With an early game in London and four teams on a bye, we have the smallest main slate to this point. Thankfully, there are a few games that may carry the bulk of our lineups. We do need to be careful, though, as some appear to be clear and “easy” in their direction. That will lead to chalk — either to play or to fade — and we should make note of this before proclaiming how we will handle it.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 6 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: For the second week in a row, I will be largely fading the Green Bay Packers. While Davante Adams and Aaron Jones are capable of breaking out in any game, this offense is lacking depth, and it is generally holding them back. Against a top ten defense in both yards and points allowed, I don’t love the Packers to turn in a big game. The Bears’ offense has hardly been impressive this season, and as they continue without David Montgomery and manage a banged-up Allen Robinson II, my expectations remain low. Considering the Packers defense ranks sixth in the league in yards allowed, there is no reason to bank on them figuring things out this week.
Targets: Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, and Packers Defense
Fades: Aaron Rodgers and Justin FIelds
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Like my counterpart, Luke — who I assume will write something similar — I have not been in love with the Chicago Bears’ offense at any point this season. That isn’t going to change with the Green Bay Packers and their quietly stout defense coming to town. The problem? I’m not entirely sure what the Packers will do offensively either. We have seen the Steelers and Bengals limit Green Bay to some extent, and a road game against a division rival that has managed a winning record to this point is not the best setup for the Packers to explode. I will lean on wide receiver Davante Adams, though, as he simply devours targets. His price is insanely high, but so is his potential.
Targets: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, and both defenses
Fades: Chicago’s offense
Must-Owns: Davante Adams — if salary space allows
Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We have talked at great lengths this season about the fight that the Lions have shown despite their general lack of talent. While it is admirable, it can only take them so far, and that is evident by their winless record. I worried about them falling apart after their devastating loss to the Ravens, and they were more or less dominated the following week by a lowly Chicago Bears offense. Coming off another nearly impossible, last-second field goal loss, I think we see another predictable letdown from this Lions team. The Bengals offense has been consistent and efficient but has yet to have a major breakout game, but that may change this week.
Targets: All main Bengals offensive players, Bengals Defense, D’Andre Swift, and Amon-Ra St. Brown
Fades: Jared Goff
Must-Owns: None, but depending on the Bengals running back situation, someone may emerge as a must-own there
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We’ve got two big storylines for the non-conference game between the Detroit Lions and Cincinnati Bengals. The first is the health of Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow. He’s expected to play but, as of this writing, is resting his voice in order to allow his throat time to heal. I’m not sure how that impacts play on Sunday, but it’s a little unusual to see. Regardless, I’m not buying too heavily into the Bengals’ offense anyway, as the team ranks just 25th in yards gained. That’s where we bring in the second storyline. The Lions suffered yet another heartbreak in last week’s loss, and there is only so much pain the team can withstand before completely collapsing. Even if it doesn’t happen yet, the Bengals’ defense is easily stout enough to limit the upside of Detroit’s offense.
Targets: Jared Goff, D’Andre Swift — if healthy — Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tyler Boyd, and both defenses
Fades: Joe Burrow
Must-Owns: None
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We were high on the Colts last week in a great spot for an upset, and they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. After playing nearly perfect football for three quarters, they let that game slip away. I don’t expect that this weekend against a Texans team that pulled out all the stops last week and was still unable to snag a victory under Davis Mills. I fully expect a big win by the Colts as they look to try and keep pace with the Titans in the poor AFC South.
Targets: Michael Pittman Jr., Colts Defense, and Brandin Cooks
Fades: Davis Mills and Texans Running Backs
Must-Owns: Jonathan Taylor
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I just wrote about the heartbreak that was the Lions’ last-second loss, but the Indianapolis Colts might have had a worse collapse. In addition, Detroit is almost certainly going nowhere this year, while Indianapolis would have been one game out of first place had they held onto a 16-point lead in the fourth quarter. The good news for the Colts is that they will now face a Houston Texans defense that has allowed at least 350 yards of offense to all five opponents. We also saw some life out of the Texans last week as they, too, suffered a late, tough loss. This offensive pop was expected, though, as Houston was returning from being shutout the week before. Now, it’s more likely that the Texans go back into their shell of overall ineffectiveness.
Targets: Carson Wentz, Michael Pittman, Jr., Brandin Cooks, and Colts defense
Fades: Everyone else from Houston
Must-Owns: Jonathan Taylor
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I regularly say I try and avoid the obvious stances that NFL fans take, but it is hard to expect anything other than an easy Rams win this week. At full strength, the Rams hold a massive advantage over the Giants, and they are coming off a mini bye week thanks to their Thursday game in Week 5. As if that wasn’t enough, the Giants are dealing with injuries to essentially everyone on their team. The Rams defense has been far from great this season, but playing against a depleted Giants team gives them an opportunity to turn their season around and start pulling their weight.
