Last week, it felt as if question marks were everywhere due to injuries. Now, we have clarity in a number of games, and we can attack them without restraint.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 11 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Dallas has been mostly disappointing since their hot opening to the season, but a matchup against this Lions defense, and an offense that is likely to be without Matthew Stafford again bodes well for their chances. Ezekiel Elliott should have a field day against this Lions defense that is allowing more fantasy points per game than any other defense in the league. J.D. McKissic is worth considering due to his usage in the passing game, especially considering the Lions may be playing from behind for most of this game.
Targets: J.D. McKissic, Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper – if healthy – and Michael Gallup even more so if Amari Cooper is out or limited
Fades: Jake Driskel
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Dallas Cowboys should be better defensively. Period. Thankfully for them, they get the chance to play against a backup quarterback when Jeff Driskel lines up under center for the Detroit Lions. Simply put, I can’t expect much of Driskel. Perhaps he doesn’t turn the ball over enough to make the Cowboys’ defense an elite play, but I would feel comfortable using this game as an opportunity for Dallas to shut down an opponent. This also means that Ezekiel Elliott should have some touches if the Cowboys have a lead to protect. More importantly, the Lions have barely stopped anyone, so any offensive player from Dallas is worth a look. It’s just less likely that the Cowboys will need to throw.
Targets: Anyone from Dallas
Fades: No one rom Detroit
Must-Owns: Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys’ defense
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Gardner Minshew filled in admirably, but Nick Foles is back, and the Jaguars could be set up to make some noise down the stretch. With Leonard Fournette playing well, and the defense still filled with talent, this week presents the perfect time for the Jaguars to turn their season around and make a run at a playoff spot. The Colts have been solid as expected, but the offense lacks any dynamic players at the moment, so I expect Jacksonville to be in control of this game.
Targets: Jaguars Defense, Leonard Fournette and DJ Chark Jr.
Fades: Colts Offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: For only the second time, all season, both the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars will have their starting quarterbacks under center. But, that’s a bit deceiving. A the same time that the Jaguars were signing Nick Foles to a contract, the Colts were planning on Andrew Luck serving as the quarterback as soon as he became healthy enough to play. Luck’s retirement and Foles’ injury technically sent both AFC South teams into ‘panic mode.’ At least, relative to the offseason plans. Now, we can see both at full capacity, and it should be one of the more competitive games of the afternoon. Foles has an uncanny ability to bring out the best in his teammates, and this might be the perfect time to stack him and a wide receiver for a tournament lineup.
Targets: Nick Foles, Leonard Fournette, and D.J. Chark – although it is a little risky to try to project which Jaguars player will get the most looks from Foles
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Dolphins are riding high on the back of two consecutive wins, but this week is probably the end of that. I’m often critical of the Bills, but their defense is good enough to take care of this Dolphins offense that is missing multiple pieces in an already thin group. The Dolphins defense is still a huge liability despite last week’s showing, and I expect Devin Singletary to use his increased workload to dominate this game.
Targets: Bills Defense
Fades: Dolphins Offense
Must-Owns: Devin Singletary
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m simply not going to buy into the Miami Dolphins in any capacity after their two wins. In fact, I was more eager to use some of their fantasy players when they were still seeking wins compared to already having secured two. The desire to use a player from the Dolphins shrinks even more when we consider the opponent. The Buffalo Bills have allowed 20 points or more only twice, all season. One was an embarrassment against the Eagles in which Buffalo collapsed in the second half of the game. The other was at home against Miami. The Bills’ defense is one of the top plays of the afternoon.
Targets: None outside of the Bills’ defense
Fades: Everyone else
Must-Owns: Buffalo’s defense
Denver Broncos at Minnesota Vikings
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Denver somewhat shocked the world before its bye week with a solid showing behind Brandon Allen, but I can’t expect another good game from him as he travels to Minnesota. This sets up perfectly as a game where the Vikings run the ball 40 times and win a game without really breaking a sweat. There isn’t much to like with this matchup outside of the Vikings defense and running backs.
