As we write almost every year when Week 2 arrives, it’s time to see where the overreactions were strongest. Whether in against-the-spread picks or forming a DFS lineup, we only have a small sample size to use for our analysis. That’s even more accurate in 2020 without a preseason. The goal, therefore, is to find the edge where we know people have made snap decisions.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 2 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
New York Giants at Chicago Bears
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Bears may be the team here that won their Week 1 game, but I was more impressed by the Giants last week than I was with the Bears. The comeback victory by the Bears was essentially gifted to them by Detroit while the Giants hung in against a very tough Steelers team without any run game whatsoever. After seeing Adrian Peterson run all over the Bears last week, expect a nice bounce back showing from Barkley this week.
Targets: Sterling Shepard
Fades: Bears Offense
Must-Owns: Saquon Barkley
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Lets’ not forget that the Chicago Bears had a total of six points through three quarters against the Lions before finally turning on the jets and scoring repeatedly. New York’s defense might actually be good. In fact, there is tremendously sneaky potential with the Giants’ offense, as Chicago’s defense allowed the fourth-most yards in Week 1.
Targets: Allen Robinson, Giants Defense
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: Saquon Barkley
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There really isn’t much to say here besides load up on this game. We saw the Falcons’ defense get dominated last week, and the Cowboys’ offense has enough talent across the board to replicate what Seattle did last week. Even if the Falcons fall behind early, we know Matt Ryan is capable of throwing the ball endlessly to try and play catch up while racking up fantasy points for his entire offense.
Targets: Basically anybody that is on the field regularly for either offense
Fades: Defenses
Must-Owns: Nobody in particular at this point, but this game is a must target
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Much like last week’s writeup involving the Dallas Cowboys, it’s hard to imagine that the team doesn’t score while also allowing late yards and points. This plays perfectly into the fantasy element of the Atlanta Falcons. In Week 1, the Falcons spent much of the second half taking to the air in an attempt to mount a comeback. The result was outstanding for fantasy owners.
Targets: All offensive players
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Ezekiel Elliott
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Lions choked away last week’s game, and it will be hard for me to completely move past that. That is especially true considering they now play the Packers and the deadly duo of Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. The Packers did exactly what we expected last week, and against another team with a vulnerable defense, it is hard to imagine how Adams — whose price is still very palatable — doesn’t have a field day once again.
Targets: D’Andre Swift, Danny Amendola, T.J. Hockenson, Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Devante Adams
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m not sure we’ll see the same offensive explosion from the Green Bay Packers and their opponent in Week 2 that we had on Opening Day, but it’s certainly possible that the stars are aligning in that direction. Why? Because the Detroit Lions can move the football, and the Packers already showed how dangerous their offense could be. Davante Adams is probably going to remain in ‘must-start’ category for the foreseeable future, even though his price will steadily rise to the point that we have to consider looking elsewhere. Not yet.
Targets: Matthew Stafford, D’Andre Swift, Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Davante Adams
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Before anyone gets overly excited about the Jaguars’ win, it is critical to note they were one of the worst teams last week in terms of yards of offense and yards allowed. Them winning that game was essentially a miracle, and their luck will run out this week. Derrick Henry figures to continue his complete and utter domination of the Jaguars.
Targets: Titans Defense
Fades: Jaguars Offense
Must-Owns: Derrick Henry
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The more I researched for the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans, the more clear it became that running back Derrick Henry is a ‘must-own.’ It’s not rocket science. He has dominated Jacksonville in the past. The real value from Henry comes from his volume. He carried the ball 31 times against the Broncos in what-could-have-been a pass-friendly game script.
Targets: Ryan Tannehill, A.J. Brown, Gardner Minshew
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Derrick Henry
Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Yes, the Colts may have lost to the Jaguars lost week, but they completely controlled that game in all facets. A few bad breaks and mistakes cost them what was actually a very well played football game. The Vikings will turn their season around eventually, but their defense is a work in progress, and their offense isn’t built to play from behind. Colts win this game in what should be a slow paced game primarily.
Targets: Dalvin Cook and Jonathan Taylor
Fades: Both Teams’ Passing Games
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While I won’t use the Minnesota Vikings’ defensive woes in Week 1 as the gauge, it’s entirely possible that Week 2’s game against the Indianapolis Colts develops into a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair. It’s desperation time for each team’s offense and, while I don’t normally rely on desperation to determine success, I will look for it in terms of intent. Both teams will look to rebound by putting points on the scoreboard, and I’m definitely using some offensive players from this game in my lineup.
Targets: Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, Philip Rivers, T.Y. Hilton, Jack Doyle (if healthy)
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: At least one player from this game
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Bills continue their early season cake walk of a schedule against a Dolphins team that is simply not going to be good. Whether DeVante Parker winds up playing or not, this tough Bills defense should be able to shut down Ryan Fitzpatrick with relative ease. I still don’t love this Bills offense, but in another fairly easy matchup, there are some viable targets once again.
