I think I went a little overboard.
I love baseball. And I love projections. And predictions. And any other variant of the same word used for different purposes.
I also love writing, and the days when I get to write about my predictions for a baseball team are among my favorite.
For this reason, I had to keep going. I wrote about every team in league – that part isn’t new – but also looked into a few MVP and Cy Young candidates I like. And I gave twelve over/under win total picks for the season. Twelve.
I definitely went overboard.
I even wrote an introduction that was twice as long as the one you are now reading. I cut it. Because the story is about to be told, and I don’t want to get lost in trying to tell it ahead of time. Really, over the next six months, there are probably more storylines that we can’t see than the ones we can. But, we do have a few worth mentioning.
This offseason was intense. Certainly, it took a long time to develop but, throughout February and March, there were major signings everywhere, even if the player who signed was merely renewing a contract by extending it. These signings have value, in that they both eliminate distractions and set the tone for the next few years. Of course, we need to be careful to not overreact to any one particular addition – i.e. how much of an immediate impact will Manny Machado make to the Padres? – but we have certainly seen a flurry of activity that can reshape both a team and its perception. And we always care about the latter.
We also had another year in which it became obvious that certain teams simply do not care about winning games. They want to ‘rebuild.’ And, it caught me by surprise when I realized I did not pick a single team to loss 100 games, last year. When the dust settled, there were three teams with at least 98 losses in the same division. Two had more than 100.
We can easily see some of the storylines. But, we won’t exactly know the rest. Not right now, anyway.
The best we can do is project.
Below are my predictions for the 2019 Major League Baseball Season. The green highlight indicates a season-long over/under win total pick. All other picks – MVP, Cy Young, American League pennant, etc. – can be found at the bottom of the article.
American League Projected Standings
American League East
New York Yankees – Outside of the Oakland Athletics’ pioneering use of ‘moneyball,’ the New York Yankees might have been the quietest influence to the sabermetrics movement, and it started long before anyone realized it was happening. Throughout the early 2000’s, when New York was paying for sluggers that could deliver home runs, they would routinely make it to the playoffs, only to fall short of title – with one exception, of course. This is, however, the ideal makeup of many of the teams we see today – power, big wins, but the risk of a postseason series loss. There are countless reasons as to why this happens and why organizations actually like this approach – psychology is at the forefront of it – but the end result is that the Yankees’ method works. At least, in the regular season. The team may not even be as good as last year’s version – which many people have argued was the worst 100-win squad in history – but it will be right around that magic three-digit number, yet again.
Boston Red Sox (Wild Card Berth) – There is no denying just how good the Boston Red Sox are, but it is dangerous to move into an encore year following a World Series title with similar expectations without just case. By doing so, and by questioning the flaws, we can see a few areas where regression can hit. David Price produced nice numbers by the end of the year, but it wasn’t without its early struggles. Chris Sale was utterly dominant for most of the year, but threw a total of 17 innings in August and September. Boston will likely need both to stay at their peaks if another division title is in the works. Most importantly, the American League East is simply too brutal to expect another runaway winner. Can it happen? Of course. But it’s easy to see a scenario in which both the Yankees and Red Sox finish with the two best records in the league. Because of that, I am scaling down my expectations.
Tampa Bay Rays – The Tampa Bay Rays were one of the most surprising teams of 2018, but it’s easy to see why, in hindsight. Tampa Bay, as an organization, has a history of figuring out ways to field a winning team without spending a lot of money. The fact that they announced they would forego traditional starting pitching for a ‘bullpen day’ aligns with their experimental nature. As does the fact that it worked. The only problem? It worked well enough to be copied, and then the Rays were out-executed. Specifically by the Oakland Athletics. By comparison, Tampa Bay’s 90 wins were impressive, but not extraordinary. The Rays now enter 2019 with a somewhat balanced attack, as they added Charlie Morton to the rotation, but still plan to piece together some games via the bullpen. Considering the element of surprise is now lost and the fact that Tampa Bay had to pivot slightly from their ‘all-in’ plans that appeared to be forming, the Rays won’t be able to string together a second-consecutive 90-win season. Not yet, anyway.
Toronto Blue Jays – I’m one to be overaggressive in my projections, and it occasionally leads me to be a year too early on a specific team or player. This year’s case study will be in the Toronto Blue Jays, as I was expecting a better start to 2018 for them, followed by a wave of minor league talent pushing them into respectability. It failed miserably, and we are now faced with the decision of the encore. As of now, it is clear that potential superstar Vlad Guerrero, Jr. will not be part of the Opening Day roster, but it would be stunning if he isn’t with the club by the end of April. The question is, will that be enough? Probably not. At least, not for a playoff push. I would expect the second half of Toronto’s season to be better than the first, but the division will likely bury the Blue Jays before they can recover.
