Week 11 is going to be fantastic, one way or another. Unlike last week’s schedule of lopsided games – that turned out to produce only a few close contests – Week 11 is filled with outstanding games. And, where this might lead to a lower fantasy appeal, we actually have relatively clear game flow projections thanks to each team’s strengths and weaknesses.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 11 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take: On paper, this is simply about as bad of a game as could be given the fact that these are two of worst teams in football. That doesn’t mean this game should be ignored in the fantasy world. The Giants are fresh off a Monday night victory in San Francisco, and the offense was actually able to make clutch plays and push the ball downfield a bit as well. Now they get to face off with possibly the worst passing defense in football, so continued success shouldn’t be ruled out. When the Giants’ offense has time, it has the weapons necessary to make plays. Given the matchup and the sneaky possibility that this game is high-scoring, I have no problem rostering any of the Giants’ main skill position guys – Saquon Barkley, Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard, and Evan Engram. Ryan Fitzpatrick continued his unique season last week in that he passed for over 400 yards, and his team had over 500 yards of total offense, yet he only managed to score three points. The Buccaneers had 5 redzone drives and only walked away with three points. All of that is alarming, but it is worth noting that this came against a very good Redskins defense that generates a strong pass rush and has a talented secondary. The Giants posses neither of those things, so I fully expect the Buccaneers to move the ball with ease, and put up far more points than they did last week. Any of Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Chris Godwin, Adam Humphries, and OJ Howard can be considered this week with varying degrees of confidence.
Mario’s DFS Take: If the New York Giants want to make one last push before season’s end, this is it. Playing at home after a win and going against one of the worst defenses in the sport, New York has the ideal setup. Along with momentum. Expect wide receiver Odell Beckham, Jr. to be busy, which also slides quarterback Eli Manning into the conversation. Of course, the dynamic talent that is Saquon Barkley has proven to be productive, regardless of game flow, and it seems almost impossible to write about the Giants without mentioning his name. Tampa Bay will be scoring, too, as it is the only thing the team does well – and it failed to do much of it, last week. After a three-point performance in Washington, expect the Buccaneers to be forcing the issue on Sunday. Ryan Fitzpatrick will be playing in the same location where he enjoyed the best season of his career – then, with the Jets – and he may not have many more opportunities left to show his worth. He also has wide receiver DeSean Jackson at his disposal, who made it a point to torch the Giants as a member of the Eagles, years ago. These two and the talent of Mike Evans give plenty of options for a fantasy lineup.