With two games on Saturday, we have a somewhat smaller slate for the main action on Sunday and Monday. We do, however, have a few outstanding matchups both for football-watching and fantasy purposes.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 15 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take: The Bills took part in the most visually entertaining game of the week last week due to the snow storm that impacted the game. While it was an enjoyable game, and a big win for the Bills to keep their playoff hopes alive, playing that game in the snow was almost certainly more physically taxing than a normal game would be. After that exciting and exhausting game, it seems all but likely that the Bills come out flat in this one and never really put up a strong fight. They will likely be worn out on both sides of the ball, especially on defense after allowing Frank Gore to rush for 130 yards on 36 carries. That sets the stage perfectly for Kenyan Drake to be featured early and often as he continues to solidify himself as a dynamic playmaker. Two weeks in a row, Drake has made big play after big play and seems like he has real potential to turn into a legitimate three-down back. The Bills are allowing the second most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs which makes the matchup that much better. Considering Drake’s recent production, and favorable matchup, he seems to be well underpriced at $5,800 and should be a very strong option this week.
Mario’s DFS Take: We could only be so lucky to get another game in Buffalo like last week’s. Unfortunately, we may have hit our one-snow-filled-game-per-season quota. Now, not only can we expect a more conventional game on Sunday, but we cannot take anything from last week’s contest. The only possible lasting effect is that Bills running back LeSean McCoy was asked to carry the ball 32 times. He appeared to not mind this heavy workload in the moment, but the increased carries and tough conditions made it one of the most physically draining games of the year. I would be careful before expecting too big of a performance one week later. With McCoy’s ceiling somewhat limited, so, too, is the ceiling of Buffalo’s offense. Miami’s defense slides into play, but it is also due for somewhat of a regression after shutting down the high-powered Patriots offense. Of course, the Dolphins’ offense is putrid on a good day – 28th in yards – so Buffalo’s defense is in-line for a good day.