Baltimore Orioles – I’m about to write something profoundly not profound, but I don’t think many realize just how terrible the Baltimore Orioles were in 2018. Certainly, we all knew they were bad, but they finished the year with 47 wins. They couldn’t even reach 50. Fifty. By comparison, 13 NBA teams won 47 games in the 2017-2018 season. They play one more than half the games of an MLB schedule. Either way, the baseline is so embarrassingly low that it is almost impossible for it to be reached again. In addition, the amount of runs scored versus allowed suggests that the team should have won 55 games instead of 47. In the grand scheme, this is a useless increase. But, if we’re trying to find value, we just did.
American League Central
Minnesota Twins – The Minnesota Twins are going to be my darlings in 2019. They have a pitching staff that is, if nothing else, intriguing, and it is headlined by a potential Cy Young winner in Jose Berrios. And that’s just the start. Now imagine if Michael Pineda returns to his strikeout-machine form and stays healthy. Imagine if Jake Odorizzi takes just a small step forward. Now add those two to Kyle Gibson coming off a career-year and the aforementioned Berrios and we have a quietly dangerous staff. Admittedly, I don’t love the depth of it, and Pineda could easily be a ‘bust,’ but the Twins have room to grow and the potential to do so. Moving to the offense, the lineup could be extremely potent, has a former superstar-in-the-making in Byron Buxton, and acquired veterans that could help the team win now. And it should. As I continue to write, when I miss on a team, it’s usually because I’m too early. This was the case with the Twins in the past. Multiple times. Now, they take home the American League Central.
Cleveland Indians – I get a little concerned whenever a team that has had recent success remains relatively quiet, and the Cleveland Indians appear to fit this mold. What makes me more worried about Cleveland is that we have heard more negative news or hopeful expectations than positive momentum. Francisco Lindor is injured, and his absence will be felt early – especially with the team’s first twelve games being played in the cold-weather locations of either Minnesota, Detroit, or Cleveland. And the general boost the Indians appear to be receiving comes from the hopes that Trevor Bauer takes the proverbial next step in his development toward a top-of-the-rotation ace – and does it for 200 innings. Really, it appears that Cleveland has more holes than can be seen at first glance, and it did not exactly make strides in filling them.
Chicago White Sox – whSometimes, I have no particular order in which I write my predictions. Other times, I simply can’t nail down what to expect. The latter is true for the Chicago White Sox. Like the Twins and Blue Jays of the past, I have been eagerly awaiting Chicago’s emergence as a contender with its wealth of young talent. But, it hasn’t happened. And it doesn’t seem like it will, just yet. The good news for the White Sox is that Eloy Jimenez was signed to a long-term deal and will start with the Major League team. The bad news is that Chicago has a long way to go before it can get back in the playoff mix. It allowed a whopping 848 runs, last year and, while the pitching staff should be improved, it likely won’t have all of its best arms ready until next year.
Kansas City Royals – It’s difficult to shake a team’s perception, but it gets a little cloudier when said team has been on both ends of the extreme. The Kansas City Royals were an absolute disaster for a decade, only to win the World Series. But, it wasn’t just the championship that is noteworthy, as the Royals won the American League pennant in consecutive seasons. It’s no easy feat. They have since returned to the depths of the league and had a pitiful, 100-loss season in 2018. The problem with Kansas City is that the pedigree to surprise is there, but it looks like the talent isn’t. Those championship-caliber teams are starting to drift further away from what we will see on the field in 2019, and we can no longer look to them as an indication that the Royals can find a way to win despite their flaws.
Detroit Tigers – Is it too easy to say that the Detroit Tigers can lose 100 games, this year? Maybe. But I can’t seen an avenue in which it isn’t a distinct possibility. And the reasoning is simple. The Tigers have torn themselves down to the foundation, but still have a few talented pieces left. The most noteworthy is Nick Castellanos, who will enter the final year of his contract. At 27 and hitting his stride, Castellanos would be an ideal trade chip for a team competing for a championship, this year. In other words, one of the Tigers’ best players will probably be gone before August. As will the chance at a winning season.
