The end of the regular season carries with it a major dropoff in options when it comes to DFS targets. Thankfully, the first round of the playoffs still allows for us to assess six different games and twelve teams. We aren’t at the point where we are scraping the bottom of the barrel for value just yet.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Wild Card Round NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings. For the playoffs, we will be using the full round classic slate for pricing.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Devin Singletary ($5,700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Nico Collins ($7,000), C.J. Stroud ($6,800), Amari Cooper ($6,,800), Joe Flacco ($6,100), Jerome Ford ($5,500), Noah Brown ($5,100), Kareem Hunt ($4,700), Dalton Schultz ($4,400), Elijah Moore ($4,000), Robert Woods ($3,600), Browns Defense ($3,300), and Texans Defense ($3,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: David Njoku ($5,600)
Lottery Ticket: John Metchie III ($3,200)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Joe Flacco ($6100), Browns Defense ($3300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Nico Collins ($7000), C.J. Stroud ($6800), Amari Cooper ($6800), Devin Singletary ($5700), Jerome Ford ($5500), Noah Brown ($5100), Kareem Hunt ($4700), Dameon Pierce ($4500), Elijah Moore ($4000), Pierre Strong Jr. ($4400), Texans Defense ($3000)
Underpriced for Expectation: David Njoku ($5600), Dalton Schultz ($4400)
Lottery Ticket: John Metchie III ($3200)
Must-Own: None
Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tyreek Hill ($8,700), Patrick Mahomes ($7,100), Tua Tagovailoa ($7,000), Rashee Rice ($6,600), and Jaylen Waddle ($6,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: De’Von Achane ($6,800), Raheem Mostert ($6,700), Travis Kelce ($6,100), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($4,800), Jeff Wilson Jr. ($4,200), Justin Watson ($3,400), and MeCole Hardman ($3,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Chiefs Defense ($2,900)
Lottery Ticket: Dolphins Defense ($2,800)
Must-Own: Isiah Pacheco ($6,400)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jaylen Waddle ($6500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Patrick Mahomes ($7100), Tua Tagovailoa ($7000), De’Von Achane ($6800), Raheem Mostert ($6700), Rashee Rice ($6600), Isiah Pacheco ($6400), Travis Kelce ($6100), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($4800), Jeff Wilson Jr. ($4200), Chiefs Defense ($2900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Justin Watson ($3400)
Lottery Ticket: Dolphins Defense ($2800)
Must-Own: Tyreek Hill ($8700)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Mason Rudolph ($5,100) and Gabe Davis ($5,300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Stefon Diggs ($7,400), James Cook ($6,600), Najee Harris ($5,400), George Pickens ($5,200), Jaylen Warren ($5,100), Diontae Johnson ($5,000), Dalton Kincaid ($4,600), Leonard Fournette ($4,400), Latavius Murray ($4,300), Pat Freiermuth ($3,600), and Steelers Defense ($2,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Bills Defense ($3,500)
Lottery Ticket: Khalil Shakir ($3,400)
Must-Own: Josh Allen ($8,000)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Mason Rudolph ($5300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Josh Allen ($8000), Stefon Diggs ($7400), James Cook ($6600), Najee Harris ($5400), Gabe Davis ($5300), Jaylen Warren ($5100), Dalton Kincaid ($4600), Leonard Fournette ($4400), Latavius Murray ($4300), Ty Johnson ($4200), Pat Freiermuth ($3600), Bills Defense ($3500), Steelers Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: George Pickens ($5200), Diontae Johnson ($5000)
Lottery Ticket: Khalil Shakir ($3400) — and he probably slides into the ‘must-own’ category if Game Davis is out
Must-Own: None
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Cowboys Defense ($3,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Dak Prescott ($7,600), Jordan Love ($6,300), Tony Pollard ($6,100), Jayden Reed ($5,700), Romeo Doubs ($5,400), Brandin Cooks ($4,900), Dontayvion Wicks ($4,800), Jake Ferguson ($4,700), Christian Watson ($4,500), Tucker Kraft ($3,300), Luke Musgrave ($3,200), and Packers Defense ($2,300)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Bo Melton ($3,300)
Must-Own: CeeDee Lamb ($9,000) and Aaron Jones ($6,300)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Cowboys Defense ($3600)
Fair Value for Expectations: CeeDee Lamb ($9000), Dak Prescott ($7600), Jordan Love ($6300), Aaron Jones ($6300), Tony Pollard ($6100), Jayden Reed ($5700), Romeo Doubs ($5400), Brandin Cooks ($4900), Dontayvion Wicks ($4800), Jake Ferguson ($4700), Rico Dowdle ($4600), Christian Watson ($4500), AJ Dillon ($4400), Packers Defense ($2300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Patrick Taylor ($4000)
Lottery Ticket: Bo Melton ($3300)
Must-Own: None
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Sam LaPorta ($6,000) injury concern and Lions Defense ($3,100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000), Kyren Williams ($7,300), Puka Nacua ($7,200), Matthew Stafford ($6,500), Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,500), Jared Goff ($6,200), David Montgomery ($6,200), Josh Reynolds ($3,800),Tyler Higbee ($3,400), and Rams Defense ($2,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: DeMarcus Robinson ($3,600)
Lottery Ticket: Jameson Williams ($3,500)
Must-Own: Cooper Kupp ($7,500)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Lions Defense ($3100)
Fair Value for Expectations: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8000), Cooper Kupp ($7500), Kyren Williams ($7300), Puka Nacua ($7200), Matthew Stafford ($6500), Jahmyr Gibbs ($6500), Jared Goff ($6200), Sam LaPorta ($6000), Josh Reynolds ($3800), Rams Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: David Montgomery ($6200)
Lottery Ticket: DeMarcus Robinson ($3600)
Must-Own: None
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: A.J. Brown ($8,100) injury concern and Baker Mayfield ($5,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jalen Hurts ($7,700), Rachaad White ($6,900), Mike Evans ($6,900), DeVonta Smith ($6,700), Chris Godwin ($6,200), D’Andre Swift ($6,000), Dallas Goedert ($4,800), Julio Jones ($3,900), Trey Palmer ($3,400), Buccaneers Defense ($3,200), and Cade Otton ($3,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Eagles Defense ($3,400)
Lottery Ticket: Quez Watkins ($3,500)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Baker Mayfield ($5800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jalen Hurts ($7700), Rachaad White ($6900), Mike Evans ($6900), DeVonta Smith ($6700), Chris Godwin ($6200), D’Andre Swift ($6000), Chase Edmonds ($4800), Dallas Goedert ($4800), Eagles Defense ($3400), Buccaneers Defense ($3200), Cade Otton ($3100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Kenneth Gainwell ($4900)
Lottery Ticket: Quez Watkins ($3500)
Must-Own: A.J. Brown ($8100)