If we thought last week involved some creative shuffling in the schedule, then Week 5 stepped up and took the lead in that category. It appears as if the dust has settled, however, and we have 14 games ahead of us — not including Thursday Night Football — from which we can find our fantasy gems.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 5 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Every week I try to tell myself that the Falcons cannot be this bad, but it may be time to start accepting that they simply are bad — especially defensively. The Panthers also continue to impress considering how low most people have been on them all year. It may not feel right, but the Panthers probably win this game, and it may be a fairly high-scoring game as well.
Targets: All offensive players on both teams
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Mike Davis and Olamide Zaccheaus (if Julio Jones is out)
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I can’t help but think that everyone will be expecting the Atlanta Falcons to suddenly remember how to win a football game, but I’m not so sure it happens. The reality, however, is that I also don’t believe in the Carolina Panthers. Still, the Falcons’ defense has been so dreadful — allowing the second-most yards-per-game — that we can’t look away from any offensive talent. Conversely, despite the Falcons’ dud against the Packers, we know they have the weapons to put points on the board.
Targets: Everyone on offense, with Mike Davis borderline ‘must-play’
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None, but Mike Davis is close
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It is hard to see a way this game plays out that doesn’t involve the Chiefs scoring a ton of points. They are coming off one of their more pedestrian offensive showings, and now they face a Raiders defense that has allowed an average of 30 points per game through the first four weeks of the season. The Raiders’ offense has been pretty consistently decent this year, so they should be able to score enough points to keep the game moderately close in the end.
Targets: Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller, Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Division games always bring some level of uncertainty when it comes to predictions, but the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders take that to an entirely different level. The Chiefs pummeled the Raiders in both of their meetings in 2019, but Kansas City was also held to one of its worst offensive games in the second matchup. The scoreboard didn’t reflect it, but the yardage totals did. It’s not overly likely that Las Vegas holds down the Chiefs again, but the rushing attack of the Raiders does keep quarterback Patrick Mahomes off the field. That might lower Kansas City’s ceiling.
Targets: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller
Fades: None, but I’m probably shying away from both quarterbacks
Must-Owns: None
Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Despite Arizona crushing our hopes and dreams last week, it is hard to see this game going in any direction besides a Cardinals blow out victory. The Jets finally got a nice showing from Sam Darnold last week, and now he is out and leaving the team in the unreliable hands of Joe Flacco. There is simply nothing appealing about this Jets team right now, so look for the Cardinals to control this one from start to finish.
Targets: Kyler Murray, Kenyan Drake, Chase Edmonds and DeAndre Hopkins
Fades: The Jets
Must-Owns: Cardinals Defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: To put it bluntly, it would be a problem for the Arizona Cardinals if they don’t take advantage of backup-turned-starting-quarterback Joe Flacco and the New York Jets on Sunday. Then again, it should also be viewed as a problem that Arizona lost to the Panthers, last week. Still, we’re looking at a team with talent on offense that had much higher hopes than being 2-2 at this point. I won’t go overboard, but I’d want some exposure to the Cardinals’ offense.
Targets: Arizona’s offense and defense
Fades: New York’s offense and defense
Must-Owns: None
Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is one of the weirder games of the week for me. The Steelers seem like an easy call looking at their record and the fact that they are essentially coming off a bye week, but looking at the teams the Steelers have beat this year, it is hard to be overly impressed with their record and offensive production. Their defense is legitimately very good, and should be able to control this shell of an offense that the Eagles are operating with. Ultimately, the strength of both teams so far has been their defense, and I’m expecting the Steelers’ unit to lead them to a low scoring victory this week.
Targets: Both defenses
Fades: All offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’ve grown to like the game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Pittsburgh Steelers more as the week has progressed, but, unfortunately, it has not been for the fantasy prospects. It’s the opposite, as I am actually looking for this game to be on the lower-scoring side of the scale. The Eagles have the tenth-best defense in yards allowed, while the Steelers have beaten up three of the worst teams in the league.
