Believe it or not, it began as expected. The tide slowly – and subtly – began to shift.
As noted in last week’s introduction, the 2016 season has been incredibly odd, but not because of wild swings of action or random bouts of luck – although they have also been present – but for the general outcome of one week after another. That is, a few key teams continue to perform at a surprisingly high rate.
The twist in the story actually arrives in the beginning, as the first half of the season – specifically, the first quarter of the season – has gone almost exclusively in the direction of underdogs. Not only is this a rarity – both underdogs and favorites usually balance out by the end of the year – but it is counter-intuitive of ‘easy teams’ covering games on a consistent basis. Until we find the exceptions.
In Week 8, we determined that the Patriots would not fall victim to a ‘letdown’ or ‘trap’ and cover the spread as one win for a relatively ‘easy’ team. The rest of the games would not follow suit. This was evident by our confidence pick of Chicago to close out the week.
With a shuffled schedule in Week 9 – no specific traps are laid out for the latter Primetime contests – we need to find the high and low points accordingly. Thankfully, we are closely following this trend, as the 2016 season has cleverly placed a few mines that trigger at just the right time. Even if the bulk of the field was navigated properly.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2016 Season: 27-27-1 (Last Week: 4-2)
(2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2)
All Picks Against Spread – 2016 Season: 57-61-2 (Last Week: 7-6)
(2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4)
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
How’s this for a segue from one week to the next? Immediately after the Bears pull off the improbable home upset of the previously high-flying Vikings, the Buccaneers are in the exact same position, aiming to knock off the now high-flying Falcons. The even more impressive parallel is that Minnesota was arguably the ‘easiest’ pick of the week for many, making them the ideal candidate to get caught napping. And which team has that ‘honor’ in Week 9? Of course. Atlanta.