As we wrote in the introduction to one of our columns, last week, we’re starting to see the high-scoring nature of the 2020 season start to drift back down toward the mean. Not only is regression playing a role in Week 8, but we also have some solid defenses in good matchups that should limit the fantasy potential from their opponents.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 8 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Part of me is feeling an urge to jump in on a major Patriots offensive rebound, but outside of being ‘contrarian,’ there is really no reason to focus on this game much. After strong starts to the season for both offenses, the last few weeks have not been kind to either team. The Patriots haven’t broken 200 yards passing or 300 total yards of offense in their last two games, and the Bills haven’t reached 20 points in three straight games. There really doesn’t seem to be much reason to look at this game, despite the potential importance within this division.
Targets: Damien Harris, Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley
Fades: Both Quarterbacks
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Week-after-week, I have written about how much I believe in the New England Patriots’ defense and their ability to stop almost any team, but I’m starting to back down off that stance. The good news for New England is that the Buffalo Bills’ offense has stalled lately. The bad news for New England is that the Bills have been preparing for this game for years. If Buffalo were to win, it would likely bury New England in the divisional race. As usual, even if I expect the Patriots to score, there are too many mouths to feed — running backs, mainly — to trust anyone with extreme confidence.
Targets: Josh Allen and both defenses
Fades: Everyone else
Must-Owns: None
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: These two teams have been my kryptonite all season long, so a matchup between them is sure to be a disaster for me. The Titans are coming off their first loss of the season, and it came because their offense got swarmed by the elite Steelers defense from the start of that game. That shouldn’t be a concern this week as the Bengals defense hasn’t held a single team under 300 yards of offense all season long. I’m expecting the Titans to rebound nicely and score throughout this game. Despite how I continue to point out the horrible efficiency numbers for this Bengals team, they continue to produce massive total yardage numbers. The Titans’ defense happens to also have allowed over 300 yards of offenses in every game this season, so this game could be trending towards a high-scoring affair.
Targets: A.J. Brown, Jonnu Smith, Joe Burrow, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins and A.J. Green
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Derrick Henry
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I have supported the Tennessee Titans’ offense for a few weeks now, but we may be presented with the easiest buying opportunity of the year. The Cincinnati Bengals cannot stop the run and the Titans live to pound the ball with Derrick Henry. He’s a ‘must-own,’ regardless of game script. Said game script does lead to Cincinnati throwing as well, and the Bengals have not been afraid to let rookie quarterback Joe Burrow throw often. His volume keeps him in play, and his legs give an added bonus for a potential score when the team gets around the goal line.
Targets: Ryan Tannehill, Jonnu Smith, and A.J. Green
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Derrick Henry
Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I believe that last week saw the peak of what the Browns can be, and I have no confidence that they can do it once again. The Raiders are coming off a beat down, and now get a far more manageable task this week. I am fully expecting a bounce back game from the Raiders where they finally get back to establishing the run and controlling the game that way. The Raiders defense can’t stop anyone, so I think there is some appeal for the Browns as they play from behind, but not as much as people may want to think after last week’s showing.
Targets: Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller, Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry and Rashard Higgins
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We certainly have a strength-versus-strength battle between the run defense of the Cleveland Browns — sixth-best in yards-per-carry — and the rushing offense of the Las Vegas Raiders — 11th in attempts, but the efficiency swings heavily in Cleveland’s favor — the Raiders only rank 22nd in yards-per-carry. Still, both teams love to run the football, although it’s Las Vegas’ passing attack that has been thoroughly impressive. Game script might play a big role here, as a big lead for either team will force the trailing squad to throw. It sounds obvious, but neither offense wants to take to the air if it can avoid it. Cleveland has the fourth-fewest pass attempts in the league, while Las Vegas ranks 14th.
Targets: Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller, and Kareem Hunt
Fades: Baker Mayfield
Must-Owns: None, but Jacobs is close (especially if the weather is bad)
Indianapolis Colts at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We have been high on the Colts all season long, and despite some inconsistencies, this week has to be the week they come out and dominate and assert themselves. They are coming off their bye, which followed a major comeback victory, and get to face off with a mediocre Lions team that is in a prime letdown spot after their miracle victory last week. There may be some recency bias in this game for people who just watched the Lions game last week, but for this game to feel right, the Colts have to control the ball and dominate on defense.