Targets: Matthew Stafford, Sony Michel, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Rams Defense, and possibly a Giants player that winds up healthy and active
Fades: The Giants
Must-Owns: Darrell Henderson Jr.
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The easy storyline for the game between the New York Giants and Los Angeles Rams is injuries. Essentially every player of importance on the Giants is listed on the injury report, and there’s a realistic chance that we see backups at almost every position. That actually has some fantasy value. Whichever wide receivers are healthy enough to play will likely be the main target for the bulk of passes, and no one is too expensive to ignore at a high volume. There’s an easy avenue to everyone failing, but the limited options help us in a big way. For the Rams, the obvious expectation is that the team will take the lead and run the ball to wind the clock. That’s likely, but I actually want some exposure to the passing game. The Giants played a surprisingly tight game against Los Angeles on the road last year, so it’s not impossible that we see a repeat. If that happens, the Rams’ pass-catchers get a boost. Otherwise, Los Angeles will have already jumped out to a lead because of early success, and that would produce the same DFS result.
Targets: Matthew Stafford, Darrell Henderson, Jr., Sony Michel, whichever wide receiver is healthy for the Giants, and Evan Engram
Fades: Actually, none
Must-Owns: Cooper Kupp
Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Football Team
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It still doesn’t feel right, but I am all aboard thinking the Washington defense simply doesn’t have it this year. They have struggled every week this season which is clear by the fact that they rank 27th in the league in yards allowed and 31st in points allowed. That is bad news for them against a somewhat desperate Chiefs team that is more than capable of running up the score of opposing teams. Luckily for the Washington offense, they should be able to put up plenty of yards and points of their own against what is unquestionably the worst defense in the league so far this season.
Targets: Darrel Williams, Tyreek Hill (if healthy), Mecole Hardman, Josh Gordon, Travis Kelce, Taylor Heinicke, J.D. McKissic, and Terry McLaurin
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: Patrick Mahomes
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s almost laughable at this point how many times we have already seen certain offenses called into question only for said offense to explode. Not only has it happened an abnormal amount of times in just five weeks, but this is the second time it’s being directed at the Kansas City Chiefs. As long as Patrick Mahomes is under center for Kansas City, I’m going to set my floor expectations as high as anyone else’s — barring a sneaky matchup that happens occasionally. The Washington Football Team could get pressure on Mahomes and that could lead to a slightly less productive day, but I’m buying in without hesitation. It is fair, though, to criticize the Chiefs’ defense. We’ve seen this often in the Mahomes Era, where Kansas City allows opponents to march up and down the field. That leaves Washington in-play.
Targets: Everyone on offense, even though this will be the ‘chalk game’ of the weekend, where it might be wise to limit the player pool from this matchup
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None, but Travis Kelce is close
Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game is hard to predict for a number of reasons. The first component is that both of these teams have had serious highs and serious lows this season. It is hard to truly gauge just how good or bad the teams are. As if they weren’t tricky enough, essentially every player of significance in this game is dealing with somewhat of a serious injury at the moment. The Vikings’ offense should be good enough to have some success against a good Carolina defense, and the Vikings’ defense is weak enough to allow the Panthers some room to operate. This game should see enough offense to be moderately appealing, but identifying the real targets is going to have to wait until the end of the week when a clearer image is available of who will be active for this matchup.
Targets: Whichever key offensive contributors wind up playing
Fades: Whoever winds up playing through significant injury
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I am absolutely a believer in the Carolina Panthers, especially the team’s defense — to which the organization keeps adding with its trades. That immediately lowers the potential for the Minnesota Vikings’ offense. Of course, there are playmakers who could break through for a big game, but I don’t want to build my lineup around them with the threat of Carolina limiting what they could do. The other side of the matchup is much trickier. Minnesota ranks 17th in yards allowed, but 29th in yards-per-carry. I might go back to the well with Chuba Hubbard, although the body of work leaves a lot to be desired. Overall, I’m probably staying away from most of the offense in this game.
Targets: Chuba Hubbard, Dalvin Cook, and both defenses
Fades: Both quarterbacks
Must-Owns: None
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In one of my bolder takes of the week, I am actually expecting this game to be a major fantasy letdown. The Chargers’ offense has been very good all year, but coming off their 47 point, miracle comeback win, I feel like this sets up as an emotional letdown spot. On the other side of this game, the Ravens are coming off a miracle comeback win of their own led by a late blocked field goal and a tremendously busy and effective game through the air for Lamar Jackson. After the way both of these teams managed to win last week and managed to battle to impressive 4-1 records, it feels like a spot for both teams to collectively come back to earth together in a slow-paced game loaded with punts.
