As good as some matchups appear to be on paper in terms of purely competitive football, we also have a decent amount of potentially lopsided games. Thankfully, this split allows us to find targets from either option, especially when seeking members of the passing attack, as the heavy underdogs tend to shine in this area.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 8 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
New York Jets at Chicago Bears
Luke’s DFS Take: The Jets’ offense has had its ups-and-downs, this year, but they are dealing with a slew of injuries and find themselves with a very poor matchup. The Bears’ defense has been beaten up two weeks in a row, but that was in brutally hot conditions in Miami, and then against the Patriots so I’m willing to give them a pass for now. This seems like an absolutely perfect opportunity to buy into a home defense that is full of talent, has a great matchup and has disappointed recently. The Bears’ offense has become people’s favorite target, and it’s worked a few weeks in a row, much to my dismay. Last week was especially frustrating because watching the game, they didn’t actually play well, but the way the game unfolded allowed them to run a ton of plays and score points while playing from behind. It’s doubtful that this week provides that same opportunity. The matchup is solid, but the game flow doesn’t work in their favor. I will try one more week to fade this offense; and if they kill me again I’ll have to reconsider moving forward. Therefore, I would also consider the Jets’ defense for their price.
Mario’s DFS Take: A pair of teams that normally split the running game workload will meet on Sunday, but one will have a clear workhorse in the absence of his counterpart. An injury to Bilal Powell leaves Isiah Crowell alone in the backfield and in position to shine. Granted, he is battling his own injury and the game flow works against him, as the Jets will likely be trailing by the game’s end, but the Jets’ 197 rush attempts – eighth-most in the league – are only slightly fewer than the team’s pass attempts – 221, ninth-fewest in the league. That does, however, lead to a potential uptick in pass attempts. Jermaine Kearse is essentially the only healthy member left for quarterback Sam Darnold to target, and he should be an inexpensive source of fantasy points on Sunday. For the Bears, I was all-in on Tarik Cohen in a tough game against the Patriots, last week, but Jordan Howard slides back to the top of my list against the Jets. Howard still leads the two-back committee in touches, even if we add in Cohen’s receptions.