Targets: Jonathan Taylor, Trey Burton and Kenny Golladay
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Simply put, which version of the Indianapolis Colts’ offense will we see on Sunday? If it’s the one that relentlessly scored against the Bengals prior to Indianapolis’ bye week, then we are in-store for another big performance against the Detroit Lions’ 22nd-ranked defense in yards-per-game. Otherwise, if the Colts go into a shell, then we are looking at a low-scoring game where Indianapolis leans on its second-ranked defense to shut down the Lions. It’s possible, as Detroit only ranks 23rd in yards-per-game.
Targets: Jonathan Taylor, Colts defense, and T.J. Hockenson
Fades: Both quarterbacks
Must-Owns: None
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Minnesota Vikings defense has been terrible, especially against the pass, so I have no doubt Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams will turn in another big game this week. With that said, coming out of their bye week, this feels like a time the Vikings could shock the world and play a tight game against their division rivals after that Week 1 embarrassment against this same Packers team. If the Vikings are going to compete though, it is going to have to be because their offense is able to keep pace, so I am beginning to like this game to be a high scoring battle.
Targets: Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Adam Thielen
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Whenever a game appears to be high-scoring simply by virtue of the two teams in play, I like to question it and see if there is a path for it to fail. In the case of the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers, I can’t see said path other than potentially bad weather.. This sets up for another typical back-and-forth offensive game between these two teams, and it means that everyone is a viable target. There are also reports that running back Dalvin Cook will be back in the lineup, which means that Minnesota should be at full strength following a week away from football. On the other side of the ball, no one is stopping the Packers’ offense right now, especially not a Vikings defense that is allowing the fifth-most yards-per-game.
Targets: Dalvin Cook (obviously, if healthy), Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adamas, and either Aaron Jones or Jamaal Williams (if Jones is out, Williams is possibly a ‘must-own’)
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It was nice to see the Jets not get entirely dominated for a week, but their offense was still largely terrible, and their defense gave up over 400 yards of offense despite somehow managing to keep the Bills out of the endzone. There really is not a lot to say about this game given other than the Chiefs can, should and will blow the Jets out. The only truly noteworthy comment here is that Le’Veon Bell had two 16 yard runs in his six carries last week, which is one more 16 yard carry than he had in his entire tenure as a Jet. This is the perfect week, for so many reasons, for the Chiefs to utilize Bell pretty heavily, so expect to see some decent numbers for Bell this week in what could be the last time we see his price as low as it is.
Targets: Denzel Mims (or Jamison Crowder if he is healthy) and the entire Chiefs team
Fades: Everyone else on the Jets
Must-Owns: Le’Veon Bell
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We have to give some credit to the New York Jets for putting ten points on the board in their last game, but said credit is only due because of the low bar they have set for themselves. If ten is noteworthy, then we really cannot expect anything from them in terms of fantasy value. Wide receiver Jamison Crowder remains the only potential play if he’s healthy, but only in point-per-reception formats. The other sneaky target could be rookie wide receiver Denzel Mims who finally saw his first game action and hauled in four catches for 42 yards on seven passes, all of which led the team in last week’s game. Otherwise, start anyone from the Kansas City Chiefs as it’s virtually impossible for them to not reach 30 points like every other non-division team has done against the Jets. Of course, if we’re noting storylines, then I have to mention Le’Veon Bell going against his former team from earlier this season. I’m certainly going to roll the dice with him somewhere.
Targets: Jamison Crowder (if healthy), Denzel Mims, Le’Veon Bell, and anyone else from Kansas City in moderation
Fades: All other Jets players
Must-Owns: None
Los Angeles Rams at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I never had any intentions on rooting against Tua Tagovailoa once he took over for Ryan Fitzpatrick, but I could not disagree more with the timing of this move for more reasons than I have time to explain here. At the end of the day, it feels like a mighty tall task to ask Tagovailoa to compete against a stacked Rams defense in his first NFL start. The Rams just showed the kind of pressure they can put on a quarterback last week, and I don’t see why they won’t be able to do that again this week. The Rams offense should continue to do what they do, which is march down the field methodically all game long and allow their defense to control the game. I don’t see Tagovailoa’s first start going the way he and the Dolphins are hoping.
Targets: Darrell Henderson Jr., Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Rams defense
Fades: Dolphins offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The obvious storyline for Sunday’s game between the Los Angeles Rams and Miami Dolphins is the first career start for rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. It will be the lead story before-and-after the game, but it leaves the actual contest somewhat unpredictable. I’m never against taking a chance with an unknown that has potential, so using Tagovailoa in at least one lineup makes sense, but I can also craft an easy narrative where he is either limited or ineffective. The other consideration is how the Rams’ offense will fare against the Dolphins. Los Angeles generally thrives on the east coast in the early timeslot, but the offensive outputs are somewhat subdued.
