This is always one of my favorite articles to write, and it’s because it works in conjunction with the picks. I’m able to multi-task in a way that is unique only to this week and the first of any given season.
The difference between the start of the playoffs and the start of the regular season is that we aren’t faced with an open-ended possibility for every team. This isn’t the example of “hope springs eternal.” It’s the opposite. Now is the time to start trimming the options and find the teams that really have the chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
Or the teams that have too great of value to ignore.
NFL Odds to Win Super Bowl LVIII – Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook via TheLines.com:
1st Seed – San Francisco 49ers (2.2 to 1)
1st Seed – Baltimore Ravens (3.1 to 1)
2nd Seed – Buffalo Bills (6.5 to 1)
2nd Seed – Dallas Cowboys (7.5 to 1)
3rd Seed – Kansas City Chiefs (10 to 1)
6th Seed – Miami Dolphins (18 to 1)
5th Seed – Philadelphia Eagles (18 to 1)
3rd Seed – Detroit Lions (18 to 1)
5th Seed – Cleveland Browns (30 to 1)
6th Seed – Los Angeles Rams (40 to 1)
4th Seed – Houston Texans (50 to 1)
4th Seed – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (60 to 1)
7th Seed – Green Bay Packers (90 to 1)
7th Seed – Pittsburgh Steelers (120 to 1)
There’s no denying that it’s basically the San Francisco 49ers versus the field — at least, in the NFC — as the 49ers have shorter odds than last year’s top option and eventual Super Bowl Champion. But San Francisco isn’t completely alone. The Baltimore Ravens also have shorter odds than the Chiefs of last year, making it an extremely top-heavy group. In addition, those two teams serve as the top seeds in their conference, where two other two-seeds ranked in the top-three one year ago. Of course, we need to determine what to do with this information. Do we believe it’s the 49ers and Ravens and then everyone else? Or can we take the relative value with one of the teams pushed down the list? Let’s return to these teams later in the writeup.
And, with that, let’s knock out a few options to better trim our list. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the first to go, and this should not be a surprise to anyone. The combination of head coach Todd Bowels and quarterback Baker Mayfield certainly outperformed my expectations, but I’m not asking them to do it again in this field of competitors. The NFC South was winnable for Tampa Bay. The NFC is not. The Cleveland Browns are another relatively easy team to ‘sell’ here and it’s because of the unsustainable run on which quarterback Joe Flacco currently has his team. Finally, the third team