pass-catcher from Pittsburgh if I can
Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There may be no team in the league that is happier right now than the Jacksonville Jaguars this week as the Jets have essentially handed them Trevor Lawrence on a silver platter. Knowing that, I am fairly certain the organization has no interest in winning a game, and I expect that to show. The Bears have been playing well lately with Mitchell Trubisky uner center, and with them still in the running for a playoff spot, I don’t see them overlooking this free victory.
Targets: Bears defense
Fades: The Jaguars offense and most of the Bears passing game — likely poor game script
Must-Owns: David Montgomery
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Jets winning their first game of the year means that the Jacksonville Jaguars are in the driver’s seat for the first pick in next year’s Draft. For that reason, it’s hard to imagine Jacksonville handing the pick back to New York by suddenly exploding for a win. That theory is further supported by the news that running back James Robinson might not play. This would severely hinder the upside of the Jaguars’ already limited offense. I would still consider quarterback Mike Glennon in a lineup solely because of how often the Jaguars will need to throw, but I can’t dive deeper than that — unless Robinson does play. The Chicago Bears’ offense has been rolling, and it’s almost impossible that the Jaguars’ pathetic defense becomes the one to stop it. I still can’t fully stack Chicago’s offense in a lineup with too much confidence, but it’s clear that it has found a path to scoring and won’t suddenly go cold against Jacksonville.
Targets: Jaguars wide receivers and James Robinson (if healthy)
Fades: None in particular, but I don’t want too much exposure to either offense
Must-Owns: David Montgomery
New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I said it last week, and I will say it again, the Giants have fought admirably this season, but they don’t stand much of a chance this week. Their offense has fallen apart again with just 13 total points in their last two games, and no game over 20 points since Week 10. As if that wasn’t all bad enough, they have to play a Ravens team that is starting to resemble the dominant team we saw most of last season. On top of that, the Ravens are also still on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs, so there will be no oversight in this game as every win is crucial for them. Look for the Ravens to continue establishing their run game which is averaging well over 200 yards per game in their last three games.
Targets: Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Ravens defense
Fades: Giants offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s quite likely that we are seeing the Baltimore Ravens hitting their stride at the perfect time, and the New York Giants might be in the way. If that happens, then Baltimore’s running game will continue to have success as it marches to another victory. We do know that the Giants’ defense is its strength, so tread lightly before using everyone from Baltimore in a lineup. Still, the matchup is lopsided and heavily pointed in the direction that the Ravens will be running throughout the contest.
Targets: Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins, Mark Andrews, and Giants pass-catchers
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If it weren’t for the Jets victory last week, the Bengals upsetting the Steelers would have been the biggest shock of the week. That game had to have felt like the Super Bowl for a Bengals team that has nothing left to play for other than pride against a division rival that was showing them no respect. You give me a meaningless game that features Deshaun Watson against Ryan Finley, and I’ll take Watson without batting an eye. I think Watson and the Texans control this game throughout with the Bengals putting up some points against an extremely weak Texans defense.
Targets: Giovani Bernard, Tee Higgins, David Johnson, Brandin Cooks and Keke Coutee
Fades: Ryan Finley
Must-Owns: Deshaun Watson
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We may have seen the Cincinnati Bengals’ defense hold strong against Pittsburgh, but it had two factors going for it. The first is that it was a division game in which familiarity was everywhere. The second is simply in the struggles that we have seen from the Steelers’ offense. That isn’t the case with the Houston Texans, and I am eagerly using players from Houston in my lineups. I won’t shy away from the Bengals’ offense totally, but I will mainly target the pass-catchers as the game flow likely leads to Cincinnati trailing and, thus, throwing.
Targets: Houston’s offense, Giovani Bernard, and Samaje Perine
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None, but I will definitely have someone from Houston in most of my lineups
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: One week after an inexplicably good game from the Broncos, they reverted back to their usual sub-par play in which they lost to the Bills by 29 points. I don’t expect that type of blowout here, but I am also not counting on good play from this disjointed Broncos team at this point of yet another lost season. I am expecting some sort of improvement from the Broncos defense which is far better than the 48 points they allowed last week. My expectations for the Chargers offense is further lowered by the absences of Hunter Henry and potential absence of Keenan Allen.
Targets: Noah Fant and Austin Ekeler
Fades: Drew Lock and all wide receivers
Must-Owns: Melvin Gordon III
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers have been wildly inconsistent throughout the season, and the divisional matchup between the two makes it likely that we see a close, tough game. That leads me to expect less offense as neither team pulls away and both exchange jabs, and not knockout punches. I’m strictly leaning defense here.
Targets: Both defenses, Austin Ekeler, and Noah Fant
Fades: Most other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Carolina Panthers at Washington Football Team
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: With absolutely no confidence in either of these teams at the moment, I am leaning towards a Panthers win solely because a Washington loss could leave the door open in the NFC East for every single team heading into Week 17. With neither offense being particularly great, the big thing for me will be which team can hang on to the ball longer and avoid turnovers. Looking at it like that, my money is easily on Teddy Bridgewater over Dwayne Haskins Jr. even with a tough matchup for Bridgewater. No matter what the outcome, it is hard to see how this game could have much fantasy football excitement.
Targets: Mike Davis, Curtis Samuel, Panthers defense and J.D. McKissic
Fades: Dwayne Haskins Jr.
