Every game’s writeup begins with the mentioning of any possible ‘storylines,’ and they are the prominent feature in Week 17. More than ever, we will have to balance the risk versus reward of using players from a team that might rest players. It could be a great way to have under-owned gems, but also an easy path to a low score.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 17 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While it has not been confirmed yet, it seems impossible to imagine the Bills rolling out any of their top players this week with very little on the line for them. The Dolphins on the other hand are playing a near must win game in order to secure a playoff spot, and given those two situations, I have to think the Dolphins take care of business. With that said, I’m not expecting it to come easy because the Dolphins are going back to Tua Tagovailoa after yet another benching. I cannot fathom how the coaching staff, or the rest of the team for that matter, feels Tagovailoa is better for the team at this very moment — obviously, before the news that Ryan Fitzpatrick would be unavailable. As they have for much of the season, I am expecting the Dolphins defense to carry the team to victory this week in an overall ugly game.
Targets: Myles Gaskin and Mike Gesicki
Fades: Bills starters
Must-Owns: Dolphins defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott has not made a public announcment about the status of his players, I’m making it for him. There is no way I’m expecting him to play his starters for the entirety of the game. This puts the Miami Dolphins’ defense in the spotlight to try to earn a playoff berth, and it is probably one of the better plays. Miami has been solid defensively all year, and it would gain a massive in-game boost from playing against quarterback Matt Barkley. The Dolphins’ offense is currently off-limits for me, even though there is surely value somewhere.
Targets: Myles Gaskin and Mike Gesicki
Fades: Bills offense
Must-Owns: Dolphins defense
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Bengals are surprisingly in the middle of a two game “win streak”, but I have been saying for weeks now that the Ravens are a different beast at the moment. Over the past four games, the Ravens are averaging 37 points, 406.75 yards of total offense and 233.25 rushing yards per game. You would be fair to question the level of competition, but it’s not like the Bengals are suddenly a good football team, and their defense is certainly not going to be able to slow down this run game. Being forced into passing situations doesn’t bode well for this Bengals offense against a Ravens defense that ranks fourth in the league in net yards allowed per pass attempt.
Targets: Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Ravens defense
Fades: Bengals offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Cincinnati Bengals piggybacked a surprising win with an impressive one, as the team absolutely exploded offensively. That is much less likely on Sunday, but not because the Bengals are coming off their best performance of the year — they are, and regression is certainly possible — but because they will face a top-ten defense and divisional rival who has shut their offense down in recent years. The Bengals haven’t scored more than 17 points against the Baltimore Ravens since November of 2018, and Baltimore has allowed more than 19 points only once since Thanksgiving. The real matchup of the game will be the Ravens’ top-flight rushing attack against a Bengals defense that is allowing the fourth-most yards-per-carry. It’s the perfect setup for a Baltimore team looking to earn a playoff berth with a win.
Targets: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, and Ravens defense
Fades: Bengals offense
Must-Owns: J.K. Dobbins
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: With the Steelers having nothing tangible to play for this week, they have already announced that Mason Rudolph will be starting this week. Now, that is obviously shifting public opinion toward a Browns win, but let’s not pretend like the Steelers are suddenly going to not care about this game either. These are still division rivals, and if the Steelers can keep the Browns out of the playoffs, they would be thrilled. Nobody would be more thrilled than Mason Rudolph himself as his last game against the Browns ended with his own helmet being smashed onto his head. After what we saw from the Browns last week against the Jets, I have no problem buying into Rudolph’s revenge and saying the Steelers play a major spoiler this week. I don’t think the offense leads the way though, so fantasy interest in this game is very limited.
