The finish line is in sight. Four teams, three games, and two weekends of play to decide one champion.
By now, we have weeded out the weak. The Texans and injury-riddled Dolphins and Raiders are eliminated. The Cowboys’ defense and Giants’ offense led to exits in each team’s first game. And the Seahawks and Chiefs simply failed to rise to the occasion. The Patriots, Steelers, Packers, and Falcons – all top-three seeds in their conference – have earned the right to play on Sunday afternoon.
Not surprisingly, the remaining four teams all share an important commonality – outstanding quarterbacks. Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, and Matt Ryan feature a combined seven championships, and it is no accident that they have led their teams this deep into the playoffs. It speaks to our postseason projections article, where we based many of our expectations on the play surrounding the quarterback position. There is no more fitting ending to conference play than a battle between a quartet of the game’s best and the defenses’ attempts to slow them down.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2016 Season: 51-67-3 (Last Week: 0-2)
(2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2)
All Picks Against Spread – 2016 Season: 121-135-8 (Last Week: 1-3)
(2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4)
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons
As objective football fans, we owe Green Bay a debt of gratitude for playing one of the most exciting games of the season in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Not only was it the first matchup decided by fewer than thirteen points – later, the battle between the Chiefs and Steelers would be settled by two points – but it was a legitimate, heart-pounding thriller that drew more eyeballs to the television than any other Divisional Round matchup in the last 20 years – according to Yahoo!
As we frequently point out, an influx in viewers also produces a more tilted perception. As a result of the ‘casual fan’ watching another offensive showcase led by Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the point total for Green Bay’s next game ballooned to an incredibly-high number. We don’t always track this, but movement anywhere is important to note.
In reality, how could the number not move up? One day after witnessing Matt Ryan – in the running for the league’s ‘Most Valuable Player’ Award – and the Atlanta Falcons seemingly scoring at will against the Seahawks’ defense, Rodgers and the Packers exploded again. More importantly, neither Atlanta nor Green Bay features a stout defense as the two teams allowed the eighth-most and eleventh-most yards in the league, respectively.