There’s always something to take away from losing weeks, but this one is as clear as ever.
According to most places, this was one of the biggest winning weeks for favorites in years, and 14-out-of-15 favorites won their games outright.
We always want to win.
We will accept losses on weeks like that one.
Why? Because we know the value truly lies on the other side of the matchup, with the underdogs. And, the more the underdogs fail in a given week (especially to the point that it is noteworthy), the more value they gain.
It will not be a surprise to see where we direct our attention this week.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or Fanatics Sportsbook (formerly PointsBet). All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2026 Season: 33-24-1 (Last Week: 2-4)
(2024 Season: 65-57) (2023 Season: 63-61-4) (2022 Season: 54-54-5) (2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (2025 Season: 63-53-1) (12-Year Total: 709-614-31)
All Picks Against Spread – 2026 Season: 69-65-2 (Last Week: 5-10)
(2024 Season: 148-136-1) (2023 Season: 142-135-8) (2022 Season: 143-132-9) (2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (2025 Season: 151-133-1) (12-Year Total: 1705-1512-77)
Washington Commanders at New York Giants
I always write about timing in the National Football League, but it’s often in the context of when a team is about to run into an unfortunate matchup. Sometimes, it’s about where we are in the calendar and how much — or little — time a squad has to make a move in the playoff picture.
That’s really the focus of the game between the Washington Commanders and New York Giants. New York has excelled through adversity to the tune of a 5-2-1 record so far, won back-to-back games, and can essentially bury another team in the division race with a win this week.
That other team? The Commanders, who