It’s honestly my favorite week of the year.
Nothing says “perception” more than overreaction. And nothing says “overreaction” like the fallout of Opening Day.
I love it. I love reading about fans freaking out that their team is doomed. I love reading about the teams that played so well that beat writers suddenly are reversing course. I love seeing one game erase an entire offseason of preparation.
Because we never do that.
One of my strictest rules is to not flip an opinion of a team because of a small sample size. In a 16-game season, a few weeks is enough to determine if a team is likely to be good or bad for the remainder of the year, but one week is not “a few weeks.” It’s the beginning of a sample, and it’s one that can change at a moment’s notice. More accurately, it can change based on the matchup.
For nearly every game we watched in Week 1, we have to ask ourselves if a team is good because of its opponent or its own level of success — and vice versa. Are the Baltimore Ravens, again, going to run away with the division or are the Cleveland Browns, again, going to be a complete disaster? Are the Buffalo Bills, again, headed to the playoffs, or are the New York Jets, again, headed toward another coaching change? We can do this everywhere.
And we will. We will question so much of Week 1 that we might as well have not even watched. That’s the point!
We aren’t here to be swayed by what we saw.
We are here to take advantage of those who were.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2020 Season: 6-1 (Last Week: 6-1)
(2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (6-Year Total: 356-297-18)
All Picks Against Spread – 2020 Season: 10-6 (Last Week: 10-6)
(2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (6-Year Total: 831-722-49)
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
That wasn’t pretty.
The Cleveland Browns were last year’s ‘hot pick.’ The team that made all the ‘right moves’ in the offseason. The team ready to take the next step. The team that was unlike any of its other prior iterations.
The team that, exactly like so many prior iterations, failed.
Cleveland was a trainwreck in 2019. Quarterback Baker Mayfield couldn’t hit his stride and losses piled up so heavily that even with a three-game winning streak, the Browns never held a winning record in 2019.
That’s fine. Good for us, actually, as we loved ‘selling’ the Browns in 2019. But, the team was then supposed to turn the page and turn the corner. 2020 would be different.
Cleveland opened the new season by scoring the fewest points of any team in Week 1.
The Browns also suffered the biggest loss of the week.
So much for turning the page.
The Cincinnati Bengals believed they were turning the page after four consecutive losing seasons by selecting quarterback Joe Burrow with the first overall pick in last year’s Draft. How did Burrow do in his debut? A three-point loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.
That wasn’t pretty.