Every so often, we are treated to a schedule that has both fantasy-relevant and generally exciting football games. Week 3 is one of these weeks. If we aren’t looking at a gold mine in terms of fantasy potential, then we still have an epic showdown to watch.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 3 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Looking at the first two weeks of the season, it seems very unfair that the Bears are undefeated and the Falcons are winless. I fully expect the Falcons offense to continue putting up points relentlessly, but I also expect a better showing from their defense this week. This is the first game this defense does not have to deal with an elite offense, so expect a better showing this week.
Targets: Matt Ryan, Julio Jones (if healthy), Calvin Ridley and Hayden Hurst
Fades: Bears Offense
Must-Owns: Todd Gurley II
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m all about the perception of a certain team not jiving with the reality, and the fact that the Chicago Bears have allowed the third-fewest points is the perfect example of perception and reality being misplaced. The Bears rank 16th in yards allowed and 19th in yards-per-rush. I’m not afraid to start an offensive player from the Atlanta Falcons in this game. I’m also not afraid to turn to Chicago for some offense against a Falcons defense allowing the second-most total yards in the league.
Targets: Allen Robinson, Todd Gurley, Calvin Ridley
Fades: Cautiously, both quarterbacks
Must-Owns: None
Los Angeles Rams at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Both of these teams are 2-0 to start the year, but the Bills wins against the Jets and the Dolphins have not impressed me. Josh Allen has made some plays, but he has taken advantage of weak defenses thus far. Now, Allen and this Bills offense have to handle a defense that is more than capable of fighting back as well as an offense that won’t be constantly giving them the ball right back. I fully expect the Rams to go into Buffalo and upset the Bills in a relatively unexciting game for fantasy purposes.
Targets: Darrell Henderson Jr. (depending on the health of the other Rams running backs), Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee
Fades: Bills Offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s hard to gauge how well the Buffalo Bills’ defense is actually playing considering the level of competition it has faced. Or lack thereof. Still, it’s not likely to crumble, and it means I won’t go overboard with offense from the Los Angeles Rams. Only Cooper Kupp makes sense because of his consistent targets — at least five in each of the first two games — and Buffalo’s run defense — which has allowed the third-fewest yards on the ground.
Targets: Cooper Kupp and Stefon Diggs
Fades: Most of both offenses
Must-Owns: None
Washington Football Team at Cleveland Browns
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Despite starting the season high on this Washington team, I am expecting them to be mostly dominated once again this week. The Browns are clearly a flawed team, but they have high-end talent on both sides of the ball. Washington, on the other hand, has almost no talent whatsoever on offense which is clear by the fact that they have the second fewest yards of offense through the first two weeks — while not playing against very good defenses. Washington’s defense will do their best, but the rushing attack of this elite Browns duo will eventually overwhelm them.
Targets: Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt and Browns Defense
Fades: Washington Football Team
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Simply put, if the Cleveland Browns want to avoid being a laughing stock for the second consecutive season, they cannot lose games against opponents like the Washington Football Team. Indeed, Washington’s defense is good, but, if the Browns want to be taken seriously, then the opponent’s strength won’t matter. I refuse to choose between the running backs in Cleveland, but it’s obvious that they will continue to run the ball. This works with both the game flow — if the Browns are winning — and the matchup — Washington defends the pass better than the run. On the other side of the game, the Browns are better against the run and porous against the pass. Terry McLaurin and his 12 receptions through two games are on my list.
Targets: Terry McLaurin — who might slide into ‘must-own’ territory based on the rest of my lineup build, Odell Beckham, Jr., Kareem Hunt, and Nick Chubb
Fades: Everyone else on Washington’s offense
Must-Owns: None, but McLaurin might be the one
Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Vikings are a team I almost never expect much from, but I am ready for them to dominate the Titans this week. The Titans are barely deserving of their 2-0 record, and the Vikings have too many talented players and experienced coaches to not correct their early season mistakes. Simply looking at their records will force most people to think that the Titans win this game easily, but my money will be on the exact opposite outcome.