Targets: Steelers defense
Fades: Steelers offense (not sure which players will play fully) and Browns offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I am so incredibly excited for the matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns solely because of the storyline, so let’s dive right into it. The Steelers are resting their starting quarterback and turning to Mason Rudolph. Rudolph was the player who had his helmet ripped off and then used against him. The opponent who smashed Rudolph over the head with his own helmet? Myles Garrett of the Cleveland Browns. Rudolph has the chance at ultimate revenge, where he can limit the Browns’ chances of making the playoffs. This does give Rudolph some intrigue, and I will probably have him in a tournament lineup, but the reality is that the value from this game comes from the defense. Pittsburgh may have nothing to gain with a win, but the reason the league put division games in Week 17 is precisely because of the rivalry element. The Steelers will be ready for Cleveland’s rushing attack — even if we estimate that the Browns will have more success than they did last time, they only tallied 220 yards of total offense in the first meeting — and it means a lower ceiling for the main targets.
Targets: Steelers defense
Fades: Both offenses
Must-Owns: None
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Lions season reached a new low last week as they suffered a 40-point loss to the Buccaneers and watched Matthew Stafford endure yet another injury, one that may keep him out of this game as well. Whether Stafford is out, or hobbles through another game, I am expecting the Vikings to more or less dominate this matchup. Back in Week 9, the Vikings put up their largest yardage total of the season against this Lions defense, and with the Lions defense continuing to struggle, there is no reason to think the Vikings won’t replicate that performance. I am normally quick to pick players against the Vikings as well, but without Stafford (or at least a somewhat healthy Stafford), I simply cannot have any real expectations for the Lions offense
Targets: Kirk Cousins, Alexander Mattison, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and Vikings defense
Fades: Lions offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I struggled with my pick for the game between the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions, but for a frustrating reason. That is, even though this game has no playoff implications, it has the possibility of being a gem for our purposes. The Vikings and Lions will obviously put together their best reasonable efforts — they won’t be resting players for a playoff run — but it’s difficult to gauge what is “best” at this stage of the year. Right now, there is no word on Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford starting and, if he isn’t, it brings down the potential for all other offensive players. For the Vikings, it’s hard to get around targeting running back Alexander Mattison in Dalvin Cook’s absence, as Detroit is allowing the most rushing touchdowns and fourth-most rushing yards in the league. Overall, I’m watching for news on Stafford where, if he does play, I will likely ‘stack’ this game in one lineup.
Targets: Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Matthew Stafford (obviously, if he plays), D’Andre Swift, and T.J. Hockenson
Fades: Both defenses, including the Vikings’ defense if Stafford doesn’t play — there is too much potential offense in this game
Must-Owns: Alexander Mattison
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: With the Jaguars having clinched the first overall pick, you would think they want to put their best foot forward and end this season on a high note, but their roster decisions seem to be telling a different story. Gardner Minshew II will be the backup to Mike Glennon, and James Robinson is being held out once again. On top of that, D.J. Chark Jr. is also out. Add all of that to the fact that the Colts are playing a must win game, and I don’t see how the Jaguars are ever in this game. The final piece of the puzzle is the extra motivation for the Colts after the Jaguars earned their only win of the entire season against the Colts in Week 1.
Targets: Dare Ogunbowale, Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, T.Y. Hilton and Colts defense
Fades: The rest of the Jaguars offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I was ‘all-in’ on using players like Gardner Minshew and James Robinson as the Jacksonville Jaguars — now with the first pick in next year’s Draft secured — putting forth a better effort than we have seen. Not anymore. Two of the team’s best chances at a big fantasy performance are now missing, and it means we have to dig deep if we want to use anyone from Jacksonville against a solid Indianapolis Colts defense. It’s worth the risk in a tournament, but in limited capacity. Otherwise, it’s players like Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, and T.Y. Hilton from the Colts. I have complained about how spread-out Indianapolis’ offense was for the majority of the season, but the gameplan has honed in on these players, of late.
Targets: Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, T.Y. Hilton, and Dare Ogunbowale,
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There is absolutely no chance that the Chiefs are playing to win this game, so it is unlikely that we see any of their big name players on the field at all. With that said, most people are going to assume the Chargers cruise to victory, but I think we know better than to assume something so obvious with the Chargers. If there is any team in the league I trust to lose a game against a team resting their starters, it is this Chargers team. Even with a short handed team, I’ll still trust Andy Reid way before I trust Anthony Lynn. I don’t think this game is a great fantasy target, but there could definitely be some value to be had in the Chiefs players that are active.