Targets: Both defenses, Miles Sanders, and James Conner
Fades: None, but I don’t want too much exposure to either offense
Must-Owns: None
Los Angeles Rams at Washington Football Team
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While the benching of Dwayne Haskins may improve the offense of the Football Team, I don’t think we see big dividends this week. The Rams just played a total dud of a game against the Giants, and they feel like the team to rebound tremendously after a game like that. I expect the Rams offense to take control of this game immediately, and then allow their talented defense to shut things down.
Targets: Jared Goff, Malcolm Brown, Darrell Henderson Jr., Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Rams Defense
Fades: The Football Team
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m actually one of the few people who believe in quarterback Kyle Allen, and I won’t completely avoid offense from the Washington Football Team with him under center, but I also expect the Los Angeles Rams to silence some critics after a pathetic performance against the Giants. Washington’s defense is starting to show some cracks after I advocated for them over the past few weeks, and the Rams’ offense should be able to take advantage.
Targets: I’m pretty intrigued by both offenses in this game, so pretty much everyone is on the table
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None, but I will own at least one player from this game in almost all of my lineups
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: At a quick glance, you may want to assume the Ravens cruise to victory here, but I would not be so quick to jump to that conclusion. For starters, No matter how well or poorly they have played, the Bengals have found themselves in a one possession game every single week so far, so blowouts don’t seem to be in their makeup. More importantly than that, the Ravens have significantly outscored their actual production on both sides of the ball. They rank seventh in points for on offense and fourth in points allowed on defense despite having the 25th most yards of offense and 17th most yards allowed on defense. It is unlikely that their point production can continue to vastly outperform their yardage production, so it is possible this game winds up much closer than people will want to bet.
Targets: Joe Burrow, Tyler Boyd, Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews
Fades: Joe Mixon and the Ravens’ running backs
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I was surprised to learn that the Cincinnati Bengals have lost their games by a combined eight points and, therefore, been competitive on a weekly basis. The Baltimore Ravens are always a threat to explode — and they dismantled the Bengals in 2019 — but we might see some sneaky offense from this game. I love the fact that Cincinnati is actually letting quarterback Joe Burrow throw, and I am hopeful that the organization won’t suddenly have a change-of-heart.
Targets: Cincinnati’s passing attack
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Whether it is directly a result of finally ridding themselves of Bill O’Brien or not, I am expecting to finally see a good game out of the Texans this week. The Jaguars simply haven’t been very good, and they represent without question the easiest matchup for the Texans so far this season. I’m expecting to see Deshaun Watson put forth a big game which could very well lead to some garbage time production for the Jaguars players as well.
Targets: Deshaun Watson, David Johnson, Will Fuller V, D.J. Chark Jr. and Keelan Cole
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m always looking to a coaching change with the anticipation of a new group stepping up and thriving. Unfortunately, when the defensive coordinator replaces the head coach, it’s hard to think we’ll see a big offensive day — if anything, I would normally lean on the opposite. The Houston Texans are a bit different. The offense needs to revolve around quarterback Deshaun Watson, and there’s a good chance that interim head coach Romeo Crennel completely puts the game on Watson’s shoulders. That’s a gift to the fantasy football community. It also leads to the Jacksonville Jaguars pressing their foot on the gas pedal in response. The problem is that quarterback Gardner Minshew has faced Houston twice in his young career and under-perfomed to the tune of only one touchdown, but two interceptions.
Targets: Houston’s passing attack and defense, and James Robinson
Fades: Jacksonville’s passing attack
Must-Owns: Deshaun Watson
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Miami Dolphins are certainly not a good football team, and pretty much every stat available will support that notion. WIth that said, their three losses — which have all come against good teams — have all been by 10 points or less. That is not to say they are great, but they have found a way to hang around in some games that they had no business competing in. That will likely be the case again this week as outside of George Kittle in his return last week, this 49ers offense doesn’t seem to have a lot going for it right now.