Targets: Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson
Fades: Titans Offense
Must-Owns: Dalvin Cook
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Put yourself inside the facility of the Minnesota Vikings. Your team is 0-2 and has the third-fewest rushing attempts in the league. Compare this to last year when your team was 10-6 with the fourth-most rushing attempts. Clearly, the difference is staggering. The Vikings will run the football on Sunday, and it makes Dalvin Cook a must-own. Considering how poorly the Vikings’ defense has played — especially against the pass — Ryan Tannehill and the Tennessee Titans’ offense is also worth a look.
Targets: Tennessee’s passing attack
Fades: Derrick Henry
Must-Owns: Dalvin Cook
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This was always going to be one of the harder games of the week to get a great read on, but looking at all of the injury question marks at this time, it is nearly impossible to have any faith. No matter who winds up playing for either team, I’m expecting the Patriots to find a way to win, but outside of Cam Newton, there is not a single person in this game that is entirely healthy or trustworthy from a fantasy perspective.
Targets: Cam Newton
Fades: Everyone else barring helpful news on the injury front.
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Through two weeks, it’s become clear that New England Patriots quarterback Cam Newton cannot be ignored. He has four rushing touchdowns in the first two games, and the Patriots will not stop running with him at the goal line. He’s in-play until we see a reason to stop looking in his direction. Along the same lines, the Las Vegas Raiders only looked in the direction of tight end Darren Waller and, while he has been a favorite of ours and this column, it’s possible that head coach Bill Belichick takes away Waller’s production. The good news for the Raiders is that their offensive line continues to open holes for running back Josh Jacobs.
Targets: Cam Newton, Julian Edelman, David Carr, Henry Ruggs III, and Josh Jacobs
Fades: Darren Waller, despite how many times I have recommended him in the past
Must-Owns: None
San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: These two teams are right at the top of the list when it comes to those who have been the most impacted by injuries thus far. A couple of weeks ago we would have fully expected a blowout in this game, but given the significant injuries to key players on both sides, this game may not be as lopsided as originally expected. Volume should be pretty easy to pinpoint in this matchup, so some fantasy value could be had.
Targets: Jeff Wilson Jr., Jordan Reed, Darius Slayton and Golden Tate
Fades: Giants Running Backs
Must-Owns: Jerrick McKinnon
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Even if Jimmy Garoppolo plays, the San Francisco 49ers are likely to lean more on the run than anything else. With Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman out, this puts Jerrick McKinnon and Jeff Wilson in the spotlight. Wilson might be the sneakier play for his five touchdowns on only 30 touches in 2019. The New York Giants’ defense has quietly been excellent, and I would look to them again if Nick Mullens starts under center for the 49ers.
Targets: Jerrick McKinnon, Jeff Wilson, Jr., and New York’s defense
Fades: Most of both offenses
Must-Owns: None
Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I have been down on the eagles all season so far, but I’m expecting a big overcorrection this week. Despite my belief that they were highly overrated, they are clearly a far superior team than the Bengals, and I’m expecting an easy victory for them this week.
Targets: A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, Carson Wentz, Desean Jackson, Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert
Fades: Joe Mixon
Must-Owns: Miles Sanders
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As I wrote in my picks column, the Philadelphia Eagles are on a historically bad pace of turning the ball over. This level of poor production not only won’t continue, but it has led to one of the worst times-of-possession in the league. If the Eagles’ offense can stay on the field, it has great potential on Sunday against a Cincinnati Bengals defense ranked 22nd in yards allowed. On the other side of the game, Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow threw a ridiculous 61 passes in Week 2. I’m sure Cincinnati prefers that Burrow not need to throw as often as he did, but we will take any volume we can get if looking for fantasy upside.
Targets: Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Carson Wentz, and Zach Ertz
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Miles Sanders
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Texans have been dealt just about as tough of a schedule as possible to start the season. The Steelers are no easy task, but compared to the past two weeks it is a much more manageable game. I expect a far more competitive showing, and quite possibly a victory from the Texans, but I don’t see this being a high-powered offensive game for either side.
