I don’t hide my rooting interests. Whether I’m watching a game with my favorite team or I’m following a storyline, I’m as much a fan as I am an analyst and writer. I never let it get in the way of what I predict will happen, but I certainly root for certain outcomes.
When it comes to football picks, as a whole, I root for ‘upsets.’ Not only are they fun to watch — think about those final drives in a close game when the unthinkable is on the verge of happening — but they are important for the industry. If favorites win and win easily, then it takes away the edge from those of us who know anything can happen.
This year, I haven’t been rooting for as many ‘upsets.’ Not because I don’t want them to happen — I already established why I do — but because they haven’t appeared as potential ‘upsets’ before the game. In other words, when the setup is so one-sided that even I have to follow the obvious route, it’s not good for the industry if that fails.
I’m usually the last to convert. If I move, there had better be a good reason.
Thankfully, in Week 5, there was. The Arizona Cardinals were supposed to pummel the New York Jets, and they did. The Los Angeles Rams were supposed to pummel the Washington Football Team, and they did. The Houston Texans were supposed to pummel the Jacksonville Jaguars, and they did.
These are good outcomes because they help confirm that we are looking at a more straightforward year than we have in the past. Do I like that? Not at all, as evidenced by how few confidence picks I had in Week 5, as well as how many favorites I set as confidence picks. Specifically, despite listing three teams that “were supposed to” win big, and picking all three against-the-spread, I didn’t set a single one as a confidence pick.
After all, this is the nature of the game. Even if it looks easy, we have to exercise caution. Carefully mitigating risk will always be crucial, even if the opportunities are more scarce than we would like to see on a weekly basis.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2020 Season: 15-14-1 (Last Week: 1-4)
(2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (6-Year Total: 356-297-18)
All Picks Against Spread – 2020 Season: 37-39-1 (Last Week: 8-6)
(2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (6-Year Total: 831-722-49)
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Well, well, well. Look at which game just became must-watch television.
The Houston Texans did it. They finally moved on from head coach Bill O’Brien and, in what should be the least surprising outcome, won their first game without him. Shame on me for not going ‘all-in’ with Houston as a confidence pick, last week.
The same could be said about the Tennessee Titans. They were the perfect team to pull off the ‘upset’ in Week 5, as the common belief was that the long layoff and after-effects of so many positive coronavirus cases would be a problem for the team. The only “problem” was that the spread was never really announced and there were too many unknowns to dive in fully. Again, shame on me.
There is good news. And it’s in the form of the phrase that I might-as-well try to copyright at this point: we expected this to happen.
We expected the Titans to beat the Bills. We expected the Texans to beat the Jaguars.
And consequently, we expected to see