Targets: Myles Gaskin, DeVante Parker, Jerrick McKinnon and George Kittle
Fades: Both Quarterbacks
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In side conversations with Luke, we joked about the idea of the San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins rotating through a combined five quarterbacks on Sunday. It obviously won’t happen, but we are definitely looking at two fluid situations that probably won’t have a concrete resolution before the game begins. Will we see Tua Tagovailoa? Will Jimmy Garoppolo be healthy enough to play? There’s a lot to be decided. Regardless, Miami’s offense predictably took a step backward after a big Thursday Night Football showing, and it is in position for another rebound, despite the poor matchup.
Targets: San Francisco’s rushing attack, DeVante Parker, and Preston Williams
Fades: Both quarterbacks
Must-Owns: None
Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Browns may be 3-1 for the first time in ages, but people trying to put them on an even playing field with the 3-1 Colts seems crazy to me. The Browns’ offense has taken advantage of some very vulnerable teams in the past three weeks after getting dismantled in Week 1 by the Ravens. Their defense is still struggling mightily as they rank 25th in yards allowed per game and 30th in points allowed per game. On the flip side, the Colts’ defense ranks first in the league in yards and points allowed. Add to all of that the injuries on the Browns offense, and this is looking like a comfortable Colts win to me.
Targets: Philip Rivers, Jonathan Taylor, Mo Allie-Cox, Kareem Hunt and Odell Beckham Jr.
Fades: Baker Mayfield
Must-Owns: T.Y. Hilton
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Indianapolis Colts may be one of the most complete teams in the National Football League, but they’re also one of the most boring. They lead the league defensively in both yards and points allowed, are second in time-per-drive, but only 21st in yards gained. Basically, even if they aren’t successful, the Colts are constantly winding down the game clock. The Cleveland Browns probably won’t mind this, as they always prefer to run the ball. These two teams both have the abilities to score at a nice pace, but we’re probably looking at a fantasy dud.
Targets: Jonathan Taylor, Mo Alie-Cox, and possibly both defenses
Fades: Both quarterbacks
Must-Owns: None
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Cowboys may be one of the most disappointing teams in the league so far, but everything about this game screams big win. The Giants offense has shown absolutely no signs of life as they have the second fewest yards of offense and the fewest points scored. The Giants’ defense has actually been very good, but the Cowboys’ offense is proving it can score at will, and I am willing to bet that trend continues this week.
Targets: Darius Slayton, Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Ezekiel Elliott
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys meet in the complete opposite matchup of an immovable object and unstoppable force. The Cowboys’ defense has been nothing-but-movable while the Giants’ offense is a force that never gets started. It’s one weakness versus another and those who want exposure to a team that might finally do something with the ball will probably pile on New York. Otherwise, the Cowboys’ offense has not been stopped by anyone, and I won’t be afraid to look for Dallas’ players against the Giants.
Targets: Dallas’ offense and Darius Slayton
Fades: None, but I’m probably not owning anyone else from the Giants’ offense, despite the great matchup
Must-Owns: Ezekiel Elliott is close to a must-own
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Russell Wilson continues to dominate, and now he gets to take aim at a Vikings defense that ranks 29th in yards allowed and 26th in points. There is absolutely no reason to expect anything less than 30 points from the Seahawks — a number they have hit every week thus far. Despite their record and seemingly poor play to start the season, the Vikings have scored 30 or more in three out of four games this season. Even if they are never close in the game, there is no reason to think they can’t put up plenty of yards and points against this Seattle defense that has allowed the most yards in the entire league.
