It wasn’t easy.
The waiting. The spreadsheet updates. The decisions.
We saw something different in 2017. It wasn’t the ridiculous amount of home runs or the open-and-closed – yet still open – debate of what exactly is happening to the baseballs. It was the effort put forth by specific clubs.
It never made sense for a baseball team to lose games on purpose. Basketball? Maybe. Football? Yes. But, baseball is different sport. A deeper sport. Getting the first pick in the draft might have almost no impact on the following season. It may not ever have an impact on any season.
That changed when the Chicago Cubs wisely built from within and won a World Series. It was solidified when the Houston Astros wisely built from within and won a World Series.
We live in a copycat sports world, and it is now more apparent than ever that smart decisions – not big checkbooks – lead to championships. Unfortunately, to the general fan of the sport, this has a ripple effect.
Parity is nonexistent. There are those who are trying to compete and those who are trying to rebuild. Few exist in between.
The intrigue, however, with this new state of the game is that fewer barriers exist that used to prevent teams sliding from one category to the other. There is no longer mediocrity in the way of a rise. Teams explode or they crumble.
Looking back to last year’s predictions and results, I’m proud to have picked seven-of-the-twelve playoff bound participants; namely the Rockies and Yankees. Prior to last season, the consensus was that the Rockies will find it difficult to make strides in a competitive NL West and a brutal ballpark, while the Yankees were still “a year away from contending.”
The other important factor to teams rising so swiftly is the immediate drop-off that many experience when age – health – competition, and regression become too big of a burden. This was where the Mets and Rangers became two of my favorite ‘sell-now’ teams in 2017, while I wasn’t ready to buy into the Cardinals, just yet – Spoiler alert: I am now.
This brief trip down memory lane was taken to serve our needs in the present, as we can identify franchises in similar positions to last year’s ‘sleepers’ – whose bandwagon filled up quite quickly, after the fact. In fact, the latter gives us the perfect roller coaster that we like to ride en route to a profitable sports portfolio.
Below are my predictions for the 2018 Major League Baseball Season. The green highlight indicates a season-long over/under win total pick. Not every team received a write-up, as I tried to focus on those who had noteworthy storylines, offseasons, or statistics.
American League Projected Standings
New York Yankees – Let’s start with the elephant in the room. The New York Yankees are built to win. They are as deep as any – especially if we factor in the Minor League system – have power for ages, and feature a lethal back-end of the bullpen. Why, then, will they barely crack 90 wins? Quite frankly, the foundation upon which much of a high-end projection rests for New York is shaky. Greg Bird is already hurt, and Giancarlo Stanton is a prime candidate to follow – in eight seasons, he has played fewer than 125 games five times. The rotation also features a possibly over-extended Luis Severino, a possibly-injured Masahiro Tanaka, a possibly-finished CC Sabathia, a sophomore in Jordan Montgomery, and anywhere from an ace to an injury in Sonny Gray. The Yankees have holes, they are just fortunate enough to be able to plug them with depth.
Boston Red Sox – The Boston Red Sox fall out of the playoff picture for similar reasons as to why the Yankees are a risk. That is, Boston is a flawed club, but, unlike its rival, does not have the depth to keep it afloat. After Chris Sale, even the former top-pick of David Price is a tad on the uncomfortable side. The offense gets a major boost from J.D. Martinez, but has red flags in the likes of Jackie Bradley, Jr., Hanley Ramirez, Eduardo Nunez, Christian Vazquez, the aging Hanley Ramirez and the never-ending saga at first base.
Toronto Blue Jays – Supplanting the Red Sox as the Yankees’ top competitor is the first of our surprise teams for 2018. The Toronto Blue Jays perfectly fit the mold of “will be contending soon,” which, to me, translates to “will be contending now.” The reason is simple: once the Blue Jays establish that they are not falling out of the playoff race – this is made more easy with the addition of the second Wild Card in recent years – the organization will be asked to bring in the cavalry to finish the season with all-hands-on-deck. The cavalry just-so-happens to be one of the most top-heavy groups of prospects, headlined by Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. and Bo Bichette. Neither are expected to play in Toronto, this season, but the Blue Jays are also not expected to compete. That will change soon, as a healthy duo of Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman will help carry Toronto to a playoff berth.