Targets: Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, Zack Moss and Bills Defense
Fades: Dolphins Offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Miami Dolphins were able to reach 20 points scored in both of their games against the Buffalo Bills in 2019, but they were also capped at 21 in each. I’m using this as an indication that I should not expect a complete shutdown of Miami’s offense, but an explosion is equally unlikely. Instead, I might pick-and-choose a singular player from the game and move on to dig through other matchups.
Targets: Stefon Diggs, Mike Gesicki, Myles Gaskins
Fades: Josh Allen and both defenses
Must-Owns: None
San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The 49ers may have been upset last week, but I can’t see that happening again this week. The Jets showed absolutely nothing to feel good about last week, and now they are without Le’Veon Bell and Jamison Crowder. The 49ers should be able to run the ball all game long and dominate defensively.
Targets: Raheem Mostert, Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers Defense
Fades: Jets Offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s hard to imagine we find offense in too many places in Sunday’s game between the San Francisco 49ers and New York Jets, and that limitation extends to the 49ers’ offense as well. As noted in my picks column, San Francisco averages only 19 points-per-game in early window matchups on the East Coast, and I would be willing to look elsewhere for offense. Both defenses are in-play.
Targets: Jamison Crowder and both defenses
Fades: The rest of both team’s offenses
Must-Owns: None
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Admittedly, this is one of my more uncertain games this week. I truly believe the Rams are the better team here, and both teams played how I expected last week, but something about this game feels like a trap. I can’t quite see how the Rams lose, but I don’t see myself heavily investing in this game either. Overall I’m going to probably steer clear and hope this one disappoints all around.
Targets: Cooper Kupp and Miles Sanders
Fades: Mostly Everything About This Game
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The strong shift in the spread is telling quite the story, but the fact that the number has remained small means that we should get a great battle between the Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles. After seeing how dangerous it was to slow down offensively in Week 1, the Eagles would be wise to keep the pressure on for 60 minutes. The Rams applied pressure to Dallas basically all game on Opening Night, as Los Angeles was frequently going with a no-huddle offense. It didn’t always work, but it leads us to see the road to a higher-scoring game between these two teams.
Targets: Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Carson Wentz, Miles Sanders, Zach Ertz
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Steelers defense proved to be every bit as tough as we expected last week, but their offense did not particularly impress against a weak Giants defense. Now they face off against an all around better team, especially defensively, and I don’t see the offense — with all of their injury uncertainty — stepping it up much this week. This game feels like a low scoring, slugfest kind of game. Essentially, the exact opposite of what I’m looking for in a fantasy football world.
Targets: Benny Snell Jr. (only if James Conner is out)
Fades: Both Offenses
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: At the risk of being too obvious, I’m not looking for offense in the game between the Denver Broncos and Pittsburgh Steelers. Even with the weapons Pittsburgh has on offense, it did not show the explosiveness in Week 1 that I would have liked to see. I may lean on a player like Melvin Gordon or JuJu Smith-Schuster from this game, but not much else.
Targets: Melvin Gordon, JuJu Smith-Schuster, both defenses, and Benny Snell, Jr. (if James Conner is out)
Fades: Most of both teams’ offenses
Must-Owns: None
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While it was ultimately rewarding, based on our expectations, to see the Buccaneers struggle last week, it feels wrong to already be giving up on them completely. This is still Tom Brady with a loaded offense at his disposal. Now, they get to take on a Panthers team — who did surprise us a bit last week offensively — that is ripe for a beating. The Panthers allowed 34 points to a Raiders offense that doesn’t have near the same level of talent as this Buccaneers team. The Panthers may score a decent amount of points playing from behind, but I’m expecting a big game for Brady and the Buccaneers offense this week.
Targets: DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel, Tom Brady, Ronald Jones II and Chris Godwin (if healthy)
Fades: Panthers Defense
Must-Owns: Scotty Miller
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We saw how much offense can thrive in a game featuring the Carolina Panthers when they and the Las Vegas Raiders combined for 64 points on Opening Day. Now, if we add the pass-happy offense of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers into the equation, how can we not look to this game for DFS potential? I never like to go too overboard with an ‘obvious’ matchup, but I’m sure I will have players from either Tampa Bay or Carolina in my lineups.
Targets: All offensive players
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: At least one player from this game
Washington Football Team at Arizona Cardinals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It seems fitting that these teams should meet in Week 2 as they pulled off probably the two biggest upsets of Week 1. The difficulty here is that the Washington defense is legitimately good, as we said it should be, but their offense is still clearly a major work in progress. Their strengths and weaknesses seem to completely offset that of their opponent, and that leaves us in a bit of an uncomfortable situation. Ultimately, outside of possibly mixing in the high volume guys in this game, I don’t think there is any reason to target this game from a fantasy perspective.