Targets: Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, Demarcus Robinson and MeCole Hardman
Fades: Chiefs top players (if any wind up being active at all)
Must-Owns: Darrell Williams
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While we have seen teams lose when playing their starters against an opponent’s full set of backups, it’s difficult to imagine the talent on the Los Angeles Chargers simply can’t compete with the second-string personnel from the Kansas City Chiefs. Even if the game is close, we’ll have Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert and his impressive rookie numbers at our disposal. There is also some intrigue with the clear-cut backups from Kansas City who will see a boost in playing time, but I am confident that we will find enough salary savings elsewhere to not force our hand into using anyone who may be limited. The exception would be someone like running back Darrell Williams, who can handle an increased workload and would clearly get it if Le’Veon Bell were announced as inactive before the game.
Targets: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, and Darrel Williams
Fades: Most of Kansas City’s offense
Must-Owns: None, but I will probably take a chance with one of the inexpensive backups now thrust into the starting position
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While it may seem wrong to say, looking at what has happened over the past few weeks, the Jets are currently the better team in this matchup. Since their 45-0 victory over the Chargers, the Patriots have lost three straight games and have scored a combined 24 points in those games. While those three games were all against quality opponents, the Jets have managed to win their last two games against the Rams and the Browns, two likely playoff teams. With all of that said, this is a meaningless game between two of the least dynamic offenses in the entire NFL. Outside of being contrarian or hoping for a miracle, there is no reason to pay much attention to this game.
Targets: La’Mical Perine, Sony Michel and either defense
Fades: Both teams’ passing games
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: For the majority of the season, I was treating the New England Patriots’ defense with the respect it deserved from last year. The reality is that it has not been the same in 2020, and I can’t expect that to change at this point. The good news for New England? It has a great matchup against a New York Jets team that ranks at the absolute bottom of almost every category. The Patriots don’t have the same pathetic numbers as the Jets, but their offense has also crumbled to the point where almost no one is usable on a weekly basis. I’m looking for defense from this head-to-head matchup and nothing else.
Targets: Both defenses
Fades: Both offenses
Must-Owns: None
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Against all odds, this Week 17 matchup is a critical game that could result in either one of these teams winning the NFC East. After being seemingly dead, the Cowboys have found a way to win three consecutive games and put themselves back in the mix thanks to at least two consecutive losses by every other team in the division. While it may seem like the Cowboys offense has been great during this win streak (having scored a total of 108 points), the reality is that in two of their three games, the offense accumulated less than 300 yards of total offense which is a major concern. In those three games, their defense allowed 1,244 total yards, but they managed to produce ten turnovers after producing just eleven through their first thirteen games. When you add all of that information to what we know about the Giants – that they are always carried by their defense – and this critical division game has all the makings of a low-scoring offensive struggle.
Targets: Wayne Gallman Jr.
Fades: Both teams’ passing games
Must-Owns: Ezekiel Elliott
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While the matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants is one of the best of the weekend — it might be the best, considering the injuries in some other games — it might be unusable in terms of fantasy players. That is, if the Giants win. New York essentially leans on its defense for 60 minutes, and a victory for the Giants almost certainly takes that approach as well. However, if the Cowboys were to win, then it’s likely from another 30-point outburst, which makes much of Dallas’ offense an intriguing high-upside consideration for Sunday. If making multiple lineups, one will have to include a ‘stack’ of players from Dallas for the pure potential of another big game. Otherwise, I’m staying away entirely.
