Whether it’s fantasy or real-world implications, Week 5 is littered with excellent matchups. Thankfully, we have a near-full slate ahead of us, so even if we decide to shy away from some games because of how close the two teams are, there are plenty of other options to be had elsewhere.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 5 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
New York Giants at Carolina Panthers
Luke’s DFS Take: In Week 3, Christian McCaffrey did everything he could to prove to people he is not just a receiving threat as he took 28 carries for a career high 184 rushing yards. Equally surprising, McCaffrey was only targeted twice in the game, but the Panthers clearly had an advantage running the ball and exploited it all game long. It’s probably safe to assume McCaffrey will see less carries than that normally, but also see more targets, and he is proving to be a legitimate dual threat that is a top fantasy option no matter the opponent or projected game script. McCaffrey and Cam Newton provide such a large portion of the Panthers’ offense, and coming off of a bye week, both should be fresh and ready for a big game against a Giants defense that has struggled to stop the run this year. The Giants’ offense is undeniably one of the most frustrating groups in the league. They may have one of the best group of playmakers of any team in the league, yet a poor offensive line, poor play calling, and mediocre quarterback play is limiting all of their upside. The problem with that is that you can’t easily ignore them ever because any given week because their talent could shine in any given game. Saquon Barkley has been everything he was advertised to be, and he has been as steady as could be scoring between 22 and 25 fantasy points in every game. He is always going to be heavily featured in the offense and should have no problem producing once again. Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard will continue on as the only real targets in the passing game which gives both value based on volume and their talents, but there is obvious risk in betting on the Giants passing game.
Mario’s DFS Take: Carolina’s bye week will throw off the numbers a bit, but the team enters play with one of the worst run-stopping defenses in the league. Enter Saquon Barkley. He is the unquestioned lead back for the Giants, but has the added bonus of not only contributing in the passing game, but dominating in it. His 35 targets and 27 receptions are both second on the team only behind Odell Beckham, Jr. Therefore, even if the game gets out-of-hand, Barkley will keep producing. Beckham is the skill position player most likely to benefit from the game flow, as the Giants will likely be chasing the Panthers, all game. This would normally lead to Carolina’s running back carrying the ball to run out the clock but, despite preseason reports that Christian McCaffrey would be leaned upon in the running game, he only had 18 total carries through the first two weeks of the season. His last game featured an explosion both in yards and touches, but I’m strictly using McCaffrey in a point-per-reception tournament because of his prowess in the passing game, not as a running back.