Targets: David Johnson and James Conner
Fades: Passing Game for Both Teams
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Looking at the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans in general, there are fantasy points to be had. The problem is that neither team — especially neither offense — has played to its expected level. Pittsburgh ranks 14th in yards gained, while Houston is 24th. The Texans clearly have the tougher path to offense on Sunday because of their matchup with the Steelers’ second-ranked defense — in yards allowed — but Houston is also 0-2 and seeking any momentum before the season spirals out-of-control.
Targets: Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller V, David Johnson, James Conner, and JuJu Smith-Schuster
Fades: Ben Roethlisberger
Must-Owns: None
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I don’t always love siding with the obvious pick, but I simply do not see a way in which the Colts don’t dominate this game. They have been one of the best teams in the league so far this season on both sides of the ball, and the Jets have looked utterly lost in all facets.
Targets: Philip Rivers, Jonathan Taylor, T.Y Hilton and Colts Defense
Fades: New York Jets
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Similarly to the aforementioned Texans, the 0-2 New York Jets are looking for anything to jump-start their lifeless season. The problem is that they simply have no playmakers on the offensive side of the ball to do so. Still, I might dive into New York’s offense for some cheap players on a team that will likely be playing from behind for the majority of the contest. Otherwise, Jonathan Taylor is the obvious play from this game.
Targets: Jonathan Taylor, Jamison Crowder (if healthy), and possibly Frank Gore
Fades: Philip Rivers
Must-Owns: None
Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Given how he looked last week, the outrageous comments his coach had for him and the matchup against this incredibly vulnerable Panthers team, Justin Herbert is one of the easiest guys to like this week. The Chargers figure to control this game throughout and be playing with a lead which should put the ball in Teddy Bridgewater’s hands a lot which is something we should be getting used to by now.
Targets: Teddy Birdgewater, DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, Austin Ekeler, Joshua Kelley, Kennan Allen and Hunter Henry
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Mike Davis and Justin Herbert
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Another 0-2 team is reaching ‘desperation mode’ as the Carolina Panthers need to find a way to move the football without running back Christian McCaffrey. Mike Davis is the logical pick to fill the void not only because he stepped in when McCaffrey was injured, but due to the likely game script where the Panthers might need to throw often. Davis’ eight targets on the season — all in Week 2 — put him just behind McCaffrey in that department, anyway. D.J. Moore leading the team with 22 targets through two games is also intriguing. “Intriguing” is the key word for the Los Angeles Chargers, as well, since rookie quarterback Justin Herbert is slated to get his second career start. Subjectively, Herbert looked good, and I’m sure people will buy into him heavily, but I’m probably shying away in Week 3. Head coach Anthony Lynn’s comments about wanting Tyrod Taylor to start over Herbert give me pause that he’ll let the rookie throw as much as we’d like to see. Then again, Herbert could go out and win the job with his own actions.
Targets: Teddy Bridgewater, D.J. Moore, Mike Davis, and Keenan Allen
Fades: Chargers’ Defense
Must-Owns: None
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is undoubtedly one of the less appealing games for me this week. The Buccaneers’ offense is clearly still a work in progress and is likely to be a headache throughout the year as we try to decipher which player has a big role in any given game. Couple that with the fact that the Broncos talented offense is decimated by injuries right now, and there really isn’t a lot for me to like in this game outside of possibly the Buccaneers’ defense.
Targets: Buccaneers Defense
Fades: All Offensive Players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The loss of Denver Broncos quarterback Drew Lock lowers the ceiling for all offensive players from Denver, and it makes it a necessity for the Broncos’ defense to clamp down and stop the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense. This is truly a risk-reward game, as Denver’s defense only ranks 21st in yards allowed, while the Buccaneers are built to score. We’ve seen the high altitude aid the Broncos in home games in September, but we also know that Tampa Bay’s attack is relentless.
Targets: Buccaneers’ Defense and some skill players from Tampa Bay
Fades: Denver’s offense
Must-Owns: None
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It feels wrong to say given how the first two weeks have played out, but this game feels like a total trap spot for a big upset. The Lions certainly owe the Cardinals some payback after Week 1 of last season, and an upset this week would seem fitting. With Kenny Golladay expected back in the lineup, the Lions offense has the talent to keep up with the Cardinals, and could lead them to a win, or at least a competitive game.
