What a difference a year makes.
It’s not just the standings – although it is nice to be back atop the leaderboards over at NFLPickwatch for the third time in four years – but the overall flow of the season, itself. A team rises suddenly, plays well, then sinks back down to the depths. And vice versa. It’s the natural order of the football world. There are exceptions, but they are, by definition, outliers.
Last year, these outliers gave the false impression that they were representative of a changing tide. Specifically, it showed that teams can walk into ‘traps’ and emerge unscathed. But, these ‘traps’ are what makes the industry thrive. It always has. It is the reason why picking games against-the-spread is so difficult. And, it is how this column has found success.
Still, the 2016 season could have deterred those who make the spreads to abandon their methods. They could have conformed to what-appeared-to-be the ‘new order.’ They didn’t. I’m grateful.
With the spreads, once again, telling accurate stories about what to expect, we simply need to read them.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2017 Season: 30-25-3 (Last Week: 5-1)
(2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (3-Year Total: 183-158-7)
All Picks Against Spread – 2017 Season: 81-59-6 (Last Week: 9-5)
(2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (3-Year Total: 415-367-19)
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers
Those Pittsburgh Steelers are worrisome, are they not? To date, an offense featuring Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown are averaging 20.8 points-per-game, rank 19th in the league in that category, have not reached 30 points yet, and scored just 20 points against the league’s worst scoring defense in Indianapolis. But, Pittsburgh is 7-2. All is forgiven.
Those Tennessee Titans are hot, are they not? To date, an offense featuring a deadly one-two punch in the backfield has produced the second-most rushing touchdowns in the league, while the defense had only a single hiccup and has otherwise allowed no more than 27 points in every other game, this year. And, Tennessee is 6-3. All is well.
While the narrative can be skewed in any direction, it is important to acknowledge both the truths and stretches of reality in the aforementioned points. Pittsburgh offense has struggled, but the team shares the best record in the AFC. The Titans are 6-3 and tied for first place in their division, and they have done so relatively quietly, as the defensive statistics fail to deliver the message that they had a singular terrible outing.
No matter how the story is phrased, one unifying tool will always have an important say in the conversation. The spread opened at eight points and dipped a bit. Now at seven points, the spread is large. But, what is it telling us?
Quite simply, that the Steelers are about to pop.
Pittsburgh’s offense has been surprisingly stale, but the team is being to win by at least a touchdown on Thursday night. So far, such a request would have been met with success only three times. Two were against division opponents. But, the most recent time the Steelers won by at least seven points was also the most recent time it played at home. Four weeks ago.
The Steelers traveled to Detroit, won on national television in a hotly-contested battled, had a bye week, and then returned for a dud in Indianapolis. Granted, Pittsburgh won, but it was, by no means, noteworthy.
That is, unless we recognize that the spread should be smaller. But isn’t.
Despite the mediocrity, Pittsburgh’s 7-2 record is that of a sleeping giant. It keeps winning at a sub-par level. Imagine what it is capable of doing if it wakes up. We will get the opportunity to see this firsthand, as the seven-point spread is challenging the Steelers to respond. They will.
Pittsburgh ranks second-best in both scoring defense and yards-allowed-per-game. It’s 19th-ranked offense in points also features a top-ten offense in yards. Tennessee’s defense has an ‘opposite-split,’ of sorts, where its scoring defense is worse than its overall defense. This is the avenue through which the Steelers will finally find the endzone and thrive.
Pittsburgh wins by ten points and covers the relatively large spread.
Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns
How sad are Cleveland Browns? Prior to the season, as the team flips through its schedule, it finds itself in the familiar position of playing against the weakest teams the AFC has to offer. Surely, there are some wins to be had. At least, more than the one from last year. The Jets? Yes, they are supposed to be terrible. The Colts? Andrew Luck is hurt and no one knows when he’s returning, so there’s another victory. And, if all else fails, we can always rely on the Jaguars. They never put up a fight.
Nine losses later, the Browns are looking for their first win. The Jaguars come rolling into town on a three-game winning streak and now 6-3 on the season. What-was-once a perfect pairing of ineptitude has now been split. Jacksonville has pulled away and is not looking back.
Including Sunday, the Jaguars have seven games remaining on their schedule. Only two are against teams that currently have a winning record. In the blink of an eye, the Jaguars became the team looking for easy wins. Only, in contrast to Cleveland, they found them.