Targets: Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison
Fades: Broncos Offense
Must-Owns: Vikings Defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The fact that a quarterback making his first career start matched the Denver Broncos’ season-high point total was impressive. But, so is the fact that the Minnesota Vikings continue to fight regression. At least, in any damaging capacity. Maybe the Vikings get caught, this week, but it is more likely that their defense shuts down Brandon Allen in the second start of his career and gives Minnesota’s offense extra time on the field. The increased volume works in running back Dalvin Cook’s favor, as does the matchup with Denver’s run defense – which is slightly worse than its pass defense.
Targets: I’d carefully take some chances with Minnesota’s offense, including Kirk Cousins and a pass-catcher
Fades: Everyone from Denver
Must-Owns: Dalvin Cook
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Matchups between the Saints and Buccaneers almost always produce something crazy, and I fully expect it this week. The Saints are coming off what can only be described as an embarrassing loss, and one that seriously hurts their reputation and the most solid team in the NFC. I expect Drew Brees and this offense to take out their frustrations on this Buccaneers defense that has been shred apart through the air all season long. The Buccaneers offense has done plenty of damage itself this year, and given the game flow here, and the possible absence of Marshone Lattimore, they should be able to produce enough to keep the game somewhat close, and provide tons of fantasy gold.
Targets: All relevant offensive players
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: None – but this is an obvious game stack favorite
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If, as the bullet point suggests, we are to look for storylines and notes for this week’s game between the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, then we have plenty. Like the fact that New Orleans scored a total of nine points and didn’t reach the end zone in its last game. Or that the Buccaneers are allowing the most points-per-game in the league. But, we also can’t forget that Tampa Bay is scoring the third-most points-per-game. Essentially, everything points to this divisional matchup featuring offense and, while I can’t completely disagree, I will also temper my expectations slightly. Stacking Michael Thomas and Drew Brees is always an option, but I will also look to Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin as the Buccaneers will have to throw in order to win. Or, at least, compete.
Targets: Everyone on either offense, but I would look more toward a mini-stack than a full game stack
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Jameis Winston might be the quarterback around which most of my lineups get built
New York Jets at Washington Redskins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Looking at these two defenses, it’s so tempting to be heavily targeting this game, but then looking at how these offenses have fared, it’s easy to see this game isn’t worth much attention. Dwayne Haskins hasn’t shown much in his limited playing time, and likely doesn’t take advantage of this matchup. The Jets’ offense has largely been terrible all season, and I’m officially done with suggesting Robby Anderson because Sam Darnold is clearly more comfortable throwing the ball short to Jamison Crowder. With two turnover prone offenses, both defenses are in play despite their struggles this year.
Targets: Both Defenses, Terry McLaurin, and Jamison Crowder
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If we learned anything from the New York Jets winning a pillow fight against the Giants, it’s that the offense still has a long way to go. It’s a problem that has plagued New York since the start of the season, but the Jets simply leave too many points on the field and off the scoreboard. And, despite the favorable matchup against the 1-8 Washington Redskins, I’m not so sure anything changes on Sunday. Washington gave up at least 31 points in four-of-its-first-five games to start the year, but hasn’t done so since then. This lowers the ceiling for the Jets’ offensive players – although we do get Jameson Crowder in a ‘revenge game.’ But, Dwayne Haskins will be starting for the Redskins, and he has done absolutely nothing to dissuade me from using the Jets’ defense on Sunday.
Targets: Jameson Crowder and both defenses – although I will almost certainly go elsewhere unless price is a major concern
Fades: Most offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Falcons pulled off possibly the ‘upset’ of the season last week, but lost Austin Hooper and Devanta Freeman in the process. That opens the door for Brian Hill to provide great value this week against the porous Panthers run defense. The Panthers are playing for their playoff lives at this point, and I expect their offense to put up good numbers this week against a Falcons defense that has been one of the worst in the league all season outside of last weeks performance. This game as a lot of playable targets due to the high concentration of touches on both teams.