Targets: Any of the obvious offensive targets on either team
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None, but this game is nearly impossible to ignore
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I just don’t see a way in which the Seattle Seahawks’ offense slows down on a nationally-televised game before a bye week. But, I also don’t see a way in which the Seahawks’ defense slows down a Minnesota Vikings offense that has a history of churning out big games. Minnesota scored at least 30 points in five games, last year, and already reached that mark three times in the first four weeks of this season. It’s probably too ‘obvious’ of a play, but we’re looking at a potential explosion of points on Sunday night. I will probably be a little ‘contrarian’ in one lineup and use Seattle’s defense because of Minnesota’s seven giveaways, to date, but I’m otherwise targeting offense everywhere.
Targets: Everyone
Fades: No one
Must-Owns: In a ‘Showdown,’ Kirk Cousins and probably David Moore — for his price relief
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There aren’t many less appealing games to me this week than this one. The Patriots’ offense looked terrible with Brian Hoyer at the helm, and wasn’t much better once Jarrett Stidham took over. Speaking of unappealing offenses, the Denver offense hasn’t scored more than 21 points against anyone other than the Jets. The Patriots’ defense should dominate this game and allow their offense to run the ball endlessly and put no pressure on whoever they start at quarterback.
Targets: Damien Harris, James White, Rex Burkhead and the Patriots Defense
Fades: Broncos Offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Forget the actual outcome and final score from last week’s game from the New England Patriots and, instead, focus on the plan-of-attack. It was as predictable as anything we’ve seen. That is, the Patriots were going to mercilessly run the ball to keep Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes off the field and limit their own offense’s exposure to the passing game under Brian Hoyer or Jarrett Stidham. Regardless of the quarterback in Monday’s early game, why wouldn’t New England utilize the same exact strategy? The Denver Broncos’ have their own decision to make at the quarterback position, but I’m not expecting any of the team’s signal-callers to thrive against a Bill Belichick defense. I’m sure I’ll pick-and-choose a few players for my fantasy lineup, but cautiously.
Targets: Patriots’ running game
Fades: Denver’s offense
Must-Owns: Patriots’ defense
Los Angeles Chargers at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: After a slow start last week, and to the season to a degree, the Saints finally turned it on and looked like the team we have come to know and love. Drew Brees showed serious signs of life while the run game continued to thrive. The Chargers’ defense is no slouch, but the Saints should be able to consistently put up points. Justin Herbert, the newly named starting quarterback, has shown an ability to move the ball effectively as the Chargers’ offense is sixth in the league in yards of offense. There should be plenty of offense to go around in this game.
Targets: Justin Herbert, Joshua Kelley, Hunter Henry, Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas (if active) and Tre’Quan Smith
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Keenan Allen
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I struggled with landing on the actual expectation for how the game between the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Chargers would unfold, but every route leads to some offense from the Saints. The question is whether-or-not the Chargers can return serve. If you’re buying into a big Saints win, then you have the usual suspects — with the potential added bonus of wide receiver Michael Thomas possibly playing — but there’s certainly value with looking at Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert and his skill position players if the team has to throw because it’s trailing.
Targets: Keenan Allen, Alvin Kamara, and both quarterbacks
Fades: None, but I’m probably not overloading this game in a Primetime contest
Must-Owns: Michael Thomas — if he’s healthy
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It is nearly impossible to write about this game considering it may not get played. Should it be played, I would have to lean towards the Bills since the Titans haven’t been allowed in their facility for two weeks now. Overall, I’m pretending like this game does not exist for the time being.
Targets: None
Fades: This game
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The game between the Tennessee Titans and Buffalo Bills has been moved to a new Tuesday night timeslot. With that, I’m actually looking to use some players in my fantasy lineup — especially if it remains in a main-slate tournament. Titans wide receiver A.J. Brown is expected back, while Buffalo’s Stefon Diggs continues to impress. We might have some underrated offense between two teams that carry the perception of defense, but individually rank no better than 20th in yards allowed.
Targets: Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, Ryan Tannehill, A.J. Brown, and Derrick Henry
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Stefon Diggs