Whenever I wait to write the introduction to a column until I am finished with the entire set of picks, it’s because I want to see if there is a theme to follow. That’s what I did here, and the theme is one of the ones we seek on most weeks.
Perception.
Usually, I write that word infinity times throughout September but, but now, it starts to fade in popularity. Not this week.
So many of the games ahead of us feature at least one team whose value is directly tied to how the football-watching world sees it.
Mistakenly sees it, as we like to prove.
And that’s what ended up happening for a large number of games this week.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or Fanatics Sportsbook (formerly PointsBet). All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2025 Season: 40-27 (Last Week: 3-4)
(2024 Season: 65-57) (2023 Season: 63-61-4) (2022 Season: 54-54-5) (2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (11-Year Total: 646-561-30)
All Picks Against Spread – 2025 Season: 89-75 (Last Week: 8-7)
(2024 Season: 148-136-1) (2023 Season: 142-135-8) (2022 Season: 143-132-9) (2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (11-Year Total: 1554-1379-76)
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
Because every week starts with a lone game on Thursday night, it always gets extra attention both from my writing and the football-watching world. The problem is that so many of the games have turned out to be disappointments, either on-paper or on the field for its actual event.
This week appears to bring more of the same.
On one side we have a Buffalo Bills team that is rising back up the standings in pursuit of a division lead and just rebounded from a tough loss to put up 44 points in a win last week. Standing in opposition is the Houston Texans, one of the more unstable teams in the league, which expected to get back starting quarterback C.J. Stroud for this week but has now confirmed that he will miss another game.
Again, on-paper, this is a disappointment.
And yet