Targets Myles Gaskins, Preston Williams, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Rams defense
Fades: Too much exposure to either offense
Must-Owns: None
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As much as this may be the best game of the entire week from a real football perspective, it is not a game I have a ton of interest in from a fantasy perspective. Both of these teams boast elite defenses that have carried these teams all season long. If you look at the stats, both offenses are significantly outscoring their actual yardage production which is a result of their defenses getting them great scoring opportunities. Neither offense has been great on their own, and against these great defenses, I don’t have high expectations. It is possible this game has decent scoring, if the defenses are creating turnovers, but the overall production is unlikely to yield high end fantasy performances.
Targets: James Conner and Lamar Jackson
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: All season, I have written about the Baltimore Ravens’ offense ranking far worse than many would expect, and the task does not get any easier against an impenetrable Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense. The good news for Baltimore is that it does protect the football well, where Pittsburgh thrives in creating turnovers. The flip side of the matchup is almost identical, where Baltimore has the sixth-most takeaways in the league. In the end, I’m sure there will fantasy value in this game, and using at least one player is a wise ‘contrarian’ move, but I will probably stay away in the end.
Targets: Both defenses
Fades: Both offenses
Must-Owns: None
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I am normally the first person to be critical of young quarterbacks, but Justin Herbert has been legitimately very good this year. The matchup is not great against a fairly solid Broncos defense, but this Chargers offense has been viable to target every week since Herbert has taken over. The Broncos’ offense, on the other hand, has been a mess all season long. When Drew Lock got hurt, they did not stand a chance of being successful, but even since he has returned, he has not helped much. The Chargers’ defense does not present much of a let down in competition either, so it will be hard to have a lot of faith in any member of this Broncos offense until they show significant improvement.
Targets: Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, Chargers defense and Melvin Gordon (especially if Phillip Lindsay is out)
Fades: Broncos passing game
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s easy to look at the Denver Broncos’ complete inability to stop the Chiefs in Week 7 and expect the same outcome against the Los Angeles Chargers, but Kansas City was actually held under 300 yards of total offense. This means that we have to be careful if using players from Los Angeles. I’m not ready to trust many options from Denver’s offense, as the Broncos rank fifth-worst in yards and points-per-game.
Targets: Keenan Allen, Melvin Gordon, and both defenses
Fades: Everyone else on offense
Must-Owns: None
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Bears’ offense continues to be a gigantic liability, and there is no way around admitting that. Their offensive line is not giving them any time to do anything, and they do not have the talent at any skill position (outside of Allen Robinson II) to make up for that. The Saints’ defense has given up a ton of points this season, they do rank 7th in the league in yards allowed, so it seems like that their point totals allowed will start to trend downward. This week seems to be the perfect time for that given their matchup, and the potential absence of Robinson this week. I’m expecting this game to play out fairly similar to how the Bears game played last week against the Rams.
Targets: Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray, Saints defense, and Darnell Mooney
Fades: The rest of the Bears offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: One of my favorite plays in terms of fantasy football is going back to the proverbial well with a team that just played poorly on a national spotlight. With that, I am targeting the Chicago Bears to have a much better performance against the New Orleans Saints than we saw on Monday Night Football against the Rams. The problem is that I’m looking at the potential rebound from a macro level. If we’re diving in to target certain players, the potential loss of wide receiver Allen Robinson is devastating to the Bears. The more likely road to a better game comes from Chicago’s defense, which does limit the upside of the Saints’ offense. Running back Alvin Kamara remains a machine that apparently cannot be stopped, but he stays in the ‘must-play’ category if wide receiver Michael Thomas misses another game.
Targets: Alvin Kamara (who becomes a ‘must-start’ if Michael Thomas is out), Michael Thomas (if healthy), Darnell Mooney, and Jimmy Graham
Fades: Too much exposure to either offense
Must-Owns: None
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The injury count for these two teams, especially at the running back position, is making this game somewhat difficult to judge. At the end of the day, we have a 49ers offense that may have to rely on their mediocre passing game in a great matchup against a Seahawks offense that may have to rely on their amazing passing game in a tough matchup. It feels like this game is trending towards a 49ers victory, but I cannot in good conscience expect Jimmy Garoppolo to outduel Russell Wilson. Despite how good he played for most of last week, Wilson had three costly turnovers as well, and he is as likely as anyone to bounce back with a perfect game to steal a win his team may not deserve.