American League West
Houston Astros – Whenever I find myself leaning toward “chalk,” I take a step back and see if there are other options. Certainly, in the American League West, it’s possible that a team other than the Houston Astros emerges victorious, but it isn’t probable. Even if Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole both regress – which is obviously reasonable – the team is complete enough to withstand a dip in production. This is also because the lineup is bursting with talent at varying stages of development – from Alex Bregman continuing to emerge as a star to Michael Brantley as another veteran bat. There are also multiple viable candidates for the American League’s Most Valuable Player on the Astros’ roster, and I personally expect George Springer – as always, assuming he is healthy – to contend for such an honor.
Los Angeles Angels – Last year, I wrote about the Angels as a potential division winner projected to get 86 wins. They fell short of both predictions, but there were bright spots. Most notably, the team appeared to finally be aggressively improving in hopes to not waste Mike Trout’s years. This was highlighted by the signing of Shohei Ohtani, who proved to be an impact player both at the plate and on the mound. That was, until he was shut down due to an injury. And said injury is going to carry into 2019 and take away any contributions Ohtani would have had on the mound. The bright spot, however, is that the American League is so top-heavy that the second Wild Card berth is actually an open competition. And, while scouring the league for possible suitors – the White Sox, Rays, and Athletics were choices I continued to debate – the Angels kept appearing as a likely under-the-radar option. Their pitching rotation is worrisome and I am personally not a fan of the manager – who featured a losing record through four seasons after taking a team that had three consecutive winning years – but the best player on the planet is in Los Angeles now and for the next decade. With all the potential flaws factored in, the over/under win total is rather high for the American League, and I suspect it is because the Angels are an undervalued investment. Therefore, I am buying.
Oakland Athletics – The Oakland Athletics and Tampa Bay Rays mirror each other so well that it’s downright scary. In fact, to give a look behind-the-scenes, I wrote my blurbs for both teams on the same day one-after-the-other. Both organizations play in a top-heavy division – at least, lately – and keep a modest payroll. But, unlike other organizations that appear to be in a perpetual ‘rebuild mode’ – think of teams like the Tigers, Padres, and Reds at various times over the last decade – the Athletics and Rays rarely stay out-of-contention for too long before putting together a big season. It happened in 2018 for both teams. The twist, however, is that, although the Rays typically get the credit for bringing the idea of an ‘opener’ to the forefront of the baseball world – at least, that’s my personal take on it; and I could be wrong – the Athletics truly mastered it in a short timespan. Oakland won 97 games, last year. 97. What’s more amazing is that the Pythagorean win total for the Athletics – if you care about this, and I do – was 95 wins. So, the team only outperformed its numbers by a small margin. This suggests it can return right back to form in 2019. Not so fast. If we’re only judging the Athletics’ rotation on the players we expect to pitch every fifth day, it carries a large weight of concern with it. In addition, the lineup will need players like Ramon Laureano to carry their success into another season, while looking for Robbie Grossman and Jurickson Profar to deliver for a new team. Oakland won’t collapse, but the fact that their over/under win total is already below that of the Rays is an indication that a big drop in production is looming.
Seattle Mariners – The Seattle Mariners are an interesting squad. It’s difficult to tell if they are trying to compete or rebuild or do both at the same time. Why? They traded away James Paxton and Robinson Cano – which suggest they have entered ‘rebuild mode’ – but also have Felix Hernandez, Mike Leake, and, at the time of this writing, Wade LeBlanc in the projected rotation. I understand the desire to keep trying with Hernandez, but all three pitchers I just named are at least 31 years old. They aren’t in the team’s future. The same can be said about some of the pieces acquired by Seattle for its lineup. Edwin Encarnacion is clearly a stop-gap, while Jay Bruce is an expiring contract. The signs continue to point to a ‘rebuild,’ but there is one curious number that remains important – last year’s win total. The Mariners were an 89-win team in 2018. The only explanation for their offseason is that their moves were simply too enticing to ignore – Seattle received a top pitching prospect in the Paxton trade, while it was able to shed Cano’s massive contract – but the franchise looks like it just forced its hand into the future in spite of the potential it had in the present day.
Texas Rangers – I keep looking at the teams pushing for a truly losing season and questioning if any are going to surprise and compete for a Wild Card Berth. Unfortunately, the more I see, the more I am convinced that certain teams are building around the idea of stockpiling high draft picks to help for the future. The Texas Rangers are yet another example of this. The team is built to score – surely aided by the hitter-friendly ballpark – but it gives up runs at a staggering rate – at least 750 in four-of-the-last-five seasons. With little on the verge of changing, we should see another losing season in Texas.