Sunday features our last multi-game slate of the 2016 NFL season and, with it, our final game-by-game analysis for months. Thankfully, there appears to be no shortage of offensive firepower between the four teams in play. Of course, this requires taking a risk when selecting a defensive unit to use, but it is an unavoidable consequence of the squads presented to us.
With so many playmakers taking the field on such a small slate, the range-of-outcomes is proportionally large. However, the basement projections for not only the players, but the teams’ expected outputs, are so high that we can actually pinpoint a fitting game flow for each.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Conference Championship NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take: The NFC Championship Game could not be easier to sell to a fantasy football owner; it is a matchup featuring two of the hottest, arguably best offenses in the league against defensive units that are simply weak. We must expect something along the lines of what we saw between Green Bay and Dallas, last week. Both Atlanta and Green Bay should be able to score at will, which puts anyone and everyone who is healthy squarely in-play. Unfortunately, as easy as it is to buy into the game, itself, it is that difficult to find healthy players to use on Sunday. For the Falcons, both Julio Jones and Taylor Gabriel are ‘questionable’ and would be playing at less than 100 percent. Jones is always a trustworthy option, but his toe injury and threat of Green Bay’s defense focusing solely on Jones makes him a bit more of a risk on Sunday than usual. Obviously, if his health status begins to improve as the week progresses, Jones can slide up the list of targets. With that, the other players to consider from Atlanta are the healthy and consistent performers of Matt Ryan, Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, and, depending on the status of Jones and Gabriel, Mohamed Sanu. Somehow, the Packers actually managed to out-duel Atlanta in terms of injuries. Jordy Nelson is still not expected to be ready to play, Devante Adams is ‘questionable,’ and ‘sleeper’ candidate Geronimo Allison is dealing with a hamstring injury. While it is unclear as to how everything well play out, Green Bay has no shortage of weapons. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is the obvious and undeniable play, but Randall Cobb, Jared Cook, and Ty Montgomery all make for strong options as they figure to be heavily involved in the gameplan. If any two of the three aforementioned injured receivers are out, Jeff Janis would slide into a top-three receiver position and could make for a nice cheap ‘sleeper’ option.