Can you believe it? We are almost halfway through the 2018 NFL season. Halfway through one of the most fun years we have had. Halfway through another season in which this column would rank in the top-three of experts against-the-spread at NFLPickwatch. And halfway through a season in which we just had our first losing week – and by a single game, at that.
Not coincidentally, we are also halfway through a season in which the ‘popular’ teams have emerged and were incredibly profitable in Week 7. As I write on a yearly basis whenever this happens, continually going to the metaphorical well and expecting the same returns is a recipe for disaster. This was also the focal point of Episode 4 of my podcast – also embedded below.
The beauty of how this season has unfolded is that a healthy number of ‘traps’ or sneaky plays have been present every single week. And they’ve delivered. Even when the Chiefs or Rams continue to win and cover spreads, the Chargers and Falcons are there to fail in spectacular fashion.
This is the way picking against-the-spread is supposed to go, and we should relish the opportunity to recognize it while we are in the middle of it. Because we have seen what it’s like to get caught in the outlier season, and we had confidence that it will swing back to our direction.
Right now, we are halfway through the type of year built for our style of picking games against-the-spread.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2018 Season: 29-15-3 (Last Week: 3-1-1)
(2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (4-Year Total: 236-206-11)
All Picks Against Spread – 2018 Season: 58-41-8 (Last Week: 6-7-1)
(2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (4-Year Total: 552-486-30)
Listen to Episode 4 of our free podcast here:
Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans
I feel like we are being punished.
The Thursday Night Football games were on the right track. We had the Vikings and Rams in a slugfest. The Patriots and Colts – albeit, in a one-sided contest. A desperate team in a divisional fight when the Giants were put our of their misery by the Eagles.
And then we were handed the Broncos and Cardinals, and I questioned what we must have done to deserve such a pitiful fate. Now, I know that my words will be eaten, as this week, we are served an even less palatable dish of the Houston Texans and Miami Dolphins. The Brock Osweiler-led Miami Dolphins.
Maybe I lied. Maybe it won’t be so bad. Because every time I see the name “Brock Osweiler,” I am reminded that some foolish organization was duped by a backup quarterback’s decent stretch-of-play and offered said backup an insane contract to become a starter. That same foolish organization is the one against which that same backup-turned-starting quarterback will play on national television. If, nothing else, we will be entertained.
Thursday’s storyline is so sweet that it is the only narrative worth following. It allows us to remove the statistics from either team and focus on a dual revenge. We normally don’t get this opportunity.