It took a little time, but we are finally starting to see pricing move at a more dramatic pace to catch up with what has transpired over the last two weeks. It isn’t a perfect system, though, and there is still plenty of value to be found.
Based on our expected Week 3 DFS game flow analysis and Week 3 Games to Target published earlier, we can carry our thoughts into actual lineup positions. The long list of players that fit the requirements set forth by the projected flow of the game was cut dramatically by the requirements set forth by salaries.
Below are Sporfolio’s DFS Week 3 Plays:
Quarterback
Justin Herbert – We put a lot of stock in game flow, and Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has it squarely in his favor on Sunday. His team will either be pulling off the road ‘upset’ against a division rival — in which he would have had to play well — or trailing and an attempt at a comeback — in which he would need to throw more. Either way, Herbert should be at the center, and he proved more-than-capable of delivering stellar fantasy performances during his rookie season. He returned to that level yet, but he’s also discounted as a result. We’re buying here.
Baker Mayfield – Between the historical perception of the Chicago Bears — it’s easy to associate with defense — and the Cleveland Browns’ desire to run the ball — fifth-most rush attempts and second-fewest pass attempts — it is probably counterintuitive to see Baker Mayfield’s name on this list. That’s largely because neither of the aforementioned factors should play a role on Sunday. The Bears’ defense is, indeed, allowing the eighth-fewest yards in the league, but it is far less efficient against the pass than the run. The more important element is that, even though the Browns want to run, they still throw enough to remain relevant in the aerial attack. The presence of rookie quarterback Justin Fields for Chicago also adds some unknown to the matchup, where Chicago’s offense might push the Browns into a more aggressive approach. Either way, Mayfield’s salary is modest enough for his upside.
Trevor Lawrence – We have either written about or considered using Jacksonville Jaguars rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence in each of the first three weeks of the season, and it probably won’t stop anytime soon. The argument in Lawrence’s favor is simple — and it’s something we have seen with the Jaguars, in particular, over the years. Jacksonville will almost certainly trail in the game on Sunday, and the forces the team into a necessity of throwing the ball. Increased volume leads to increased opportunity for fantasy points and the cycle continues. There is some risk with the actual head-to-head matchup — the Arizona Cardinals have been stout against the pass — but that should suppress Lawrence’s popularity. Again, we are buying volume here.