Targets: Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel, and Greg Olsen
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Brian Hill
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There were quite a few ‘upsets,’ last week, but none shook the football world more than the Atlanta Falcons going into New Orleans and knocking off a division rival. But, doing so now begs an important question, “What are the Falcons?” Are they good? I can’t imagine that they are, given the 2-7 record. But, are they bad? Not if they play like they did, last week. The problem Atlanta faces is that it has not proven that it can consistently repeat a performance like the one we saw against the Saints. Which means that, while we can use some players from the Falcons, we still have to lean on the Carolina Panthers for our fantasy players. The top choice is, of course, Christian McCaffrey, as he tries to dominate every team and every game. He carries an injury designation, yet again, but this has been a trend of the past few weeks. If anything, it helps keep ownership slightly lower than it would be otherwise.
Targets: Kyle Allen, Curtis Samuel, D.J. Moore, Greg Olsen, Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Calvin Ridley
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Probably Christian McCaffrey
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The last time the Ravens had a blowout victory, they held on for a close win against the Cardinals the following week. Following the blowout against the Bengals, they face a tough Texans team that is not a good matchup for them. The Texans are allowing the third fewest rushing yards per game this season, and they should be able to force Lamar Jackson to beat them with his arm, which he’s been inconsistent with this year. I like the Texans to pull off the ‘upset’ this week led by their own MVP candidate, Deshaun Watson.
Targets: Deshaun Watson
Fades: Ravens Offense
Must-Owns: DeAndre Hopkins
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If a game between the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans had been played a few years ago, we might be looking at both defenses as our only fantasy targets. Now, it’s the complete opposite. Basically everyone is in-play for both teams, although I am almost definitely going to have a lineup with Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins. Lamar Jackson is getting a lot of love in the conversation for the league’s Most Valuable Player award, but Watson is certainly in the discussion. He might want to show it in a head-to-head battle.
Targets: All offensive players
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins, as this would be another centerpiece for my lineups
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: So much of my interest in this game will come down to injuries, but there should be plenty of potential targets. No matter who is available, I expect the Cardinals to keep the game close, similar to the last time these teams met. It will have to come in similar fashion as last game in which Kenyan Drake dominated our of the backfield. With David Johnson back, he could be used in a similar manor, so both guys are viable. I fully expect the 49ers to try to establish their run game this week after struggling with it last week, and with the likely absence of George Kittle and possibly Emanuel Sanders.
Targets: Kenyan Drake, David Johnson, Tevin Coleman, and Deebo Samuel
Fades: Kyler Murray and Jimmy Garappolo
Must-Owns: Raheem Mostert – assuming Matt Breida is ruled out as expected
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The San Francisco 49ers’ defense is one of the best I’ve seen in years. On the field and in terms of true value, it has a decided edge over an Arizona Cardinals offense that has been inconsistent and, as I often write, “frenetic.” But, the “frenetic” nature of the offense is exactly why I like it for fantasy purposes. There is volume in the frenzy, as well as random bursts of success and big plays – we saw the latter in the last meeting between these two teams. Quarterback Kyler Murray will, once again, be throwing often and, even if Christian Kirk doesn’t find the end zone three times in a game, again, he is an integral part of the offense. Larry Fitzgerald should also be involved, as the 49ers will be forced to give more attention to Kirk than they would like.
Targets: Kyler Murray, Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald, Deebo Samuel
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Raiders have surprised this year, and have earned the right to be considered a playoff contender. With that said, they aren’t exactly known to blow teams out, partially because of their love of running the ball and partially because their defense is still largely terrible. I expect the Bengals to have a better showing this week behind Ryan Finley as they keep things interesting in what could quietly be one on the more high-scoring games of the week.
Targets: Ryan Finley, Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd and Darren Waller
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: Josh Jacobs
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The more I look into it, the more I actually like the Cincinnati Bengals’ offense on Sunday. It feels a lot like Opening Day, where the Bengals were completely undervalued because of their matchup. The Oakland Raiders have less clout than the Seahawks, but Oakland is a heavy favorite in a game that could be a blowout. Still, the Raiders have been terrible defensively, and the Bengals were able to make some progress in their last game against the Ravens. As always, starting a running back against Cincinnati is as close to a guaranteed ‘big performance’ as it gets, and it will probably be a necessity to own Josh Jacobs.