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I know that quarterback Dwayne Haskins eventually put together a solid statline in his most recent start, but it was somewhat circumstantial — as in, he threw the ball a whopping 55 times! Even with that, he tossed two interceptions and only one touchdown. He remains off-limits for me and, if he starts, I won’t own too many players from the Washington Football Team. On the other side of the matchup, Washington’s defense has been the key for the team, and that should continue to be the case against a Carolina Panthers offense that has been inconsistent. The exception? The team’s running backs, as Carolina has committed to letting its players gain volume out of the backfield even in the passing game.
Targets: Mike Davis, Curtis Samuel, and Terry McLaurin
Fades: Most other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As I said when discussing the Washington Football Team game, my feelings here are based on bringing the NFC East completely down to the wire for all four teams. In order to make that happen, the Eagles need to win this game, and that doesn’t seem far-fetched whatsoever. Not long ago, we watched Lamar Jackson and the Ravens run circles all around this Cowboys defense, and while Jalen Hurts is not on Jackson’s level, he provides similar issues. Hurts and Miles Sanders should be able to control this game from start to finish and allow their team to play with a lead. If that is the case, I don’t love the odds of Andy Dalton mounting a comeback against this solid Eagles defense.
Targets: Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, Jalen Reagor, Tony Pollard (if Ezekiel Elliott is out) and Amari Cooper
Fades: Andy Dalton
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There’s no denying that quarterback Jalen Hurts has brought a “spark” to the Philadelphia Eagles’ offense and, even if it’s only a “spark,” it has ignited something in the team that is leading to competitive games. The Eagles have a fantastic matchup against a Dallas Cowboys defense that had been dreadful earlier in the year. The Cowboys have been playing much better as of late, though, so it leads me to lower the ceiling for Philadelphia’s offense a little. Still, it’s hard to ignore the potential from the Eagles. Dallas’ offense has also started to perform, but there is cause for concern against a solid Eagles defense.
Targets: Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, DeSean Jackson, Jalen Reagor, Tony Pollard (if Ezekiel Elliott is out), Amari Cooper, and Dalton Schultz
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It is needless to say, but the Rams are probably extremely embarrassed after last week’s loss to the Jets. With that said, the Rams are who they are, and I have a strange feeling we see as big of a rebound as possible in a statement victory this week. The Seahawks defense has been much better lately, but their last four games have come against the Eagles, Giants, Jets and Football Team, so it’s not like they’ve had great competition. I fully expect to see the vert best version of the Rams we can possibly see. With that, I do think a positive game script will produce good numbers for Russell Wilson because I can never accept that he won’t keep his team in a game.
Targets: Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee, Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett and David Moore
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Jared Goff
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The last time the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks met, I was all over the concept of both teams’ offenses thriving. It didn’t happen. Instead, defense led the way. That’s likely to be the case in the encore, but mainly because Los Angeles’ defense remains one of the best in the league. Seattle’s was terrible, but has had a nice stretch. Granted, the level-of-competition has not been great, but the Rams’ offense has also been underwhelming at times. I can’t imagine either team completely going dark — and I love the idea of Los Angeles’ offense rebounding after a dud against the lowly Jets — so I am sure I will own some players from this matchup. It just won’t be a full game stack.
Targets: Both defenses, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Chris Carson
Fades: None, but I would be careful before loading up on players from this game
Must-Owns: None
Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game is hard to feel great about how it actually plays out, but either way, the likely fantasy impact is negligible. If the Titans come out strong, they can establish the run against this Packers defense and control the game that way. In this scenario, the Packers offense will be forced to throw the ball, and I love their odds to be successful keeping pace in this matchup. If the Packers take a lead, the presence of Derrick Henry allows the Titans to operate an elite play-action passing game which should allow them to keep pace with the Packers. At the end of the day, it is hard to see a path to this game being anything other than a back-and-forth shootout type of game.
Targets: Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Aaron Jones
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I wrote about this in my against-the-spread picks article, but the Tennessee Titans are the perfect team to run all over the Green Bay Packers and never stop. Does that mean it happens? Not necessarily, as the Packers’ run defense is no longer a disaster. The better matchup, however, is Green Bay’s passing game against a Tennessee secondary that has struggled for the majority of the season. The Packers have found a nice pattern of scoring early and then coasting for the rest of the game, but the good news is that, even if this plan fails on Sunday night, they will continue to throw in a positive matchup.
Targets: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, and A.J. Brown
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Just a few weeks ago, we had some reason to believe in the Patriots potentially making a run at the playoffs, but with just 15 points in their last two games — both losses — they have been officially eliminated from playoff contention. With how shocking that is for the Patriots organization, and how unfamiliar they are with being in this position, it is hard to see how they bring anything close to their best this week. I don’t love expecting a team to win back-to-back blowouts, but with how the Bills have been playing, and how little faith I have in the Patriots in this situation, I don’t see how this game can be competitive.
Targets: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Bills defense and Cam Newton
Fades: The rest of the Patriots offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I keep looking back to two key games on the New England Patriots’ schedule whenever I break down Monday night’s tilt with the Buffalo Bills. The first game I use for a comparison is, not surprisingly, the last matchup with the Bills. There, Buffalo scored only 24 points, the fourth-lowest for the team, all year. The other game I target is the Sunday Night Football matchup from Week 10 in which the Patriots held the Ravens to only 17 points — the lowest for Baltimore in a game started by quarterback Lamar Jackson. These two comparisons are an indication that, even with a lower potential to win, the Patriots can still do damage against other teams’ offenses. I won’t be going overboard with Buffalo, although I likely can’t trust too much from New England, either. In a Showdown contest, I will certainly have at least one defense, while a Primetime contest will have limited offensive players.
Targets: Both defenses, Josh Allen, Cole Beasley, and Jakobi Meyers
Fades: Most other offensive players
Must-Owns: None