Targets: Austin Ekeler, Kennan Allen, Chargers Defense, Lamar Jackson, and Mark Andrews
Fades: Justin Herbert and Ravens Running Backs
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There’s a surprising irony to the matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers that puts us in a weird position. The Chargers are terrible at stopping the run — and the Browns took advantage of this last week — but the Ravens, despite their outstanding overall numbers, are not running as well as they have in the past. That actually might be an avenue for a sneaky play, where I would consider one of the Ravens’ running back in anticipation that the team tries to win on the ground while also sparing quarterback Lamar Jackson from being the sole source of rushing yards. For the Chargers’ offense, it’s hard to expect quarterback Justin Herbert to stop producing, but it is likely that he slows down after another frenetic game. Indeed, the numbers have been there, but we would be buying at a high point after a near-400-yard outing.
Targets: Keenan Allen, Lamar Jackson — but with lowered expectations in the aerial attack — Latavius Murray, and both defenses
Fades: Justin Herbert
Must-Owns: None
Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I try not to be overly swayed by the Vegas lines when thinking about fantasy, but when the 3-2 Browns are noticeable favorites over the 5-0 Cardinals, I have to take notice. The Browns are going to win this game, and there is a very clear path to that happening. The Browns take the league’s best rush offense — first in attempts, yards, and yards/per attempt — up against a Cardinals defense that ranks 31st in the league in yards allowed per rush attempt. We just watched the Browns run all over another poor run defense last week, and I am expecting much of the same this week. With a little better showing from the Browns defense, they should be able to control this matchup on the ground.
Targets: Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, and Kareem Hunt
Fades: James Conner and Baker Mayfield
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Even though they lost the game, the Cleveland Browns did exactly what they should have given the matchup against the Chargers last week. They ran the ball successfully. The same exact setup awaits them against an Arizona Cardinals defense that is allowing the second-most yards-per-carry. I’ll go back to the well with the same usual suspects from the Browns’ rushing attack — namely, Kareem Hunt now that Nick Chubb will miss the game. The Cardinals were finally slowed down in last week’s win against the 49ers, and there are reports that quarterback Kyler Murray is nursing a slight shoulder injury. That’s concerning not only because of the team’s likely regression from the outrageous pace it was on through the first quarter of the season, but because Murray’s numbers suffered toward the end of last year when dealing with a similar ailment.
Targets: DeAndre Hopkins — if he plays
Fades: Both quarterbacks
Must-Owns: Kareem Hunt
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While it is always hard to gauge how a team will react to an internal scandal, I find myself believing this Jon Gruden situation will bring this Raiders team closer together moving forward. I think after a long week filled with a lot of outside noise, this team will come out ready to remind the world that their focus is on football, and prove that they are still playoff contenders after a couple of down games. The Broncos’ defense is obviously no joke, but I love a bounce-back game from a Raiders offense that went from being the best in the league through three weeks to struggling mightily in their past two games.
Targets: Henry Ruggs III, Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller, Javonte Williams, and Noah Fant
Fades: Teddy Bridgewater
Must-Owns: Derek Carr
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The obvious storyline is the departure of Las Vegas Raiders head coach Jon Gruden, and it leaves us in a tricky position as to what we should expect from the team on Sunday. The one element that stands out is how committed Gruden was to getting the ball in the hands of running back Josh Jacobs — even when Jacobs appeared to be hindered by injury. That is probably less of a focus for the offense now. There is also the factor of the Denver Broncos’ defense, which has been as good as advertised. The irony is that the Raider’s defense is also solid, so we are probably looking at a less appealing day for fantasy managers. I wouldn’t ignore Las Vegas’ passing attack, though, as quarterback Derek Carr was leading the league in yards just a few weeks ago and the team might want to lean on him again given the potential shift in gameplan.
Targets: Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs — but not with as much conviction as in the past — Henry Ruggs III, Darren Waler, Javonte Williams, and Courtland Sutton
Fades: Teddy Bridgewater
Must-Owns: None
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is one of the harder games of the week for me to gauge. The Cowboys’ offense has been nearly perfect lately, averaging just over 40 points per game in their last three games. Is that pace sustainable, and can they continue to run up the score against a Patriots defense that ranks 5th in points allowed, 5th in yards allowed, 11th in net yards per pass attempt, and 6th in yards per rush attempt? On the flip side of the ball, can the Cowboys continue to create multiple turnovers every single game, and manage to keep opponents out of the endzone while ranking 25th in the league in yards allowed? My expectation is that a game in Foxborough slightly brings the Cowboys back to reality on both sides of the ball. I’m not sure the Patriots will steal a win, but I think they keep this game close while managing to slow down the Cowboys’ offense a bit.