Targets: Matthew Stafford, Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr., T.J. Hockenson, Kyler Murray, Kenyan Drake and DeAndre Hopkins
Fades: Lions Running Backs
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The road to an ‘upset’ by the Detroit Lions most likely comes from an offense that outpaces that of the Arizona Cardinals, and we’ve actually seen this play out in the past. The problem is that the Lions simply cannot put an opponent away. I suspect this will be one of the more heavily targeted games for fantasy purposes and, while I agree, I’m leaning on the Lions’ offense more in my lineups. I’m also pumping the brakes on the Kerryon Johnson love, as he is still in a running back committee and not necessarily showing signs of dominating carries anytime soon.
Targets: Basically both offenses
Fades: Kerryon Johnson
Must-Owns: None, but someone from this game is likely a must
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Not much needs to be said here besides “fire away for this game.” Russell Wilson is seemingly unstoppable, and the Cowboys’ offense showed exactly what they are capable of last week in their dramatic comeback victory. For as good as the Seahawks’ offense has been, their defense has allowed the most passing yards per game thus far, so the Cowboys offense should be able to move the ball effectively throughout this game.
Targets: All Offensive Players
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: Players From This Game
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This should be a fun one. The Seattle Seahawks have quarterback Russell Wilson at the helm and, while I usually recommend him because of his consistent greatness, he’s playing at an even higher level right now. Everyone from Seattle’s offense is in-play. The same can be said about the Dallas Cowboys and their offense. Seattle’s defense ranks last in the league in yards allowed, and Dallas’ offense has tallied the second-most yards. It should surprise no one if multiple players from this matchup vastly over-deliver for their prices.
Targets: Everyone on offense
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None, but at least one player from this game is a must
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: At first glance, this is a game people are going to expect to be filled with scoring, but that is not how I’m seeing it playing out right now. The Packers’ offense has been great as we’ve expected here, but they simply cannot continue this pace, and the Saints’ eighth-ranked defense in total yards against per game should be up to the challenge of slowing them down. The Saints’ offense, and Drew Brees especially, has not looked as elite as we’ve become used to seeing, and even in a decent matchup it is hard to have a ton of faith in this offense outside of Alvin Kamara right now.
Targets: Aaron Jones and Alvin Kamara
Fades: Both Quarterbacks
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I always look at the Primetime games as a pair that will be placed in the same tournament. With that, we have two outstanding matchups that should lead to points. We need to be careful. Rarely do two separate games go exactly according to plan. One will deviate. Personally, I’ll split my lineups where some are stacking Sunday Night Football and the others are stacking Monday Night. Looking solely at Sunday, Aaron Rodgers is an obvious choice as he is not slowing down from his torrid pace. The problem is that Drew Brees makes sense for the New Orleans Saints as he returns home after two mediocre performances — by his standards, anyway.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, all wide receivers from Green Bay, Aaron Jones, and Alvin Kamara, I’m just not overloading from this game
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Davante Adams (if healthy)
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While neither of these defenses are slouches, it is nearly impossible to imagine this isn’t a high-scoring game. Both of these offenses are so talented and unique that there is really no way to completely slow them down. Even on their off days, these offenses are a lock for 20 points, so I don’t see how we can expect anything less than a back and forth offensive showing from these teams. It’s hard to say with any confidence which team wins this game, but we know enough about each offense to know that no matter the game script, there are consistent players to target.
Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Lamar Jackson, Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews
Fades: Ravens Running Backs (not because they can’t succeed, but because we have no way to know how their usage will shake out this week)
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As I just wrote for Sunday Night Football, we must expect one of the two Primetime games to disappoint in terms of fantasy potential, so be prepared to lean on one game over the other. If we’re targeting defense in Monday Night Football, then we likely have to roll with the Baltimore Ravens’ defense and rushing attack — by contrast, this would mean the Kansas City Chiefs have to throw the ball. Personally, I’m never counting Patrick Mahomes out of a game, and I’m prepared to litter my lineup with skill position players from Kansas City.
Targets: Baltimore’s Defense (if picking Baltimore to win), Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram, J.K. Dobbins, and everyone from Kansas City
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None