I have to be fair. If I point to an average record in a difficult week as a ‘win,’ then I must point to good record in an ‘easy’ week as a ‘breakeven.’ Such is the task laid out before us.
We aim to win, and I frequently comment that staying afloat in weeks where others sink is just as valuable as winning weeks. It’s true. But, we have to acknowledge when a week was inflated.
Like last week.
Look at the teams that covered their respective spreads. The Chiefs are an ‘easy’ pick. So were the Ravens. Dallas was playing against a backup quarterback and won by eight points, where the spread never reached that number. And, of course, the Patriots are a team to which most people turn on any given week. They covered, too.
The point is that we turned in a winning week when it was imperative to do so. But, more specifically, we kept pace where others could have gained ground. Now, we can look for those who benefited from an ‘easy’ week to take false positives too far.
And we can capitalize.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2019 Season: 36-31-2 (Last Week: 4-2)
(2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (5-Year Total: 299-254-15)
All Picks Against Spread – 2019 Season: 83-76-3 (Last Week: 9-5)
(2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (5-Year Total: 689-604-42)
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
That was bad.
If you have read my column for years, then you know my general feelings on the Houston Texans and head coach Bill O’Brien. Essentially, I never see enough from him for me to trust him fully. Especially when the stakes are raised.
He proved this again in last week’s loss to the Ravens.
The Texans were never in the game against Baltimore. Period. When asked to go toe-to-toe with one of the few AFC teams that clearly has a trip to the playoffs planned, Houston didn’t even show up to the game.