The first two weeks of any National Football League season follow a surprisingly consistent trend. The year opens with question marks strewn throughout each game and franchise and, after sixty minutes of football are completed, immediate answers are given.
The answers are, of course, wrong.
By comparison to other sports, a sixteen-game season is a small sample size. We see anomalies all the time. Because we are conditioned to believe what happens over the course of many months, we ignore the fact that it was built off only sixteen instances.
The same is true for the reactions that follow Opening Week.
Most football fans cast aside nearly everything that happens in the preseason. Often times, the on-field action has a negative effect on the viewer, as it constantly gives false positives and negatives. We file our observations in the metaphorical trash to be emptied later.
As soon as real games are played by the best eleven men suited for the job on one given play after another, we replace what we thought with what we think. We assign answers based on the present tense.
We, as football fans, incorrectly shift our mindset based on the outcome of only one game.
At least, the spread does.
There is likely no other week during the season where spreads, as a whole, will move as much as they do during the days leading up to Week 2’s set of games. Over-reaction and instant change-of-heart is everywhere, and we must not fall victim to the same fate.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2016 Season: 5-3 (Last Week: 5-3)
(2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2)
All Picks Against Spread – 2016 Season: 9-7 (Last Week: 9-7)
(2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4)
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
As if Thursday Night Football needed more drama than the Jets facing their former head coach – who conveniently eliminated them from playoff contention to end the 2015 season – New York and Buffalo will meet after painful losses to open the new season.
In what will quickly become a running theme throughout our Week 2 NFL picks column, the quick change of Thursday night’s spread sounds numerous alarms.