Targets: Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Wayne Gallman, Jr., Sterling Shepard, and Evan Engram
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Buccaneers are one of the harder teams to gauge this week because of their current situation in the standings. They have clinched a playoff spot, and cannot get the first round bye, so at first glance, they have no real reason to play their starters this week. The flip side to that thinking is that with a win (or a Rams loss) they can clinch the five seed in the NFC which would mean their first playoff game will come against the winner of the NFC East as opposed to the winner of any other division, and that is a big advantage. The Falcons did prove once again last week that their defense is playing much better, and that their games are no longer guaranteed to be high scoring. Between that trend for the Falcons and the uncertainty behind the Buccaneers plans for this game, my ownership in this game will be light all around.
Targets: Calvin Ridley, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin
Fades: Tom Brady and Leonard Fournette (due to playing times concerns for both)
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The absolute most important storyline in any game that involves the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the potential for misleading news is the past history of head coach Bruce Arians. He is known to completely lie to the sports media regarding his intentions and, in the past, has gone as far as admitted afterwards that it wouldn’t make sense for him to tell the truth. Do not trust what he says about playing his starters. He may, but not because he tells us he will. I’m staying away from all Buccaneers players — which is also aided by a tough matchup against an Atlanta Falcons defense that has been playing better over the last month or so. I have no problem using a few offensive talents from Atlanta, but I don’t want too much exposure against a top-seven defense in both yards and points.
Targets: Matt Ryan
Fades: Buccaneers offense
Must-Owns: Calvin Ridley
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Despite the fact that the Saints technically still have a chance to clinch the number one seed in the NFC, it is unlikely that we see Drew Brees log a full game this week. The Saints need to win and get lots of help in order to finish first in the conference, so it is not going to surprise us whatsoever if Sean Payton chooses to give his stars some extra rest. The Saints can absolutely still beat this Panthers team without those two players, which gives Payton all the more reason to get them added rest. No matter what, the Panthers likely keep this game close, and thanks to injuries on both sides, there is some decent value to be had in this game.
Targets: Marquez Callaway, Teddy Bridgewater, Rodney Smith and D.J. Moore
Fades: Drew Brees (due to playing time concerns)
Must-Owns: Curtis Samuel
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As soon as the New Orleans Saints put the finishing touches on their most recent win, I made a note to myself that they are not going to play their starters in Week 17. Technically, they can earn a bye with a win and some help, but the amount of help they need is quite specific, and probably isn’t worth the risk of injury to a quarterback who is over 40 years old and missed time with multiple broken ribs. This doesn’t mean that New Orleans’ offense will struggle on Sunday, but it does mean that key players are probably worth avoiding in our fantasy lineups. Otherwise, I have no issue leaning on players from the Carolina Panthers, as the team has shown plenty of pride throughout 2020 and will likely put together a solid effort.
Targets: Taysom Hill, Ty Montgomery, Curtis Samuel, and D.J. Moore
Fades: Everyone else from New Orleans
Must-Owns: None, but Ty Montgomery might be a ‘must-play’ because of his price and lack of competition for touches
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Titans are coming off by far their worst loss of the season. They were dominated in every facet of the game against the Packers and never stood a chance. The last time we saw them play that poorly was against the Browns, and the following week, they had a major rebound performance. That next game, the Titans beat the Jaguars 31-10 and had 249 team rushing yards. In another optimal rebound spot, the Titans should score at will against this Texans defense that cannot get out of their own way. The Texans are fresh off getting decimated by Brandon Allen and Samaje Perine, so I like the odds of what Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry are capable of doing this week in an important game for the Titans. With Deshaun Watson healthy after a somewhat scary hit late last week, I will have high expectations for this Texans offense once again. Watson will have an ideal game script and a great matchup to close out another strong season despite his lack of help on the entire team.
Targets: Ryan Tannehill, A.J. Brown, Jonnu Smith, David Johnson and Brandin Cooks
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Derrick Henry and Deshaun Watson
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We have a few storylines to attack in the matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans, but most of them run through Derrick Henry — no pun intended. Henry is an absolute ‘must-start’ for me at any price. Period. He is within 223 yards of 2,000 on the season — an unlikely mark to reach until we consider that he has cleared 200 rushing yards a ridiculous three times in his last 16 regular season games. He also has an ideal matchup against a terrible Texans defense that ranks dead last in yards-per-carry. Outside of Henry, we have multiple targets from Tennessee, as we have seen the offense explode in ‘must-win’ games, including last year’s Week 17 game against the Texans. It won’t be a direct repeat, but we can expect offense from the Titans. Houston will respond, but mainly through the volume of quarterback Deshaun Watson. As usual, he is in-play.
