It isn’t getting any easier.
I remember writing about uncertainty for this 2020 season, but I can honestly admit that we weren’t expecting everything to be certain. We weren’t expecting all the answers. Just that we would eventually get them.
That simply isn’t the case.
We keep asking questions that spiral into other questions, and that’s before we factor in the shuffling of the schedule. Usually, it takes a few weeks to get a true read on a team, but I’m not sure if we’re even close with roughly half the league.
Are the Carolina Panthers good?
Are the New York Jets and New York Giants really going to compete for the first pick of the 2021 NFL Draft?
Are the Buffalo Bills the best team in the AFC?
It’s amazing because we had absolutely nothing to use to help make these determinations as of a month ago. Now, we’re not only one-quarter into the season, but we’re one quarter through each team’s resume. That is, if the entire league can get back on the field.
In the meantime, the best we can do is try to separate the known from the unknown.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2020 Season: 14-10-1 (Last Week: 2-3-1)
(2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (6-Year Total: 356-297-18)
All Picks Against Spread – 2020 Season: 29-33-1 (Last Week: 4-10-1)
(2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (6-Year Total: 831-722-49)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears
Last week, I wrote about the ‘magic’ that surrounds Chicago Bears quarterback Nick Foles. I might have used the term incorrectly.
Foles, himself, is not ‘magical.’ He doesn’t pull rabbits out of hats or perform awe-inspiring acts on the football field. Instead, he combines the two. That’s what forms the ‘magic.’
One of the reasons why I have refused to believe in Foles for so long is because he is largely average in an average setting. As a starting quarterback in regular season games, he’s 26-23. But, in the crucial games that concluded the 2018 season and the playoffs, he was extraordinary — 2-1 to close the year and then obviously 3-0 in the postseason.
The ‘magic’ appears when Foles needs it most. Like a nationally-televised game after an incredibly lackluster and disappointing performance. It also helps that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were thoroughly beaten in the first half of their most recent game, only to be handed new opportunities where they could vault back into the lead. If the Chargers could close out a game — a problem we are seeing more-and-more from teams around-the-league — then we would be looking at the 2-2 Buccaneers visiting the 3-1 Bears. Instead, the teams look balanced.
Tampa Bay’s best feature is a defense that ranks fourth in the league in yards allowed, but those numbers are extremely skewed by a game against the hapless Broncos and their division foes in the Saints. In their two other games, the Buccaneers have allowed 751 yards of offense.
Chicago ranks eighth in yards allowed, seventh in points allowed, and it actually gave up fewer yards in last week’s loss to the Colts than any of its three prior opponents — which all resulted in wins. The problem was the Bears’ offense.
Playing at home on a short week after a complete dud offensively should allow Chicago to get back into the right rhythm, especially against a feast-or-famine Buccaneers defense.
The Bears win a close game by a single point and beat the spread.
Confidence Pick: Chicago Bears (+3.5)
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
I continue to be amazed by the Atlanta Falcons.