Baltimore Orioles – The Baltimore Orioles might be the most interesting team of 2018. Certainly, things can change, but we would be hard-pressed to expect a division title from a team whose pitching staff features Andrew Cashner in a prominent role. But, a slow start to the year would not be the worst outcome for Baltimore, as the looming free agency of Manny Machado makes the team primed to be ‘sellers’ at the Trade Deadline. Help won’t be arriving in 2018 – it will be departing – but Baltimore’s manager tends to squeeze a few more wins out of the club than the peripherals suggest. With that, the Orioles won’t collapse.
Tampa Bay Rays – If we were to look at the Tampa Bay Rays in a vacuum, it would be blatantly clear that the franchise is looking ahead to future years without a real desire to compete in 2018. But, why should this be the case? Tampa Bay finished last season only two games below .500 and has Major League-ready talent waiting in the Minor Leagues. The Rays could have been a surprise. That was, until they traded away Jake Odorizzi and acquired a handful of veterans to block their young assets. It appears as if Tampa Bay is tapping out of a fight before it began when, really, it was as justified as any to be present. Trading Chris Archer in a few months will be the final message that the team is playing for the future.
Cleveland Indians – I’m always hesitant to pick “chalk” in any setting, but the Cleveland Indians are so clearly dominant on one side of the ball that it makes it nearly impossible for the team to miss the playoffs. Simply put, when a starting rotation and bullpen are as suffocating as Cleveland’s, opponents cannot survive long enough to out-hit the Indians’ lineup. What makes Cleveland even more impressive is that its pitching depth is so complete that injuries should not derail this playoff-bound club.
Chicago White Sox – The Chicago White Sox will either be my Minnesota Twins from two years ago or my New York Yankees from last year. That is, the consensus for both was that it is “too early” for them to make a serious run. For the Twins, the consensus was right, as it took an extra year for everything to come together for a playoff berth. For the Yankees, they blossomed quickly, and my aggressiveness in picking them for a playoff spot was rewarded. The White Sox mirror the Yankees of last year and the Astros and Cubs of the past few years. Not only are they undervalued at the Major League level, but the prospects they have on-call are arguably ready, today. Therein lies the difference between a great farm system and a game-changing one, as Chicago will use its role as the underdog to its advantage long enough to prove to the organization that 2018 is the year that cannot be wasted.
Minnesota Twins – The Minnesota Twins have been a thorn in my side over the past few seasons. I predicted a big output from the team two years ago, only to witness one of the worst records of the last decade. It appeared I was a year too early, as the Twins then went on to twist-the-knife by vaulting to a playoff berth. This variation in results is tied directly to the play of the man who acted as the team’s top prospect for years, Byron Buxton. Buxton has been a relative disappointment for most of his career with Minnesota, yet flashes such brilliance that his star refuses to dwindle. As a result, he quietly goes on hot streaks that bring his numbers back to respectability, while carrying his team to wins. His defense has never been in question, and it is why the franchise has stuck with his bat for this long. Amazingly, now that he appears ready to take the proverbial next step, he and his team will be met with resistance from the class of the division in Cleveland and the upstart White Sox. Minnesota made strides to bolster its pitching staff, but still lacks a true ‘ace’ with Ervin Santana on the disabled list.
Kansas City Royals – I was ready to see a return to glory for a tough Kansas City Royals team in 2017 and, while they surpassed their projected win total for the year, they never made a real push for the playoffs. The team might have brought back its third baseman for one more year – obviously, the free agent market had a lot to do with this re-signing – but the offense is not noticeably better than last year’s, nor is the starting pitching any more reliable.
Los Angeles Angels – The Los Angeles Angels made arguably the biggest splash of the offseason when signing Japanese phenom Shohei Ohtani. But, no, this is not the reason why I am projecting them to win the American League West. I am projecting a division title for the Angels because, for arguably the first time in the Mike Trout era, the team is showing an aggressive commitment to winning. Ohtani might have been the most publicized addition, but Justin Upton and Zack Cozart should not fly under-the-radar, while Kevin Maitan (many years away) is another indication that the Angels are on the rise. The organization can ill afford to waste more of Mike Trout’s prime years, and help will be on the way, if needed.
Houston Astros – With all due respect to the defending World Champions, blindly penciling in another trip to the postseason is a slap-in-the-face to the trends. Of the last seventeen teams to win the World Series, only seven made the playoffs the following year. The Houston Astros are talented, deep, and added another starting pitcher that would headline a handful of other staffs throughout the league. Still, they face a sneaky high level of competition from an improved division – which was a complete non-factor in 2017. Houston is the squad that best threatens to upset my predictions, but they are the odd-team-out weighed down by history in an improved American League.