Targets: Ryan Tannehill, A.J. Brown, Jonnu Smith, Deshaun Watson, and David Johnson
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Derrick Henry
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is one of a few games this week in which both teams are still fighting for something specific. The Packers need a win — or a Seahawks loss — to clinch first place in the NFC and a first round bye which we know they want to secure. The Bears need a win — or a Cardinals loss — to secure one of the final spots in the playoffs. Since both the Seahawks and the Cardinals play at the exact same time, neither team will know their fate beforehand, and thus, should be playing for their own destiny. With all of that in mind, when I look at what this Packers offense has done all season long, and what the Bears offense has done over the past month, regardless of who wins, I don’t see how this isn’t a high-scoring matchup.
Targets: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, Mitchell Trubisky, David Montgomery and Allen Robinson II
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None as of now, but this game is definitely a must target in general
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The big storyline in the game between the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers is the reemergence of Chicago in the playoff picture. The Bears are in a ‘win-and-get-in’ situation, and it’s hard to think they won’t compete. Perhaps more surprisingly, they would have to “compete” with offense, and that has been the main focal point of the team for the past few weeks. I’m going to be careful to not go overboard with players from Chicago, but the main top targets are in-play. The same exact comment is true for the Packers in both regards. I don’t want to be too aggressive with Green Bay, but I can’t see myself avoiding the battle-tested studs, if money allows.
Targets: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, and Mitchell Trubisky
Fades: None, but I will be careful not to go too heavy with this game
Must-Owns: Allen Robinson
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While there are many teams playing this week without any real consequence, nobody’s playoff elimination is fresher and more painful than the Raiders. After watching them lose an almost guaranteed victory in the final seconds last week, the Raiders have to be looking at this game with no real motivation whatsoever. The Broncos have been playing meaningless games for most of the season, and with a roster full of young players, there is still reason to take this game seriously. Add to that the element of playing in Denver and they have a slight edge to me in this game against the Raiders and their terrible defense.
Targets: Darren Waller, Drew Lock and Noah Fant
Fades: Derek Carr
Must-Owns: Melvin Gordon III
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders are another example of teams with nothing on-the-line, but should still carry value because of the lack of questions — in a week in which we mainly have questions. There’s an added bonus because both teams have played so poorly at various points of the year that it is easy to overlook this matchup for offense. I’m making it a point to take some players from this game, especially from Denver’s side of the matchup. The Raiders have given up the fourth-most points in the league and have only allowed fewer than 21 twice on the year. The first was in miserably bad weather, while the other was against the Broncos as quarterback Drew Lock threw four interceptions. I would look for Denver’s offense to be more productive in the encore.
Targets: Darren Waller, Drew Lock, Melvin Gordon, and Broncos’ pass-catchers
Fades: The rest of Las Vegas’ offense
Must-Owns: None, but I will almost certainly own someone from Denver
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: After being in great position to contend for a division title, both of these teams have endured some struggles in the second half of the season, and find themselves battling for a playoff spot in Week 17. Unfortunately for the Rams, they are going to be forced to start John Wolford thanks to a thumb injury to Jared Goff. To rub some salt in that wound, the Rams will also be without Darrell Henderson Jr., and they likely won’t have Cam Akers of Cooper Kupp available either. The only thing the Rams have going for them is their defense, likely the best in the league, is healthy and ready to attack a potentially hobbled Kyler Murray. When these teams met in Week 13, the Rams allowed a total of just 232 yards of offense. They are going to have to have a similarly strong effort this week as the offense is unlikely to be particularly productive without so many key players.