Targets: Kyler Murray
Fades: Everyone Else
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I keep pointing to the defense of the Washington Football Team as the way in which they will be competitive in games, and it will undoubtedly take a big defensive effort to slow down the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. Because of the respect I’m giving Washington — and the amount of targets to go around in Arizona — I’m probably shying away from most of the offensive players from either team.
Targets: Possibly Washington’s defense
Fades: Arizona’s offense as a whole, but small exposure is fine
Must-Owns: None
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Both of these teams may be 1-0, but do not think for one second they are even in the same stratosphere of talent. The Chiefs looked just as good as their Super Bowl winning selves, and the Chargers just barely held on to beat the Bengals in a game they probably didn’t deserve to win. The Chiefs are going to score at will like they always do, and I don’t have any faith that Tyrod Taylor can play keep up. This should be a comfortable win for the Chiefs.
Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry
Fades: Chargers Defense
Must-Owns: None, but owning a piece of the Chiefs offense is a must
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s going to be virtually impossible to have the Kansas City Chiefs in a main slate of games and not use some of their players in a DFS lineup. The reality, however, is that the Chiefs only ranked 15th in yards gained in Week 1, and the Chargers’ defense was not a pushover when these two teams met in 2019. Still, offensive from Kansas City is a must.
Targets: Chiefs’ offense
Fades: Chargers’ offense
Must-Owns: At least one player from Kansas City
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Between what happened when these teams met last season, and how each team looked in Week 1, this game should be an easy blowout for the Ravens. With that said, it feels too easy to settle on that, and I don’t think the Ravens pull off back-to-back blowouts to kick off their season. Coming off a mini bye week, I think Deshaun Watson and the Texans are in a position to not necessarily win, but to play a farm more competitive game than most people are expecting.
Targets: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown, Deshaun Watson, David Johnson, Will Fuller V and Jordan Akins
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m not sure if the Houston Texans can actually pull off an ‘upset’ of the Baltimore Ravens, but I do expect a much better effort from Houston than we saw the last time it went against Baltimore. If you recall, that was the 41-7 thrashing that was both the most points allowed and fewest points scored for the Texans in the regular season. Baltimore’s offense has shown no signs of slowing down, and I’m looking for multiple options from both teams in this game.
Targets: Deshaun Watson, David Johnson, Will Fuller, and the Ravens’ offense
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: These are two of the teams I am pretty much always willing to trust, but this game feels like one that is going to disappoint from a fantasy perspective. Both of these teams are built primarily to be run based offenses. It was great to see the Seahawks let Russell Wilson be the focal point last week, but since the moment that game ended, they have been preaching that they need to run the ball more than they did. I don’t think this is a very low scoring game, but it doesn’t seem like one that will have many fireworks either.
Targets: Cam Newton, James White, Russell Wilson and Chris Carson
Fades: Most Pass Catchers
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m not sure we’ll get an outright explosion of offense on Sunday Night Football, but I’m ‘all-in’ on the game being higher-scoring than it seems at first glance. I’m convinced that New England Patriots quarterback Cam Newton was not showing his full arsenal in Week 1, and I will never expect Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson to be stopped with ease. If I do go with a defense from this game in a ‘contrarian’ play for a Primetime lineup, it will be the Patriots’ defense against Wilson. Still, my first lean is toward the offense.
Targets: Russell Wilson and some of Seattle’s offense, Cam Newton, Julian Edelman, Patriots’ defense
Fades: Seattle’s defense
Must-Owns: None
New Orleans Saints at Las Vegas Raiders
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Saints may be without Michael Thomas, but this Raiders defense just allowed 30 points to Teddy Bridgewater in his debut with the Panthers, so excuse me if I still expect the Saints’ offense to put up plenty of points. The big question mark for the Raiders is going to be whether or not Josh Jacobs can control the game on the ground against a tough Saints defense. No matter what, his involvement in the passing game last week makes him an easy target once again in what figures to be a fairly high-scoring game.
Targets: Drew Brees, Taysom Hill, Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook, Josh Jacobs and Darren Waller
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Alvin Kamara
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Over the last few days, Monday Night Football morphed into one of my favorite setups of the week. The New Orleans Saints carry tremendous name value and, when people combine their fantasy superstars with the realization that Teddy Bridgewater and the Panthers scored 30 points against the Las Vegas Raiders, most of the Saints will be heavily-owned. But, I must point out that the Saints actually tallied the sixth-fewest yards of offense on Opening Day. There is a chance that New Orleans is relatively quiet on Monday night. That allows the Raiders’ players to be a worthwhile ‘contrarian’ stack.
Targets: Las Vegas’ offense, Drew Brees
Fades: Most of the Saints’ offense
Must-Owns: Josh Jacobs