In the end, it was average, at best. Everything about the regular season we just completed hovered around the mean and never deviated. But the biggest problem is that, when we did find opportunities to target a return to average, they were valued appropriately. So much so that we had an unprecedented number of games land right around the final spread.
I obviously never like these types of seasons because they aren’t winners, but it is important to recognize that we avoided sinking when the ocean was choppy. And we can continue to learn from them.
The numbers shown this year were quite accurate, but we have a natural break between the end of the regular season and the start of the playoffs. We obviously need to determine if this same trend will continue but, if there is any opportunity for value, we will attack it aggressively.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or PointsBet. All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2023 Season: 58-61-4 (Last Week: 1-6)
(2022 Season: 54-54-5) (2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (9-Year Total: 518-443-26)
All Picks Against Spread – 2023 Season: 132-132-8 (Last Week: 4-12)
(2022 Season: 143-132-9) (2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (9-Year Total: 1264-1108-67)
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans
Since before the season started, I was buying into the Houston Texans to surprise the football-watching world. But, was I expected them to host a playoff game with a division-winning 10-7 record? Definitely not. And even if I stretched my imagination to that point, I would have never landed on them facing resurgent veteran quarterback Joe Flacco and the Cleveland Browns. That surpasses all level of likelihood and bordered on impossible.
Yet here we are.
When it comes to the Browns and Flacco, it’s most likely a matter of “when,” not “if” the team and quarterback will falter. And it will probably happen without warning but with extreme gravity. Therefore, is Saturday the day? Or do the Browns end the Texans’ magical season?
That brings forward another interesting element of the matchup.