Targets: Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, Dalton Schultz, Mac Jones, Kendrick Bourne, and Hunter Henry
Fades: Dak Prescott and Damien Harris
Must-Owns: Jakobi Meyers
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I don’t like to give a wide range of outcomes for a particular game if I can help it. After all, the point of this article is to go through the important elements of a matchup. Still, we are at an odd crossroads between the New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys. Specifically, the Cowboys are on an impossibly unsustainable streak of takeaways, and the success rate will plummet at any time. The problem? There’s no way of knowing if Sunday is that time. The Patriots have turned the ball over often in recent weeks, but their stats are also weighed down by one bad game. The fact that Dallas is still allowing the eighth-most yards-per-game is enough to have me target some offense from New England. Jakobi Meyers is at the top of my list as it appears the Patriots are trying to get him his first career touchdown — despite over 100 receptions already. On the other side of the ball, it’s hard to move away from the Cowboys’ offense in any matchup, but the Patriots’ best chance of winning the game is to rely on the league’s fifth-best defense.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Damien Harris — if healthy — Tony Pollard, and CeeDee Lamb
Fades: Ezekiel Elliott
Must-Owns: Jakobi Meyers
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers – Read Dan DeAngelis’ SNF Betting Guide Here
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There has rarely ever been a Seahawks game that I could say does not intrigue me at all, but with Russell Wilson out of the lineup, it is hard to have any faith in this team whatsoever. Geno Smith performed admirably in relief last week, but we have seen enough of Smith over the years to know he is a far cry from what Wilson provides. Against this Steelers defense, Smith will have his hands full. This game would set up for the Steelers to dominate thanks to the Seahawks defensive struggles, but this Steelers offense is also hard to trust. On top of their immense struggles in general, they are dealing with a slew of injuries to key players that will leave them at less than 100%.
Targets: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Diontae Johnson, and Steelers Defense
Fades: Geno Smith and Ben Roethlisberger
Must-Owns: Najee Harris
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m saddened. I always write about how much I enjoy watching quarterback Russell Wilson play, and we will now have a Primetime game in which Wilson is out and Geno Smith will stand in his place. This is the obvious route to a ‘contrarian’ setup, where you can use Smith in a Showdown lineup in an effort to catch lightning in a bottle. It has a low chance of success on the two-game slate because of the other options but, for Sunday night, Smith can find his way into two or three scoring drives. Otherwise, the play is the chalk of Pittsburgh’s defense shutting down Seattle’s offense. There might be justification to ignoring much of the Steelers’ offense as well. Even though the Seahawks’ defense is allowing the most yards in the league, it is probably the only manner in which the team competes on Sunday.
Targets: Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Ben Roethlisberger, whichever pass-catchers are healthy for Pittsburgh, and Steelers defense
Fades: Seahawks Running Backs
Must-Owns: Najee Harris
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I was fully expecting a letdown game last week for the Bills, not that they are bad, but their margin of victory seemed unsustainable, especially against a team of the Chiefs’ caliber. Despite that thinking, they came out and dominated yet another game. After seeing that, I am finding it somewhat hard to believe the Titans can slow down this Bills team that has the number one scoring offense and defense in the league. This Titans’ defense has had major struggles this year, so that should allow the Bills to continue pouring on the points. The Titans’ offense does have the talent to compete, but the game flow here may force them away from giving Derrick Henry his standard 30 carries.
Targets: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, Ryan Tannehill, Julio Jones, A.J. Brown, and Jeremy McNichols
Fades: Devin Singletary, Dawson Knox, and Derrick Henry
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’ve written about the Tennessee Titans’ pathetic defense in basically every article for the past few weeks, but it is going to be on full display against a Buffalo Bills team that ranks first in the league in yards gained and points scored. This could ugly quickly. My approach is going to differ, however, as I do expect the Titans’ offense to find success with a balanced attack. Don’t forget that Tennessee absolutely ambushed Buffalo in a Primetime game last year when the Titans were battling issues with COVID, and they have a recipe for success in this particular matchup. It is hard to expect anything other than offense, so I will be buying into most players on Monday night.
Targets: All offensive players
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Ryan Tannehill