Targets: Kenyan Drake, DeAndre Hopkins, Robert Woods and Rams defense
Fades: Kyler Murray and John Wolford
Must-Owns: Malcolm Brown (assuming he is the only active running back from the Rams usual trio)
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: A few weeks ago, I was all over the offenses from the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams. Not so much in this encore. Granted, I love the idea of playing Rams quarterback John Wolford in a lineup — and I’m sure I will once — but the reality is that defense should reign supreme from both sides of the game. Los Angeles may be down its starting quarterback, but it is well-coached and enters play with the stingiest defense in the league — in yard allowed. If I use any offensive player from this game, it will be with extreme caution.
Targets: John Wolford, Robert Woods, Kenyan Drake, DeAndre Hopkins, and both defenses
Fades: Kyler Murray
Must-Owns: None
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While I was entirely skeptical of the Seahawks defense still as of last week, another strong showing has me questioning my own doubt. They have now allowed 17 or fewer points in five consecutive games, and no matter who the opponents are, that is worthy of some recognition. I think it is entirely possible they continue that streak this week against the C.J. Beathard led 49ers. With so few players available for the 49ers, there are some good fantasy options even if the offense as a whole isn’t overly productive. The Seahawks offense has been somewhat difficult to trust of late, and given the matchup, and the potential for starters being rested later in the game depending on how the Packers are playing, they will be hard to roster this week at their expensive price tags.
Targets: Tyler Lockett, Jeff Wilson Jr. and George Kittle
Fades: Russell Wilson and DK Metcalf (at least partially due to playing time concerns)
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If you have read my work over the years, you know about my adoration for Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson. I’m almost always on-board with using Wilson in a fantasy lineup, but I do take caution whenever a setup has a potential for failure. Surprisingly, as successful as Wilson has been in his career, he hasn’t always led his teams to wins in the final week of the regular season — and he has started every single one of them in his career. Sunday presents a tricky situation, as Wilson and the Seahawks should roll through the San Francisco 49ers, but again, history says otherwise. I will likely play it safe in this particular matchup and stay away entirely. That is also true because we have to take Seattle’s defense a little more seriously now than we did a few weeks ago. The competition hasn’t been great, but San Francisco’s offense is not world-beaters, and the Seahawks have done well against weaker offenses.
Targets: Jeff Wilson, Jr., George Kittle, D.K. Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett
Fades: Mostly everyone else, and partly because of playing time concerns
Must-Owns: None
Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It is completely understandable why this game was chosen to be the Sunday night game because of the NFC East implications, but that does not mean we should be excited about the game. Washington is set to roll out Taylor Heinicke if Alex Smith is unable to start, and either quarterback seems likely to be without top-receiver Terry McLaurin. This Washington offense has been one of the least exciting groups all season long no matter who has been on the field, and that is unlikely to change much this week. The Eagles may be eliminated from the playoffs, but Jalen Hurts is still playing hard to show he belongs, and Doug Pederson may well be coaching for his job after a painfully disappointing season. I think the Eagles manage to win this game, but against this Washington defense, I don’t think it gets done with a big game offensively.
Targets: Antonio Gibson, J.D. McKissic, Jalen Hurts, and Eagles defense
Fades: Washington Football Team starting quarterback
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The obvious, must-watch storyline in anticipation of Sunday Night Football is the status of Washington Football Team quarterback Alex Smith. At least, in terms of fantasy potential. The Football Team can win without him, as it is built on defense, but his presence makes the offense viable. Since we are mainly viewing the matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles in terms of a ‘Showdown’ lineup, it’s obviously possible to lean on Washington’s defense there, as well. Otherwise, a ‘contrarian’ route might simply be to ‘stack’ players from the Eagles, as a possible breakthrough against Washington will likely separate such a lineup from the pack.
Targets: Jalen Hurts, Greg Ward, Zach Ertz, Antonio Gibson, and J.D. McKissic
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None, but J.D. McKissic gets a boost in a point-per-reception format if Alex Smith plays