We are officially about to enter the second-half of the season, and we are starting to see a shift in how the league reacts to certain numbers. Namely, not all ‘traps’ are going to hit.
That won’t deter us.
Because the one thing that hasn’t evaporated is value, and the job is simply to find it.
And, as an added bonus, many of the spreads are telling the right story. We’re simply seeing the same pattern that appears every year: every so often, the games go against us.
That’s never the right time to move against the system, and we will especially look to carry forward what we did in the first half of the season and apply it to the second.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or Fanatics Sportsbook (formerly PointsBet). All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2026 Season: 31-20-1 (Last Week: 2-4)
(2024 Season: 65-57) (2023 Season: 63-61-4) (2022 Season: 54-54-5) (2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (2025 Season: 63-53-1) (12-Year Total: 709-614-31)
All Picks Against Spread – 2026 Season: 64-55-2 (Last Week: 5-9)
(2024 Season: 148-136-1) (2023 Season: 142-135-8) (2022 Season: 143-132-9) (2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (2025 Season: 151-133-1) (12-Year Total: 1705-1512-77)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens
Let’s be clear about a few different elements of the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Baltimore Ravens.
The first is that the Ravens will not only be without starting quarterback Lamar Jackson, but they also lost their backup and, just prior to this writing, traded for Jacoby Brissett. This is twice this season that Jackson will miss an extended period of time, and the timing is clearly unfortunate since he had just returned and the Ravens are now trying to snap a three-game losing streak.
Then we have the Jaguars. They sit in the