Targets: Ryan Finley, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, and Darren Waller
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Josh Jacobs
New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: You have the Patriots coming off a bye week, following a loss, against a bad secondary, against the team Tom Brady is still pissed about losing too in the Super Bowl. Call me crazy but that’s an awful lot of reasons for the Patriots to put a beat down on this Eagles team, and that’s the storyline I will be going with this week.
Targets: Patriots Defense, Tom Brady, Julian Edelman, Mohamed Sanu, and Philip Dorset
Fades: Eagles Offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: One of the common messages we have repeated over the course of this season is that the Philadelphia Eagles can be beaten using a relentless offensive attack. Specifically, if a team throws the ball well, it can thrive against Philadelphia. Enter Tom Brady. Say what you will about Brady’s current rate of production possibly dipping – it is still outstanding – there is simply no reason why he wouldn’t thrive on Sunday. And we can’t overlook the fact that New England’s defense is bordering on ‘historically great,’ allowing no more than 14 points in seven-of-its-eight games.
Targets: Tom Brady, Julian Edelman, and New England’s defense
Fades: Everyone from Philadelphia
Must-Owns: None
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Coming into the year, this game was probably being looked at as a marquee matchup of two teams favored to be battling for NFC supremacy. Fast forward to today, and this is a matchup of two of most disappointing teams in the league compared to their preseason expectations. Both defenses still posses high-end talent, and both offenses are struggling, so it’s hard for me to justify having any real expectations for this game outside of trying to be contrarian for a primetime slate.
Targets: David Montgomery – if he’s healthy enough for a full workload – and Cooper Kupp
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As always, I like to look at the night games as a pairing. In doing so, it’s undeniable that the Monday Night Football matchup will get much more attention than the Sunday night game in terms of fantasy relevancy. I get it. I see it. I even agree with it. But the ‘contrarian’ inside of me sees this as an opportunity that can be exploited. In doing so, I will absolutely be using offensive players from the Los Angeles Rams. But, if I decide to also make a lineup that is heavier from Monday night’s game, it will also be the Rams’ defense that I target from Sunday.
Targets: If I’m leaning on Sunday night being higher scoring, then Jared Goff and his wide receivers with maybe the addition of Todd Gurley and David Montgomery
Fades: Chicago’s offense, unless you want to go completely ‘contrarian’
Must-Owns: Rams defense and Cooper Kupp
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers – in Mexico
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The return of Patrick Mahomes may not have led to a victory, but it certainly wasn’t the offense’s fault. Mahomes has one of best games of the season, and once again, the Chiefs’ defense got dismantled by a running back. Both defenses in this game have actually struggled at stopping running backs, so even though it’s neither teams preferred strategy, we could see an emphasis on the running game this week in a game that figures to produce plenty of offense.
Targets: All top offensive players
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Damien Williams and Melvin Gordon
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Monday Night Football has the potential to be huge offensively. On one side, we have the Kansas City Chiefs with quarterback Patrick Mahomes playing his second game since returning from injury. On the other, we have the Chiefs’ defense that bleeds yards and points. We also have a rivalry that has seen big offensive performances. The matchup is simply too good to ignore, and I can’t avoid stacking this game with at least one lineup. It’s not worth listing the options, as everyone is in-play. If, however, I wanted to be crazy – which has occasionally produced some great results – I would actually use the Los Angeles Chargers’ defense in either a Showdown or Primetime contest. Los Angeles is quite good defensively and, if this game were to go against the expected script, it would be because the Chargers shut down the Chiefs.
Targets: If ‘contrarian,’ then everyone from the Chargers
Fades: If ‘contrarian,’ then everyone from the Chiefs
Must-Owns: Patrick Mahomes, unless you’re completely avoiding Kansas City intentionally