So much of writing about sports picks comes down to the matchups and the head-to-head strengths and weaknesses. The tournament, however, does not directly follow that same setup. Of course, we cannot advance a team past a certain round without first asking if it can win its matchup, but the bracket is much bigger than that.
As I wrote in last year’s column, I am starting to see a much more vocal commentary about the best way to survive this wild time of the sports year. That is, you need to aim to win against others instead of win against the sheet of paper in front of you.
What does that mean? In a nutshell, spend less time thinking about Clemson and New Mexico and more time thinking about what your opponents expect to happen over the next few weeks. Do they have UConn repeating as national champions? Do you think it will happen? If those two differ in answers, then it’s time to attack.
Please always use your own discretion and do your research before risking anything. Below are my picks and thoughts about this year’s March Madness bracket. All odds are courtest of DraftKings Sportsbook
8 Mississippi State vs. 9 Michigan State (-120) and Michigan State to Reach Sweet 16 (+350)
I’m going to start with one of the most fascinating matchups of the first round. Michigan State, with one of the most accomplished head coaches in college basketball history, is a slight favorite despite the worse seed in the 8-9 pairing. It’s also the first game to tip-off the tournament, and I don’t know how name value isn’t the main storyline here. But, what is that worth? The Spartans lost some steam in the moneyline and spread, and it feels like this is the epitome of a “flip the switch” moment. Not only will I take Michigan State to find a way to win, but I’ll also take the nice odds in them being the underdog to ‘upset’ a top seed in the second round.
Purdue to Reach Final 4 (+165)
Until a few years ago, no 16-seed had ever beaten a 1-seed. Now, it’s happened twice. The first time? Virginia was stunned by University of Maryland – Baltimore County. But what happened immediately afterward? Virginia went on to win the National Championship the following season. Maybe it’s not enough to cause a trend, but it’s certainly fair to argue that the loss galvanized the program and allowed it to re-focus. Purdue was last year’s 1-seed to lose, and I’m absolutely asking them to rebound with a deep tournament run.
7 Washington State (+102) vs. 10 Drake
One of the best approaches to trying to outwit the competition is to find the teams that many are considering as ‘sleepers’ who can make a deep run with a double-digit seed. Enter Drake. Every blurb you’ll read about the Bulldogs will explain how they can win multiple games. And indeed, they can. But Washington State opened as the favorite, and I suspect that’s a sneaky indication that the Cougars have the slight edge. I’ll take it.
Kentucky to Reach Elite 8 (+295)
I’m definitely leaning on the experience and name value, but how can we ignore Kentucky as a 3-seed? Not only do they have the makeup of a team that could win multiple game, but the scouting report on the Wildcats is that they are one of the best offensive teams in the country, including a 42.2 shooting percentage from beyond the three-point arc. That’s a dangerous combination for any opponent.
Nebraska to Reach Sweet 16 (+500)
I am absolutely buying into the hype for Nebraska, but only because of the outstanding odds if they can find a way to win their two games. That’s no easy task, but the Cornhuskers have a pair of solid 3-point shooters that can carry them. In addition, if I’m not asking Houston — the region’s one-seed — to go far, I have no problem knocking them out early.
Baylor to Reach Elite 8 (+380)
It’s not easy to roll one tournament’s success into the next, and Baylor found that out the hard way over the last few years. The Bears won the tournament in 2021 but haven’t reached the Sweet 16 since. I love the idea of buying in here for a resurgence, where a hot streak can carry them even farther.
7 Texas vs. 10 Colorado State (+124)
I write a lot about name value — I’ve already mentioned it a few times in this column — but Texas is the perfect example of how it works against a team. The Longhorns were a 2-seed last year and went as far as the Elite 8 — no small task — but enter this year as a 7-seed. They are fairly large favorites for a 7-10 matchup, but that’s the point. The value is squarely with Colorado State.
5 Gonzaga vs. McNeese State (+225)
I spent a lot of time staring at the potential second-round matchup between Gonzaga and Kansas, and that’s exactly why I wanted to make a pick that impacted at least one of them. It seems like too obvious of a route to ask both to win their first games and meet over the weekend, and the odds confirmed my suspicion. Despite the histories for these teams, the odds weren’t as lopsided as other matchups. In addition, McNeese State is the typical shoot-first team that we often see pull off early-round ‘upsets.’ 12-seeds used to be the popular pick for first-round wins, but that has trailed off lately. I’m ready to jump back into that trend.
Other Picks
Simply based on the odds and potential matchups — i.e. if a top-seed falls and opens the door for another team to advance deeper than many expect — here are some other teams and picks I like:
14 Morehead State to beat Illinois (+525)
A 12-Seed WILL Reach Elite Eight (+650)
Purdue to win Championship (+700)
Kentucky to reach Final Four (+700)
Kentucky to reach Championship (+1000)
A 13-Seed WILL Reach Elite Eight (+1000)
Kentucky to win Championship (+2200)
Final Thoughts
I feel like this is the case every year with the tournament, but I just can’t see how we can ask the chalk to dominate through to the end. Specifically, are we really going to see a repeat champion? In this bracket? With how common ‘upsets’ are? I can’t ask for that. But we also know that the top teams are seeded appropriately and that there usually aren’t too many surprises in the Final Four — one team, maybe, but it’s not often that we get two or three head-scratchers.
The difference this year is that I normally shy away from name value but, instead, am embracing it here. Kentucky is a good example where, if it were a one-seed or even a two-seed — which, in reality, is the difference in just a few teams over the entirety of the nation — wouldn’t it be getting much more attention? That’s what we’re seeing with UNC, as it’s a name value team with a top-seed placement.
The bottom line is that each year needs its own approach, and I have taken on the following: the combination of Purdue responding well from last year’s embarrassment and some of the formerly successful programs and coaches putting together deep runs.
Good luck!