Targets: Jerick McKinnon, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Russell Wilson, Deejay Dallas (if all their other running backs are out) and Tyler Lockett
Fades: None
Must-Owns: DK Metcalf
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I was recently informed by the co-author of this article that virtually every running back in the game between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers is battling an injury. This is clearly a cause for concern, but it must be more worrisome for the 49ers as they greatly prefer to lean on their wide array of running backs. The good news for San Francisco is that they often find success with anyone running the ball, and this might be a nice path for a fantasy owner to grab cheap exposure to the 49ers’ rushing attack. Otherwise, we’d have to lean on both team’s passing game, and it’s not difficult to find production from Seattle’s wide receivers and quarterback Russell Wilson.
Targets: Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jerick McKinnon, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle
Fades: Jimmy Garoppolo
Must-Owns: None
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Things do not seem like they can get any worse for the Cowboys, but this week will be a major test. Their defense has been an abomination, and they are now trading away pieces from the already struggling group. The Eagles’ offense has had its ups and downs throughout the year, but it is nearly impossible to imagine a scenario in which this Eagles offense doesn’t score constantly throughout this game. On the other side, the Cowboys offense went from playing at a historic pace with Dak Prescott, to struggling mightily with Andy Dalton, and now they may be forced to start their third stringer, Ben DiNucci. DiNucci came in relief last week, and was not given much time at all to make any plays thanks to poor offensive line play, but it is hard to imagine that rookie seventh round pick is going to provide much of a boost to this struggling offense.
Targets: Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and any offensive player on the Eagles that is healthy enough to play
Fades: Ezekiel Elliott
Must-Owns: None, but playing Eagles players are a must
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: After last week’s game against Washington, I made it a point to target at least one player from every team that will go against the Dallas Cowboys’ pitiful defense. In a Primetime slate, that means a full ‘stack’ of the Philadelphia Eagles’ offense is a possibility. There is always a ‘contrarian’ route in a small slate, however, and it would come from Dallas’ passing attack. Philadelphia’s defense is good — 12th best in yards-per-game — but the obvious expectation for fantasy owners is that the Cowboys will lean on running back Ezekiel Elliott. Maybe. But if Ben DiNucci starts, he actually has the ability to run and possibly find his way into the end zone. Otherwise, if it’s Andy Dalton under center, he will have his third chance at breaking the 10-point barrier for his team’s offense.
Targets: Everyone from Philadelphia, whichever quarterback starts for Dallas, and Ezekiel Elliott
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Miles Sanders (if he is fully healthy)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: No matter how many different ways I look at this game, I don’t see a path to the Giants being competitive. Their offense has been inept all season long, which is made clear by the fact that their 325 yards of offense last week was their highest number of the season, and it took an impossible 80 yard run by Daniel Jones to reach that number. Now, they have to play against arguably the best defense in football, and there is simply not much hope for them. The Buccaneers offense has been hit or miss for most of the season, but they have constantly had the benefit of getting extra possessions and great field position thanks to their defense. Frankly, it doesn’t matter how well or poorly their offense plays because their defense is going to gift them points all game long here.
Targets: Tom Brady, Ronald Jones II, Leonard Fournette and Rob Gronkowski
Fades: The Giants
Must-Owns: Mike Evans and Buccaneers defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If we’re looking for another ‘contrarian’ play in a small slate, then the New York Giants’ offense perfect fits the bill. But, it’s also ‘contrarian’ because it defies logic. For the Giants’ offense to be the answer, it will have to find a way to move the ball against the third-toughest defense in the league — in yards-allowed-per-game. It isn’t likely. Conversely, New York’s defense has not been a problem — it ranks 14th in yards-per-game and fifth in yards-per-carry — while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense sits right in the middle of the pack for yards gained. The key is that Tampa Bay constantly forces short fields, as it has the sixth-best starting field position in the league. I’d lean more on finding touchdown-scorers than people who will accumulate yardage.
Targets: Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, Scotty Miller, Rob Gronkowski, Buccaneers’ defense, and one pass-catcher from the Giants (possibly even Dion Lewis out of the backfield)
Fades: Too much exposure to the Giants’ offense unless going fully ‘contrarian’
Must-Owns: None